As the first Egypt International Air Show wrapped up Thursday, industry analysts debated the significance of China’s presence, which included the most complete demonstration of its advanced Y-20 transport aircraft and the first showcase of its J-10 fighter jets in Africa.
Analysts say the high-profile presence of the Chinese air force at the event held at Egypt’s El Alamein International Airport underscores China's growing technological prowess, military ambitions, and expanding influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
But analysts also question how much demand the region will have for the Chinese military planes.
“China is expanding and targeting the [Middle East] regional market,” Kostas Tigkos, manager of mission systems and intelligence at global military intelligence company Janes, told VOA. “This marks another milestone in China’s military diversification and opens doors to more collaboration in security domains, encourages investment opportunities and opens new channels to developing trade beyond traditional ties.”
Tigkos said the Middle East’s ranking as the region with China’s highest bilateral trade growth rate, and source of half of its imported oil, gives it a strategic interest in fostering economic, security, supply route and energy source development.
Interest in Chinese equipment
Countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly turning to China for military equipment, such as drones, missiles and anti-drone systems. Egypt has expressed interest in acquiring the J-10 fighter jet to diversify its military suppliers and enhance its capabilities.
In July, Egypt’s air force commander, Lieutenant General Mahmoud Foaad Abdel Jawad, traveled to Beijing at China’s behest for a meeting with China’s air force commander, Star General Chang Dingqiu.
According to an Egyptian military statement, the visit was characterized by Egypt’s “keenness to enhance areas of military cooperation with brotherly and friendly countries.” The statement added that the talks “opened new prospects between the air forces of both countries.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi attended the opening ceremony for this week’s air show and visited the Chinese pavilion.
Images of the Chinese-manufactured Y-20 transporter trailed by six J-10 jets flying over Egypt’s Giza pyramids in formation last week drew global attention, demonstrating distance and performance capabilities in the 10,000-kilometer flight from China to Egypt.
The Y-20 appearance at the airshow is significant, Wendell Minnick, editor of the "China in Arms" Substack newsletter, told VOA.
“This is their attempt to match the U.S. heavy lift, long-range transport or aerial-refueled aircraft,” Minnick said.
Capabilities
China says the Y-20 can lift up to 66 tons and carry several tanks over a distance of 7,800 kilometers. Nicknamed “Chubby Girl” by China’s aviation industry for its broad fuselage girth, the Y-20 has been in development for 17 years.
Dubbed “Vigorous Dragon,” China’s Chengdu J-10C is a combat aircraft armed with air-to-air and surface attack weapons. Primarily an air-to-air combat aircraft that can perform strike missions, the J-10C has been compared to and contrasted with the U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon.
“China needs these to project force beyond the mainland for expeditionary warfare,” Minnick said, “like the U.S. with the C-5 Galaxy and the C-17 Globemaster.”
The C-5M Super Galaxy is the U.S. Air Force’s largest aircraft, strategically designed to transport cargo and personnel. With a cargo load of more than 127 tons, nearly double China’s Y-20, it can carry oversized cargo over oceans and take off and land on relatively short runways.
The C-17 Globemaster III is “the most flexible cargo aircraft to enter the airlift force,” according to a U.S. Air Force press release, with a maximum payload of 74 tons.
Nonetheless, China’s state media touted the Y-20’s performance debut and quoted the People’s Liberation Army Air Force saying it carried out six maneuvers on Tuesday, “including large angle ascension and dive, large slope turning and fast landing, showing the aircraft's outstanding maneuverability.”
China’s Y-20 and J-10 appeared at last November’s Dubai Air Show, and the Y-20 took part in a joint drill in Russia in July and joint drills with Mozambique and Tanzania in August. But this was the first time the Y-20 had performed aerial maneuvers in a show outside China, and the first time the J-10 had performed in Africa.
“China wants to have an Africa footprint as part of their expansionist plans,” Minnick said.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in March reported, “China, which accounted for 19% of deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa, overtook Russia as the region’s main supplier of major arms.”
US suppliers
Despite China’s military sales in the region, Middle East buyers won’t be cutting ties with U.S. suppliers in favor of China in the near future, according to defense experts, who note that while the Y-20 is cheaper than the U.S. C-17 or C-5, it is less impressive and more vulnerable to missile attacks.
Minnick questions whether there will be any demand from customers in Africa and the Middle East for China’s military aircraft.
The Chinese transporter requires “tremendous training, technical support and additional off-the-shelf parts and components that most Mideast countries can’t handle” on both technical and financial fronts, he said.
“Iran is too poor,” Minnick said. “Saudi prefers Western aircraft, and Jordan is far more focused on internal security.”
Other defense experts like Tigkos say the Y-20 and J-10 present opportunities for long-term business and relationships with training programs, spare parts and maintenance – if they can find buyers.
“When a country is successful in the aviation realm, it marks a significant difference and ‘upgrade,’ if you will, toward helping foster relationships of trust and wider markets for China," he said.
The first Egypt International Air Show was held Tuesday through Thursday with about 50 aircraft on display and with representatives from 100 countries and 300 companies in attendance, including U.S. industry giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
