Geert Wilders, the outspoken Dutch far-right leader who has frequently been compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump, is set to begin negotiations on forming a government after his shock win in Wednesday’s election.
However, Wilders is still dozens of seats short of a working majority, and it remains unclear whether other parties are willing to work with him and enter into a coalition government. Negotiations are expected to take several months.
Political earthquake
Dutch voters sent political shockwaves across Europe late Wednesday as exit polls showed a clear lead for the Freedom Party, led by Wilders. His party won 37 of the 150 seats available, easily beating his closest rival, a joint Labor and Green party ticket, which secured 25 seats.
The center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte won 24 seats in a disappointing night.
Wilders has long been a provocative figure in Dutch politics but has never before enjoyed this level of success. Following the result, the 60-year-old doubled down on his anti-migrant rhetoric.
“The people have spoken. The people said, ‘We are sick and tired of this. We will make sure the Dutch people will be number one again,’” he said.
“The Dutchman also has hope. The hope is that people get their country back. That we make sure that the Netherlands is for the Dutch again. That we will limit the asylum tsunami and migration,” Wilders told cheering supporters in The Hague as the scale of his victory became clear Wednesday.
'Less Islam'
Wilders’ party manifesto promises “less Islam in the Netherlands.” In 2016 he was convicted of inciting hatred and discrimination after leading a crowd chanting for fewer Moroccans in the country.
Minority groups have voiced concern at the election result, in a country where Muslims make up around 5% of the population. “We have great concerns about the future of Islam and Muslims in the Netherlands,” Muhsin Koktas of the Dutch Muslim organization CMO told Reuters.
Following his victory Wednesday, Wilders appeared to tone down his anti-Islam rhetoric. “If I become prime minister, I will be that for all Dutch people, regardless of who they are, their gender or religion, where they come from. For everyone,” he said.
Softened tone
That civilized tone won him voters during the campaign, said Rachid Azrout, a political analyst at the University of Amsterdam.
“Basically, what he said is, ‘Of course, my hatred for Islam will still be a part of me, but I will put it aside and that doesn't need to be part of the government. So that way, I can become a more viable coalition partner,’” Azrout told VOA.
The election was held after the former government collapsed in July in a disagreement over a cap on the number of family members permitted to join immigrants in the country.
“Because the government collapsed on the topic of immigration, that made the topic really important in the campaign. And so then actually, Geert Wilders was the one that actually profited from that,” said Azrout.
Trump comparisons
Wilders’ mane of dyed blonde hair and conservative political agenda have drawn comparisons with Trump — a figure the Dutch politician has frequently praised in the past. Wilders’ program pledges “Netherlands first,” echoing the slogans of populist parties in Europe, the United States and beyond.
“This is the international trend — a huge, anti-establishment populist revolt all over the place, all over the world,” Rene Cuperus of the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch policy analyst group in The Hague, told Reuters.
Wilders has campaigned for the Netherlands to leave the European Union. He opposes Ukraine’s proposed membership of the bloc and wants to stop Dutch military support for Kyiv.
However, any coalition agreement will likely force Wilders to soften his stance.
“A large majority of the Dutch population, but also most of the political parties, are very much in favor of the Netherlands being part of the European Union, and also that we should support Ukraine in the war against Russia,” said analyst Azrout.
“And so, yes, Geert Wilders and his party, they say we should have a ‘Nexit’ — so that the Netherlands should leave the European Union — that we should have the guilder [old currency] back instead of the euro and not support Ukraine. But he realized, of course, that he is alone in that sense,” Azrout said.
Coalition talks
Wilders' path to power will likely depend on whether the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, under new leader Dilan Yesilgoz — the daughter of Turkish immigrants — is willing to form a coalition with the far-right party, along with the centrist New Social Contract party under Pieter Omtzigt.
Both Yesilgoz and Omtzigt said during the campaign that they did not want to work with Wilders, although his clear victory could pressure them into opening coalition talks.
The center-left has already ruled out any coalition with Wilders and said its job was now to defend democracy. Analysts say a broad coalition between left and right parties is seen as unlikely at this stage.
Party leaders are due to meet on Friday to choose an “explorer,” an independent go-between who will hear from each party on what possibilities they envisage in potential coalition talks.
Meanwhile, far-right leaders across Europe sent Wilders their congratulations.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said the “winds of change” had arrived, while France's Marine Le Pen said it was a “spectacular performance.”
