Washington's most dangerous adversaries may be working together more closely than ever before, but U.S. intelligence analysts think that for now, they are falling short of forming a tight-knit alliance that could more effectively counter the United States.
Concerns among the United States and its allies about growing cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been increasing steadily since Moscow launched its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — sustained by intelligence showing Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang providing Russia with technology, missiles, drones and even troops for the war effort.
The former commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific earlier this year went as far as to describe the growing ties between the four U.S. adversaries as a nascent "axis of evil."
Yet U.S. intelligence officials believe the axis, in some ways, has been bogged down by its own shortcomings.
"They're not acting as a bloc," said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, speaking Thursday in Washington at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"We don't see them as a sort of four-part alliance or something along those lines," she said. "We don't see them likely as becoming allies in the same way that we are allies with our NATO partners, for example — that kind of level of interoperability and military collaboration."
U.S. intelligence analysts, however, still see the axis as a concern on several fronts.
Haines said the increased cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has contributed to a further erosion of international norms around weapons of mass destruction.
Where Russia and China were once more willing to cooperate with the United States and the West on nuclear counterproliferation, Moscow and Beijing now seem more inclined to give Iran and North Korea additional leeway.
"In large part, that's because Russia is now beholden to some extent to both the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] and to Iran for advanced weapons, for ammunition, for things that they need in the context of their fight with Ukraine," Haines said.
"They're less likely to push back," she said. "And of course, we've been watching the degree to which they actually, for example, accept DPRK as a nuclear weapon power."
Haines said the increased cooperation among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has helped all four countries to evade sanctions.
And she said there are even some indications that Russia is willing to take action that would allow Beijing to surpass the U.S. in critical areas.
"They're willing to potentially put more on the table with China to give them things that could actually make China sort of leapfrog in certain technology areas or in other spaces that are of concern to us," Haines said.
Washington's NATO allies have sounded similar alarms in recent months, with some NATO officials telling VOA the axis has already sparked the beginnings of a new global arms race.
Russian sabotage
There are also ongoing concerns about the willingness of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to engage in so-called gray zone activity.
A declassified U.S. National Intelligence Estimate issued in July warned that the next five to six years are "likely to feature more frequent, diverse and damaging acts of coercion and subversion — particularly by China, Iran, Russia and North Korea — below what constitutes armed conflict but outside the bounds of historically legitimate statecraft."
Haines on Thursday said Russian gray zone activities — including efforts at sabotage in Europe — have been "increasing across the board."
"Russia has just invested money, personnel, just an extraordinary amount of effort in this area and just will continue to do so," she said. "And even though we are getting a little better at disrupting some of this activity, we're certainly not, I think, where it makes anybody really comfortable."
US presidential transition
U.S. intelligence analysts are keeping a close watch on how other countries are behaving as Washington prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to take office in January.
"There are certain actors that are trying to pre-position themselves for a next administration," Haines said.
She said intelligence analysts are preparing reports on the activity to share with the incoming Trump administration, as well as keeping an eye out for the potential that some countries may seek to escalate tensions during the transition period.
"Typically, for example, the DPRK engages in some provocative action during transitions," Haines said. "This is sort of one of the classic things we're constantly looking at."
