Myanmar's ruling generals are facing unprecedented challenges as armed resistance groups gain more control in the north and the economy stalls. Experts say the rapidly shifting situation is giving China more leverage over the nation’s ruling military junta.
Earlier this week, Myanmar's junta confirmed its loss of control of a regional military base in the northern Shan State – a key area for China's Belt and Road Initiative and border trade.
That setback was the latest in the northern part of the country where the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) says the Three Brotherhood Alliance, an ethnic group coalition, has been making steady advances since late last year.
Between October and December 2023, USIP says, rebels gained control of more than 7,700 square miles, an area including crucial border crossings and trade routes between China and Myanmar.
By June, the Three Brotherhood Alliance expanded its control to central Myanmar, including Lashio, Kyauk Mae and areas near Mandalay, the country's second-largest city.
Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington told VOA Burmese that the opposition forces' capture of the strategic city of Lashio has "symbolic meaning."
"It is on the highway between Mandalay and the Chinese border of Ruili. It's a critically important town. It's also the headquarters of the Northeastern Command," Abuza said.
On Thursday, China dispatched its special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, and he met with Myanmar's military leader, senior general Min Aung Hlaing.
According to the junta's official statement, their discussions focused on election preparations and maintaining stability at the border and the rest of the country. It did not, however, mention China's sponsored peace talks with the Three Brotherhood Alliance, initially scheduled for the end of July but reportedly boycotted by the regime. China has been pushing for the next round of talks to occur soon.
The junta's struggles have led to an increasing reliance on China for support, experts say.
In April 2024, Min Aung Hlaing offered to restart the long-delayed Myitsone Dam project in Kachin State to appeal to Chinese interests.
The China-backed Myitsone Dam was put on hold in 2011 following protests over its possible environmental and social impact. The loss of the project was a big setback for Beijing; 90% of the electricity the project was expected to generate was supposed to go to China.
"Min Aung Hlaing's recent messaging around the Myitsone Dam is quite instructive. He's trying to use economic concessions to compel the Chinese side to give additional support to the Myanmar military strategically," said Jason Tower of USIP, who has closely watched China-Myanmar relations.
China has also shown growing interest in engaging with former military elites including Thein Sein and Than Shwe, signaling Beijing's possible concerns about Min Aung Hlaing's leadership.
Former President Thein Sein visited Beijing in July, and the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar visited former military chief Than Shwe in April.
In a recent USIP analysis, Tower argued that "by inviting Thein Sein, Beijing sent a strong message that it hopes Myanmar will return to a pathway of reform like the military started on in 2008."
Abuza agreed, and said he believes China is looking for elections in Myanmar as an "off-ramp."
"I think the Chinese are looking for a way that Min Aung Hlaing and [Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defense] Soe Win are retired. A group of more pragmatic generals looks for elections with the opposition as a transitional process to end this civil war," Abuza said. "I think the Chinese believe that the devil you know is better than the one you don't."
