During a two-day summit this week in its Silk Road city of Xian, China promised more investment, enhanced security and development assistance to Central Asian states Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which thanked Beijing for building infrastructure networks in the region, boosting trade and understanding their challenges.
"The world needs a stable, prosperous, harmonious and inter-connected Central Asia," Chinese President Xi Jinping said. “China is ready to help Central Asian countries strengthen law enforcement, defense … and jointly promote peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan.”
Addressing a group of leaders increasingly dependent on Beijing, Xi urged them to resist "external attempts to interfere in domestic affairs … or instigate color revolutions” and admonished “zero tolerance” for terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Xi also pledged nearly $4 billion in financing and grants for Central Asia, whose regional trade with China reached $70 billion in 2022 — $31 billion of which transacted between China and oil-rich Kazakhstan alone.
Xi also pledged to accelerate the construction of Line D of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan running through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The summit also announced progress toward a China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, which is still only on paper.
“We have already been moving to the practical stage with our Chinese and Kyrgyz partners,” said Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Echoing other Central Asian presidents participating, Mirziyoyev underscored mutual trust, respect and interests.
“Today, Central Asia is different — it is united and strong, open to dialogue and full-scale partnership,” he said.
Like Washington, Beijing expresses steadfast support for these countries’ sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Without mentioning Russian aggression and its war in Ukraine and a direct reference to America’s role and ideals, Xi promoted his country as a more reliable and generous partner for Central Asia.
U.S. stance on authoritarian regimes
George Krol, a former U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, said the U.S. does not want to see the region “moving more into the arms” of China and its northern neighbor, Russia.
In his analysis, this is one of the reasons why Washington is not as critical of authoritarian rulers in Central Asia, despite the Biden administration’s assurances to advance democratic rule and counter such regimes.
“It's in a way part of the pattern of engagement with Central Asia, which is not on its own merits so much as how it is perceived through the prism of other policies,” such as toward Beijing, Moscow and next-door Afghanistan.
Krol agrees with other analysts who say it reflects a “realpolitik” approach that acknowledges “one does not want to make an enemy out of these governments when you need them.”
With 36 years as a diplomat, mainly focusing on authoritarian former Soviet states, Krol said “the U.S. is incapable of changing these political cultures.”
“America has no secret formula, as we can see in our politics,” he said. “Change, disruptive politically and socially, should come from within, not outside.”
Krol said the Central Asian public is more concerned with stability. Presidents of the two key countries, Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev and Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, have been pushing reform agendas endorsed by Washington.
“They ultimately want to be viewed as popular and legitimate in the eyes of the majority,” he said.
Mirziyoyev and Tokayev have raised expectations by admitting systemic issues and guaranteeing the rule of law. Tightly controlling the media, both are often criticized for overpromising and underdelivering.
Krol points to the “difficult neighborhood” in which they lack “the luxury of experimenting.”
“But the biggest enemy of Mirziyoyev and Tokayev can be their own bureaucracy and justice system failing to respond to their population.”
What will happen in the ensuing years is critical, Krol emphasized.
“Will they manage to continue to have the support of more people, or will their reform agenda be seen more and more as window dressing?” he said.
How do Central Asians view China?
Several people living and working in Central Asian nations spoke to VOA about their impressions of Chinese investment and whether they detect a contest for influence in the region.
Saida Sayip from Kyrgyzstan told VOA that commerce with China is crucial.
“I hope the railway linking us with Uzbekistan and China becomes a reality,” she said.
Turkish-trained Sayip said she sees little Chinese influence in education and health care, sectors mostly relying on foreign support.
Like many in the region, Sayip worries about water and energy security.
“Our resources must be preserved for our consumption. And we need a proper infrastructure to export them if we have extra,” she said.
For Muhabbat Mamirova from Uzbekistan, “China is not hot or a polarized topic like the U.S. and Russia.”
“We are aware of Beijing’s economic power, but there is not much fascination with this nation.” Mamirova, engaged in gender empowerment and social development projects, does not yet detect the cultural effect of China.
“When I talk with Chinese-educated people, I don’t sense the kind of an attachment the American-educated have towards the country of study. Young people focus more on American ideals. We aren’t curious about China as much as we are about the West,” she said.
“Perhaps we don’t care because the Chinese system is like ours?” Mamirova added. “We view the relationship with China as mostly political.”
Biologist Bakhtiyor Sheraliev, who earned his Ph.D. in China, described its posture in Central Asia as subtle.
“It does not seem aggressive or superior like Russia, but remember, we owe much of our external debt to Beijing,” he said. “I spent more than six years in China. I know how powerful it is. I would argue that most people here see some threat in China. Rather vague fear, but we feel it.”
Sheraliev said he thinks Central Asia states need a long-term strategy toward Beijing.
“China is a vast market, but as hard as it is, we must strive to be equal partners,” he said. “Our region doesn’t need yet another ‘big brother’ like Russia.”
