There is growing consensus among analysts that the Communist Party of China’s international liaison Liu Jianchao is likely to be chosen as the country’s next foreign minister, perhaps as early as March during China’s most important annual political meetings, the Two Sessions.
If appointed, analysts say, the 59-year-old translator-turned-diplomat — and former hunter of corrupt officials — would succeed Wang Yi as China’s top diplomat and could help repair fraught relations between Beijing and Western nations, especially the United States.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the New York-based consultancy Eurasia Group, told VOA if Liu Jianchao is promoted to foreign minister in March, as we expect, the world can expect a kinder and gentler China on the global stage in 2024.
“Liu Jianchao is a friendlier figure than Wang and more fluent in English, so it will likely aid diplomatic communications with the U.S. and other Western countries," Chan said.
However, he added, “it's also worth remembering that even as the foreign minister, Liu Jianchao would not make foreign policy but rather implement directives from Wang and other senior party leaders.”
Wang Yi, 70, was re-appointed last July to serve as foreign minister until a replacement was named following the removal of Qin Gang.
Analysts VOA spoke with say Liu is clearly being groomed for the position.
In early January, he led a Chinese delegation to the United States and met with think tanks, business figures and top officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House principal deputy national security adviser Jon Finer. He also attended a public seminar on U.S.-China relations at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.
Yun Sun, director of the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center's China Program met with Liu during his visit.
"I think Liu Jianchao's trip to D.C. is good evidence that he will be tasked with the important bilateral relationship,” Sun said, adding that during his visit to three cities in the U.S., hehad multiple engagements with the think tank and policy communities. “This would be quite unusual if he is not being positioned to carry a bigger portfolio.”
Liu previously served as a foreign ministry spokesman before moving on to become ambassador to the Philippines and later in Indonesia. After that, he served as assistant foreign minister before moving on to become deputy director, a vice-minister level position, of the National Bureau of Corruption Prevention and Director-General of the Department of International Cooperation of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Liu played a key role in Chinese President Xi Jinping's "Operation Fox Hunt," which sought to track down and extradite corrupt officials who fled abroad, analysts say.
"Liu Jianchao's experience leading the international office of Xi's anti-corruption campaign suggests that he enjoys a high level of political trust and is deemed capable of handling especially sensitive negotiations with foreign governments," Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, told VOA in an emailed response.
Liu Yawei, senior adviser on China at The Carter Center and an adjunct professor of political science at Georgia’s Emory University, said it also helped him become familiar with the operation of China's domestic politics.
"This will allow him to understand the provincial-level government and the operation of the entire Chinese bureaucracy because diplomats and even the entire foreign ministry are relatively different from [China's] domestic bureaucracy,” Liu said. “It is somewhat out of touch, but China's diplomacy is also subject to domestic politics and each province's pursuit and protection of overseas interests."
In 2018, Liu Jianchao returned to the diplomatic system and worked in the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission. In 2022, he was appointed minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, whose traditional role is to liaise with other communist party-ruled countries such as Cuba, Laos, North Korea and Vietnam.
Eurasia Group’s Chan says Liu’s wide-ranging experience make him a strong candidate for foreign minister.
"His anti-corruption bona fides are admittedly unusual for a foreign minister, but his experience on the [Central Commission for Discipline Inspection] also likely makes him more trustworthy in the eyes of the leadership, which has signaled concern about the reliability of the country's broader diplomatic corps,” he said. “At his core, however, Liu is a diplomat — a deft communicator in both Chinese and English and possessing a global worldview and self-confidence in engaging with foreign counterparts."
Since returning to diplomacy, Liu has visited 18 countries, including Australia, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, and the United States, reports the South China Morning Post.
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
