China’s drive to buttress its military modernization through increased international arms sales has slowed, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, with experts citing Chinese-made weapons systems’ lack of combat experience as one key obstacle.
The SIPRI report issued this week shows significant growth in total international arms sales driven by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Revenues earned by the world’s 100 largest defense companies grew by 4.2% to a total of $632 billion in 2023.
But the growth for Chinese companies in 2023 was only 0.7%, the smallest since 2019.
The United States was the world's largest arms exporter last year with 41 American companies in the top 100, earning $317 billion in arms revenue. Only nine of the top 100 enterprises were from China, with total arms revenue amounting to $103 billion, according to the survey.
The slowdown comes despite China’s efforts to find overseas markets for its weapons to support its geopolitical objectives.
Over the past year, Chinese defense contractors participated in a number of defense exhibitions overseas. More than 60 defense firms participated in the Eurosatory — one of Europe’s biggest defense expos — in France in July. Chinese defense companies also participated in events in Vietnam, Singapore, Qatar and together with Russia at an arms fair in Pakistan.
Analysts say Beijing still faces a range of obstacles as it seeks to grow its reputation as a major arms seller. They say Beijing’s close ties to Moscow and the fact that many of its systems — while advanced — have not been battle-tested, are some of the reasons China’s weapons sales appear to be lagging behind other countries.
Technology transfer
For many countries allied with the West, China's perceived support for Russia and its war in Ukraine are a key deterrent to purchasing Chinese arms.
Fenix Chiang, a senior military reporter for Taiwan's China Times newspaper, says that nations such as Poland, which see Russia as a primary threat, are unlikely to buy Chinese or Russian-aligned weaponry, opting instead for more reasonably priced South Korean alternatives.
"Poland would never choose military weapons from China or those aligned with Russia, as they would offer little security,” Chiang said.
Wendell Minnick, a former journalist for the Defense News website, said China's lack of after-sales support and unwillingness to share critical technologies with buyers weakens its position in the global arms market.
“They will sell you a fighter jet, but they don’t provide very in-depth training opportunity for the country they sell them to,” Minnick told VOA's Mandarin Service in a webcam video interview. “That’s a huge problem.”
Minnick said that by contrast, Washington supplies training for Taiwan’s F-16 pilots in the United States.
“They are getting face-to-face, boot on the ground experience with real U.S. fighter pilots and training. China doesn’t really provide much in the way of training,” Minnick said.
Lack of maintenance and spare parts support is another problem for China in promoting its weapons to the international market, he added.
“You just don’t deliver an advanced weapon system and then say thank you, so long, goodbye, good luck. You have to supply them with continued maintenance and upgrade and spare parts,” Minnick said. “You also have to provide manuals that are in the local languages, not in Chinese.”
Not battle-tested
Analysts say the biggest challenge Chinese weapons face abroad is their lack of real combat experience.
“Nobody likes to buy an advanced weapon system that has not seen combat,” said Minnick, “So that’s a huge problem for China until their systems begin to actually be deployed to combat with a proven combat record.”
Erich Shih, a Taiwanese military expert, also believes that a lack of combat experience is a weakness of Chinese weapons.
"When it comes to the export of mainland China's fighter jets, if there's one thing they lack, it's real combat experience,” Shih said. “In other words, from the perspective of buyers, the question is whether these weapons are truly reliable."
The use of Western technology in Chinese weapons has become another obstacle for China in selling arms overseas.
Chang Ching, a senior researcher at the Taipei-based think tank Society for Strategic Studies, notes that there have long been rumors that China is interested in selling its J-10 fighter jet to Argentina, and that Argentina is interested as well.
“However, the ejection seats used in the jets are produced by Martin-Baker, and the U.K. does not approve the export of Martin-Baker’s zero-zero ejection seats to Argentina,” Chang said. “Unless China can replace them with domestically developed ejection seats, any equipment with components from other countries will face restrictions and limitations when sold abroad."
Dual-use advantage
On the positive side for Chinese arms companies, Chinese military drones perform well in the global market due to fewer export restrictions compared to U.S. and European counterparts, according to a report from the Mercator Institute for China Studies, or MERICS,
Fenix Chiang says drones from Da-Jiang Innovations, a Chinese technology company, can be easily adapted for military use after being exported to Ukraine.
China has reportedly exported dual-use technologies to both sides of the conflict in Ukraine.
Highlighting one example, Chiang pointed to China’s sale to Russia last year of 10,000 “DesertCross 1000-3" off-road vehicles that were made for civilian use but can be useful on the battlefield.
In another example, China retired its Type 056 missile frigate and transferred the vessel to the Chinese Coast Guard.
“Several of these vessels have been sold to other countries,” Chang said.
