Ivory Coast expects to record one of the worst mid-crop cocoa harvests of the last 15 years this season with production seen no higher than 300,000 metric tons compared with a yearly average of 500,000 tons, regulator and industry sources said.
A poor harvest could add upward pressure to cocoa prices, which are already around record highs after nearly tripling last year. Analysts have said the chocolate industry is in for a rough 2025 that could see shelf prices increase by a percentage in the teens.
Ivory Coast is the world's top cocoa producer, but a lack of rain and excessive heat since November across all its 13 growing regions have stalled development of the mid-crop harvest, which is meant to start in April.
The unfavorable conditions mean that the first beans will start to arrive in ports in June at the earliest, provided the weather improves and rains return in the coming weeks, the sources said.
"There is no sign of any production at all on almost any plantation in the country," said a pod counter who had just visited Ivory Coast farms.
His words echo those of two regulator officials, who said that after touring farms their team decided to lower the outlook for cocoa production to 300,000 metric tons from 400,000 tons.
"Like everyone else, we're seeing the same thing. The mid-crop harvest will be one of the worst in 15 years," one of the officials said.
He added that the regulator had sold only about 250,000 tons in export contracts to grinders, preferring to be cautious.
The regulator sources said the entire mid-crop harvest would be sold to local grinders to guarantee them the volumes necessary to maintain their activity.
A dozen planters and middlemen across the West African country described the situation as unprecedented, characterized by a total absence of flowers and small pods after those that appeared in December and January dried up in the high heat.
"Even if the rain comes today ... it's already too late," said Paul Kouame Kouakou, who owns four hectares of cocoa in Duekoue, a town in west Ivory Coast.
It usually takes a flower around 22 weeks to become a mature pod. While the harvest was expected to start in April, there will be no cocoa until at least June, the farmer said.
"Usually, it's around November and December that we get the rains that herald the mid-crop harvest, but this year there's been no rain so far, and February and March are the hottest months," said another pod counter.
He visited dozens of plantations that did not have any sign of flowers or pods, which he called "very bad news" for the crop.
