Global oil markets are watching the conflict between Israel and Hamas cautiously, with prices slightly elevated from last week but still considerably below recent highs, as the brutal conflict in southern Israel and Gaza unfolds.
Brent crude oil futures, one of the benchmarks for the global oil market, were trading at around $88 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon, up from $84.58 when markets closed on Friday, the day before Hamas militants staged an unprecedented raid into Israeli territory, massacring hundreds of people and dragging as many as 150 hostages into Gaza.
Prior to the Hamas attack and the all-out Israeli response comprising thousands of airstrikes in Gaza, oil prices had been trending downward after hitting a recent high of nearly $95 in late September.
While neither Israel nor Gaza produces significant amounts of oil, experts warned that unrest in the region could affect the oil market. This may yet prove true in the current conflict, especially if Iran is found to be complicit in the assault, as some news organizations have reported.
While Iranian leaders publicly praised the Hamas attack, they said the government was not involved. Similarly, a Hamas spokesperson said the operation was conceived of and launched independently.
Watching closely
Experts told VOA that the conflict could impact the price of oil in several ways, in particular if it expanded beyond the borders of Israel and Gaza.
"The main thing we would be looking for is if disruption or conflict spread to the wider region," said David Doherty, head of oil and renewable fuels at BloombergNEF, which supplies strategic research to market participants.
"The Middle East not only supplies close to one-third of the world's crude, but also more than 42% of medium-heavy oil, a favorite of refiners to maximize production of jet fuel and diesel," Doherty wrote in an email. "The number of alternate suppliers the markets can tap for medium oil is limited."
He said Russia used to supply 22% of the world's medium crude but has been blocked from selling it on the open market because of its invasion of Ukraine.
"So, any further disruption could impact prices of these fuels, and particularly of medium crude," Doherty said.
Iranian oil
Experts will be watching closely for any indication that Iran played a role in the attack, because proof that it did could further constrain Tehran's ability to get its crude to market.
"One thing that's happened over the last year or so is that we've been getting a lot more Iranian oil on the market despite U.S. sanctions," said James W. Coleman, a professor at Southern Methodist University's Dedman School of Law in Dallas.
"Most people think that that's because the U.S. has been kind of easing up on its enforcement of sanctions with a goal of lowering oil prices and potentially leading up to some kind of deal with Iran," Coleman told VOA.
"One question is whether that reverses," he said. "Does the U.S. clamp down on those sanctions that we have on Iranian oil again? Does that take a million barrels a day off the market? If so, that would be a big deal."
Saudi Arabia as wild card
As the leader of the OPEC oil cartel, Saudi Arabia earlier this year persuaded other oil-producing economies to drastically cut production, driving prices higher. This means that major exporters, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, currently have significant excess capacity, estimated to be up to the equivalent of 4 million barrels per day.
Should Iranian oil be taken off the market, they would be in a position to close that supply gap. The question is whether they would.
"Our view is that Saudi Arabia, along with OPEC, will likely maintain its position until at least the end of the year," wrote Doherty. "Oil prices are in a position they are usually comfortable with. However, if prices trended higher as a result of dislodged, or further restricted barrels of Iranian barrels, Saudi or Russia could be enticed to produce more and send more volume to China — the largest buyer of Iranian crude. But, this is speculation."
Crackdown on Russia
Another factor that could disrupt the oil market is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's revelation Monday that the U.S. was poised to crack down on the sale of Russian oil in defiance of international sanctions.
The U.S. and its allies have placed a "price cap" of $60 per barrel on Russian crude in order to limit Russia's ability to fund the war in Ukraine. Russian oil, however, has been making it to market at prices above the cap.
Yellen told The Wall Street Journal, "We are looking at enforcement very carefully, and we want to make sure that market participants are aware we take this price cap seriously. And, to the extent Western services are used, we mean business about abiding by the cap."
U.S. intervention that has the effect of removing Russian oil from the market could also affect prices.
