The issue of who will govern Gaza if Israel succeeds in dethroning Hamas poses one of the most challenging questions facing the world’s diplomats, with Israel, the United States and the region’s Arab leaders offering seemingly contradictory solutions.
The United States has proposed that the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority should ultimately govern Gaza and floated the idea that some international coalition — presumably including Arab states — provide security in the interim. Arab leaders have demanded an immediate end to the fighting without addressing the governance question, and they have rejected any security role in the territory.
And Israel, while reluctant to occupy Gaza as it did before 2005, has suggested it would maintain a security role there for some indefinite period.
U.S. President Joe Biden laid out his vision for the future of Gaza and of Israel-Palestinian relations in a November 18 commentary in The Washington Post, arguing that the Palestinian people “deserve a state of their own and a future free from Hamas.”
“Gaza and the West Bank should be reunited under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority, as we all work toward a two-state solution,” Biden wrote.
In the meantime, he continued, “The international community must commit resources to support the people of Gaza in the immediate aftermath of this crisis, including interim security measures, and establish a reconstruction mechanism to sustainably meet Gaza’s long-term needs.”
Arab and Muslim leaders, represented by a ministerial delegation that is touring the five permanent U.N. Security Council states, are calling for an immediate end to the fighting and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza but have had little to say about long-term governance of the territory.
While agreeing with Biden on the need to establish a Palestinian state, participation in an interim security force for Gaza has been soundly rejected by some countries in the delegation — made up of Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Nigeria, the Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the secretary-general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
"Let me be very clear,” said Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi at the Manama Dialogue, a November 18 security conference sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“I know speaking on behalf of Jordan but having discussed this issue with many, with almost all our brethren, there'll be no Arab troops going to Gaza. None. We're not going to be seen as the enemy," he said.
As for the long-term governance of the territory, Safadi asked, "How could anybody talk about the future of Gaza when we do not know what kind of Gaza will be left once this aggression ends?"
Israel, for its part, has acknowledged that it began its military drive to end Hamas’ rule in Gaza without a clear plan for what would replace it.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News earlier this month, however, that he thought Israel would assume “overall security responsibility” for Gaza after the war for an “indefinite period.”
The Arab and Muslim leaders, wary of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition in Israel, doubt the willingness of the United States and its allies to bring sufficient pressure on Israel to see an end to the war and the beginning of serious talks on a two-state solution, according to Elham Fakhro, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
“Arab states perceive a lack of commitment from the United States and the European Union in pressuring Israel to implement these measures,” Fakhro told VOA.
“Consequently, they are turning to alternative diplomatic channels, including engagement with China, to convey their concerns. The hope is that international pressure can sway the U.S. and, subsequently, influence Israel to reconsider its current course of action.”
While the humanitarian crisis in Gaza weighs heavily on the Arab leaders, that is not their only concern, Fakhro added. She said they also fear the potential for the conflict to spill over into the broader region, causing widespread instability.
Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told VOA that most Arab governments view the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank as dysfunctional, which increases their reluctance to play a direct role in taking charge of Gaza after the war.
Landis said the Palestinian Authority is demanding that those Hamas leaders who remain alive after the war be part of any future negotiations over Gaza, adding that “Arab governments are likely to support the Palestinian Authority in its demands.”
“Arab governments have demanded that a two-state solution be implemented that recognizes the 1948 borders of Israel. They insist that the Palestinians must have self-determination and sovereignty,” he said.
“This is something that the present Israeli government has refused, which creates an impasse.”
