China has increased high-level diplomatic engagement with Myanmar’s military government over the past week as rebel groups continue to make gains in the northern part of the country, where Beijing has huge economic and geostrategic interests.
Some analysts say recent trips by top Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi and China’s special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, reflect Beijing’s attempt to stabilize the situation in Myanmar.
“The Chinese are trying to use these high-level visits to entice the Myanmar military to come back to the negotiation table,” said Jason Tower, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) country director for Myanmar.
However, he thinks the Chinese government is struggling to facilitate new rounds of cease-fire talks between the military government and rebel groups, which have been gaining control over key facilities along the China-Myanmar border in recent months.
“It’s not clear how the Chinese would be able to facilitate a sustainable agreement between the rebel groups and the military government [since] both sides seem to be fundamentally at odds with each other,” Tower told VOA in a phone interview.
Following his meeting with the Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing on Wednesday, Wang said Beijing “opposes chaos and conflicts in Myanmar” and hopes the country will increase efforts to stabilize the situation along the China-Myanmar border.
“Wang Yi expressed his hope that Myanmar will earnestly safeguard the safety of Chinese personnel and projects in Myanmar, maintain peace and stability along the China-Myanmar border, step up joint efforts to crack down on cross-border crimes, and create a safe environment for bilateral exchanges and cooperation,” the Chinese government said in its official readout.
For its part, Myanmar’s military government said China supports its “endeavors in implementing the five-point roadmap for ensuring peace and stability of the state and development and making preparations to hold a free and fair multiparty democratic general election.”
While Myanmar’s state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper claimed that Beijing vowed to support a promised election, which the military government has said will be held in 2025, the Chinese readout didn’t include such details.
Some analysts say this difference reflects how Myanmar’s military government and the Chinese government view the supposed “election plan.”
“For the Myanmar military and its leader Min Aung Hlaing in particular, the elections are existential, but China probably remains very skeptical about the likelihood of an election being held since the military government controls less than half of Myanmar’s territory at the moment,” Hunter Marston, an adjunct research fellow at La Trobe University in Australia, told VOA by phone.
An alliance formed by several armed resistance groups called the Three Brotherhood Alliance gained control in recent months over key facilities and infrastructure in the northern part of the country, including a regional military base in the northern Shan State and the strategic city of Lashio, which sits on a highway between China and the major city of Mandalay.
USIP’s Tower said as the Myanmar military loses more of its monopoly over the ability to provide security to Chinese state-run enterprises’ projects in northern Myanmar, Beijing may increase cooperation with rebel groups to safeguard its economic interests in the region.
“As more and more of these projects fall under the control of different resistance actors, we may see China work with these groups to try to facilitate its business operation in Myanmar,” he told VOA.
While Beijing may increase cooperation with rebel groups, Marston said, China will continue to manage its relationship with Myanmar by engaging all political players in the country.
“China is continuing its long-term strategy of hedging its bets, which means that it will engage with a number of stakeholders and try to retain influence over as many factions in Myanmar as possible,” he told VOA.
In addition to meeting leaders of Myanmar’s military government, Wang also met with the former chairman of Myanmar’s State Peace and Development Council, Than Shwe, who urged Beijing to help Myanmar “prevent external interference and maintain domestic stability.”
While some analysts say Myanmar’s military government has been stalling the cease-fire negotiations as many competing political forces refuse to negotiate with them, they think China will not support the complete ousting of the military from Burmese politics.
“Since Myanmar became independent in 1948, there has not been a single day when the Burmese military was not a part of the center of the Burmese politics,” Yun Sun, China Program director at the Stimson Center in Washington, told VOA by phone.
She said Beijing will likely support a peace process based on negotiation and reconciliation.
“The peace process has to be based on some sort of concessions made by both sides,” said Sun.
But since there is no sign that the fighting between rebel groups and Myanmar’s military will stop any time soon, Marston said Beijing can only try to urge different resistance groups to respect its interests while gradually cultivating an environment for potential cease-fire negotiations.
“Beijing will continue to incrementally work around the margins by pushing cease-fire negotiations in northern Myanmar while trying to ensure that all players are on China’s side,” he told VOA.
