China recently warned against what it described as "external interference" in Myanmar, a country increasingly caught in the crossfire of escalating geopolitical rivalry between Beijing and Washington.
This warning came as the United States has been deepening its engagement with Myanmar's pro-democracy forces, raising concerns in Beijing, where experts suggest there is deep skepticism about Washington's intentions in Myanmar.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed these concerns during an informal meeting with the foreign ministers of Laos, Thailand and Myanmar on August 16 in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Wang emphasized that Myanmar's internal affairs should remain free from external interference, particularly from outside the region.
The Chinese Embassy in Myanmar and state-controlled media quickly echoed this stance, stressing that no party should cross the line of "external intervention."
This meeting coincided with a virtual discussion between U.S. officials and Myanmar's opposition, during which Washington reiterated its support for a transition to civilian government.
Although Wang did not directly mention the United States, his remarks were widely interpreted as a response to Washington's increased involvement.
Chinese distrust
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, noted China’s growing distrust of U.S. intentions in Myanmar.
"From a Chinese perspective, they reject the U.S. role in Myanmar," Abuza told VOA. "The problem is the Chinese don't want to deal with us in Myanmar.”
Hla Kyaw Zaw, a veteran observer of Sino-Myanmar relations based in China, echoed this sentiment, noting that China is more concerned about U.S. involvement than any other external influence.
"China prefers to take the lead in addressing the Myanmar crisis, as seen in its mediation efforts earlier this year," Hla Kyaw Zaw said, referring to China's role in talks between Myanmar's military junta and ethnic armed groups.
In response to a VOA request for comment, the Chinese Embassy in Washington reiterated China's stance opposing actions that provoke internal unrest and civil war in Myanmar. "China opposes deliberate interference in Myanmar's internal affairs by external forces," the embassy said in an email.
According to Abuza, there is little potential for U.S.-China cooperation on the Myanmar crisis, despite the two having similar goals.
"We actually both want much of the same thing — an end to military rule, an end to civil war, and a return to a stable, prosperous Myanmar. But I see very little cooperation going forward in the short term," Abuza said.
China-US differences
The divergence underscores broader tensions in Southeast Asia. While both powers ostensibly seek stability in Myanmar, their approaches differ sharply, according to a recent analysis by the United States Institute of Peace.
The United States has shown support for the democratic movements in Myanmar, for example, by imposing sanctions on the country's military government. Also, following the 2021 coup, Washington passed the BURMA Act of 2022, authorizing nonlethal aid to pro-democracy resistance groups and sanctioning the junta.
The U.S. also allowed Myanmar's opposition, the National Unity Government, or NUG, to open a liaison office in Washington, although the NUG has not been formally recognized as Myanmar's legitimate government by the U.S.
According to an August 16 U.S. State Department release, Counselor Tom Sullivan and Michael Schiffer, U.S. Agency for International Development assistant administrator, praised the efforts of pro-democracy groups in Myanmar to establish an inclusive federal democratic system and reaffirmed U.S. commitment to supporting these groups.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and China's Wang addressed the issue during talks in China on August 27-28, according to a White House statement. The statement did not provide details.
China's strategic interests in Myanmar are driven by its substantial economic investments and the country's strategic location as a gateway to the Indian Ocean.
"Since China is a neighboring country, it has a greater stake in Myanmar. It's widely understood that Myanmar is vital to China's plans to gain access to the Indian Ocean," said Hla Kyaw Zaw, emphasizing Myanmar's critical role in geopolitics, particularly in relation to China's Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI.
"Myanmar's involvement in the BRI has not gone as smoothly as China had hoped," Hla Kyaw Zaw said. "That's why China wants to complete projects in Myanmar as quickly as possible. To achieve this, I believe China will do everything in its power to stabilize Myanmar and ensure peace."
May Sabe Phyu, a prominent Myanmar human rights activist who advocates for democracy and human rights at the United Nations, highlighted China's significant power on the international stage and noted that the West has struggled to counter China's influence because of Beijing’s expanding economic power.
"Countries around the world, including Western nations, are increasingly unable to effectively push back against China's growing dominance," she said.
