China, which has long influenced Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, is pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA — part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) — to avoid aligning with other opposition forces that China perceives as Western-backed, experts say.
The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang ethnic armed group, whose members are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese native to Kokang, reposted a statement on social media confirming their alliance with China.
“Our political red line is not to form alliances or work together with those who are against China,” read the statement, which was briefly posted Sept. 4 and reposted on Sept. 19.
Analysts say that Beijing’s pressure on ethnic armed groups, especially the MNDAA, reflects its strategic interests in maintaining control over Myanmar’s political landscape. Strategically located along Myanmar’s northeastern border with China, the MNDAA is being pushed to sever ties with opposition forces that Beijing views as having U.S. support.
China used its economic and political leverage when it reportedly cut off trade and supplies to Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region, to create distance between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) — the pro-democracy shadow government leading the fight against the ruling junta.
“The MNDAA’s statement is a follow-up to China’s warning that the ‘three bottom lines’ must not be crossed,” said Than Soe Naing, a veteran political analyst based in Myanmar.
The “three bottom lines,” articulated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in August, call for Myanmar to avoid civil strife, remain part of ASEAN, and prevent external interference.
According to a political analyst based in Yangon who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, there is a perception in China that the National Unity Government and certain resistance forces, as well as some ethnic armed organizations, are close to the United States and are receiving U.S. support.
“This policy reflects China’s emphasis on preventing external forces from interfering in Burma's affairs, which Beijing views as critical to its regional strategy,” said political analyst Than Soe Naing, using an alternative name for Myanmar.
So far, Beijing has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement, despite the group’s request for China’s help to resolve the conflict and its willingness to cease fighting and cooperate with Beijing to negotiate a solution to Myanmar’s crisis. Myanmar also has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military continues airstrikes in northern Shan State. According to a Sept. 24 MNDAA social media post,a recent strike killed one civilian and injured 16 in Lashio, former headquarters of the junta’s Northeastern Command.
Beijing’s interests in Myanmar
Frequent visits by Chinese officials to Myanmar have reinforced perceptions that Beijing is siding with Myanmar’s military because it perceives the opposition groups to be in alignment with the United States, observers say.
“China sees the NUG and the People’s Defense Forces as Western-backed entities, and for China, that is a red line,” said Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Myanmar at the International Crisis Group.
According to Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based expert on China-Myanmar relations, Myanmar offers China a valuable connection to the Indian Ocean, providing an essential trade route that would allow Beijing to compete more effectively in the region with the United States.
“If Myanmar is stable, China’s southwestern land-locked provinces will have a safe and secure outlet to the sea,” Hla Kyaw Zaw explained. “Beijing wants these initiatives to move forward quickly.”
China is the largest investor in Myanmar, and the internal conflict is “not conducive to foreign investment and trade,” according to a Stimson Center report.
That said, Kean told VOA that despite MNDAA’s public stance on China, the group may still maintain limited cooperation with resistance forces to secure its territorial interests.
Nan Lwin, head of the Myanmar China studies program at the Institute for Strategy and Policy - Myanmar, said, “If China is to be credible for the Myanmar peace process, it will need to have a multi-country approach.”
Balancing act for opposition
Earlier this year, the National Unity Government, or NUG, issued its first formal policy statement on Beijing, pledging to safeguard Chinese investments and enterprise as resistance forces continue to gain ground in areas near the Chinese border.
However, the Yangon-based analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity said this policy is insufficient to win over China, which seeks complete control in the region and wants to prevent any outside influence, particularly from the United States, near its strategic access point to the Indian Ocean.
“The more the conflict escalates on its border, the greater the risk of disagreements between China and the U.S. on Myanmar,” Kean said.
