China’s People’s Liberation Army launched a new round of military exercises in waters around Taiwan on Monday, as Beijing increases military pressure against the island democracy four days after its leader rejected the Chinese government’s claim over Taiwan.
The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said it’s conducting a joint military exercise titled “Joint Sword-2024B” in waters around northern, southern and eastern Taiwan, as well as the northern end of the Taiwan Strait.
The command issued a statement saying the army, navy, air force and rocket forces would conduct sea-air combat-readiness patrols and drills to simulate blockading key ports and assaulting maritime and ground targets.
The exercise “serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces. It is a legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding state sovereignty and national unity,” said Li Xi, Eastern Theater Command spokesperson.
In response, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a statement condemning the provocative drills and vowed to defend Taiwan’s democracy, freedom and sovereignty.
“The different kinds of irrational and provocative actions taken by China is the source that intensifies tension and damages peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” the Taiwanese defense ministry said in the statement released Monday morning.
In Washington late Sunday, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller released a statement that said, “The United States is seriously concerned by the People’s Liberation Army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. The PRC response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation.”
“We continue to monitor PRC activities and coordinate with allies and partners regarding our shared concerns,” the statement said.
At 6 p.m. local time, China’s Eastern Theater Command announced the conclusion of the military exercise, saying that the PLA has "fully tested the integrated joint operation capabilities of its troops” and vowed to "keep strengthening combat readiness with arduous training.”
Some military analysts say the Chinese military is aiming to simulate joint blockade warfare and joint force attacks, and enforce control over Taiwan’s offshore islands through this particular exercise.
“The Chinese military is simulating how to cut off Taiwan’s air and sea traffic to the outside world and prevent Taiwan’s naval and air forces from being mobilized through the deployment of their naval and air forces to designated areas around the island,” Chieh Chung, a research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight in Taiwan, told VOA in a written response.
In his view, Chieh said Beijing is trying to improve its capabilities to impose a total blockade around Taiwan by staging military drills in areas that directly correspond to all of Taiwan’s key ports.
The exercise comes four days after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te sent a firm message to Beijing during his National Day speech on October 10, arguing that the People’s Republic of China, China’s official name, has no right to represent Taiwan.
He reiterated the fact that “the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other” and vowed to resist annexation or encroachment” upon Taiwan’s sovereignty.
China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly vowed to reunite with the democratic island through force if necessary. Under the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, Beijing has increased its military aggression towards Taipei through the growing frequency of incursions by Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels as well as the frequency of blockade-style military exercises around the island.
The Chinese military exercise also follows repeated warnings from Taiwanese authorities that Beijing may use Lai’s National Day speech as a pretext to launch a new round of military exercises around Taiwan.
On Sunday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported that a Chinese navy group, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, sailed through waters near the Bashi Channel, which connects the South China Sea and the Pacific and separates Taiwan and the Philippines. It said the Chinese navy group is expected to head to the Western Pacific.
Since China has sailed its aircraft carrier group to the eastern side of Taiwan, some Taiwanese military analysts say the Chinese military will try to simulate area denial and counter-intervention drills.
Lin Ying-yu, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told VOA that the Chinese military may try to designate the Liaoning as a U.S. aircraft carrier and simulate how Chinese naval and air forces can carry out area denial and counter-intervention operations against a U.S. aircraft carrier that may try to intervene in the event of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
This is the second blockade-style military exercise that China has staged around Taiwan in 2024. Following Lai’s inauguration in May, China held a similar military exercise framed as “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence forces’” and “a stern warning” against provocation by external forces.
Other analysts say the Chinese government hopes to reduce Taiwanese people’s support for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing has repeatedly characterized as separatist. But the effect of its military intimidation is likely going to be limited, they added.
“A lot of the time these military drills don't lead to a decrease in support of the DDP or a change in support to the main opposition party Kuomintang, which favors more friendly ties with China,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, told VOA by phone.
In addition to the limited effect on influencing Taiwan’s domestic politics, Nachman said the new round of Chinese military exercises will likely increase the negative perception of China in other regional countries.
“The perceptions of China are already declining in South Korea and Japan so the more that Beijing takes these actions, the less it’s going to help its image as a reliable regional leader,” he added.
Despite U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning against provocation last week during the ASEAN Summit, Lin at Tamkang University said the timing of the military exercise shows that Beijing is gauging how Washington will respond to multiple crises that might be emerging in the Indo-Pacific region.
“China’s decision to hold the military exercise shows that the warning from Blinken hasn’t deterred them, and since North Korea has also increased their military threats against South Korea over the weekend, Beijing is probably testing Washington’s ability to cope with multiple crises in Asia,” he told VOA.
Since Taiwan President Lai has adopted a less provocative tone during his National Day speech compared to his inauguration speech in May, Nachman said the Taiwanese government should try to focus its response to the latest Chinese aggression.
“The military drills are definitely overly provocative from the Chinese side, but perhaps there was something to the words that Lai used during his speech because the Chinese response could be much worse than what we are seeing now,” he told VOA.
