Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s four-day visit to Russia and Belarus this week is aimed, analysts say, at deepening coordination with both countries and reaffirming ties between Beijing and Moscow as trade relations are showing signs of strain.
They say Beijing hopes to use Li’s trip to reassure Moscow that the bilateral relationship remains positive and urge Russia to prevent further escalation in the war against Ukraine, even as both announced gains on the battlefield in recent days.
“China wants to reassure Russia that issues in the bilateral economic and trade relationship are merely logistical issues while conveying the message that Bejing doesn’t want to see an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict,” Philipp Ivanov, a nonresident Asia Society Policy Institute senior fellow, told VOA in a video interview.
Li arrived in Moscow on Tuesday and wraps up his trip Friday, following a stop in Belarus.
During his meeting with Li Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the growing trade relations between China and Russia, and said bilateral efforts have “yielded positive results.”
“Our countries have developed large-scale joint plans and projects in the economic and humanitarian spheres, which are set to continue for many years,” Putin said, adding that bilateral trade relations are not only developing “but also flourishing.”
In response, Li said China is ready to empower bilateral cooperation through scientific and industrial innovation while urging both sides to deepen cultural, tourism, and education exchanges.
In addition to meeting Putin, Li also met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and both sides agreed to advance ties in areas such as economy and trade while exploring cooperation in emerging sectors including digital economy and green development.
Despite the optimism expressed by top officials from both sides, bilateral trade relations between China and Russia have been complicated in recent months, as many Chinese banks reportedly rejected direct Chinese yuan payments from Russian entities and raised the yuan-ruble exchange rate.
Meanwhile, media reports suggest Chinese exports to Russia have had to go through third countries, such as Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, to avoid international sanctions imposed on Russia. This has caused a significant drop in Chinese exports to Russia since the start of this year.
Ivanov said these trade complications have caused serious issues for Russia as Moscow has become “almost exclusively dependent” on Chinese imports, such as automotive and manufacturing equipment, to sustain its economy and war efforts since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“I expect economic problems in bilateral relationships to dominate the discussion [between Li and Russian officials] and while there may be some progress, I don’t expect them to be substantial since some of the issues are not easy to solve,” he told VOA.
Political and strategic ties
Li’s visit also comes amid efforts to strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries. While Russia continues to fight Ukrainian troops on the battlefield, China and Russia have recently conducted joint patrols in areas near Alaska and Japan and held a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea.
During Putin’s visit to China in May, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin issued a statement that they had agreed to deepen the “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination” between both countries.
“Putin and Xi’s statements in May indicate that there will be more security and military cooperation between Russia and China and Li’s trip is part of the efforts to elevate their comprehensive strategic partnership,” Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told VOA by phone.
Despite the agreement to further deepen bilateral strategic ties, Ivanov said the trajectory of the Ukraine war and Russia’s elevated ties with North Korea remain factors that could complicate relations between China and Russia.
“Li will likely highlight the need for Russia to avoid escalation, especially when it comes to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and any attacks on nuclear power stations during his trip,” he said.
Improved relations between Moscow and Pyongyang are a concern but manageable, Ivanov added.
“China understands that the relationship between Russia and North Korea is a predominantly military-industrial relationship and since Beijing has direct channels of communication with both countries, they think the risks of that relationship are manageable,” he said.
Countering NATO
Apart from maintaining ties with Russia, some analysts say China will also seek to demonstrate its ability to push back against what it views as increased NATO pressure through Li’s visit to Belarus.
“Given the increased concern China has about NATO, I think aligning more closely with Belarus helps to demonstrate that Beijing can push back against NATO in certain ways,” Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute, told VOA by phone.
In July, Belarus became the latest member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Minsk and Beijing organized a joint antiterrorism exercise with China near the Polish and Ukrainian borders, which Wishnick said was a demonstration to NATO that Beijing “has friends” in Europe.
Despite the challenges that exist in the bilateral relationship, Ivanov said China’s and Russia’s mutual interest in strengthening their diplomatic coordination globally, such as working to expand organizations such as BRICS, and their joint efforts to address current global conflicts such as the war in Gaza, will ensure that their ties remain strong.
“The pace of diplomacy and the level of engagement demonstrate that this is a partnership that China and Russia are pursuing very seriously,” he told VOA.
