President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to introduce 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada is getting reaction, not surprisingly, in both countries.
The threat of tariffs on everything coming across the world’s largest undefended border from Canada to the United States got attention but has not been met with overwhelming surprise.
University of British Columbia political scientist Stewart Prest said it is a return to Trump World, where the world is responding to his social media posts. He said Canadian authorities should know from the previous Trump administration to take the threat seriously but not literally.
“But the other piece of it is then to find ways to respond to, address what Mr. Trump is saying, but to do so without simply giving in and waving the white flag,” Prest said. “That the need to push back in creative ways is, I think, an important lesson, as well.”
Trump says he will impose this tariff if Canada and Mexico do not get control of illegal migrants and fentanyl distribution.
According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, just under 20 kilograms of fentanyl was seized along the Canada-U.S. border in the last fiscal year. During the same time, 9,500 kilograms were seized along the U.S.-Mexican border.
Canada is the largest trading partner of the United States, with goods valued at an average $2.7 billion crossing the almost 9,000-kilometer-long border every day in 2023.
Canada is the United States of America’s largest source of foreign oil. Prest said the proposed tariffs on that would increase costs on everything, and this needs to be effectively communicated.
“[Make] it clear that there are interests that unite the two countries and that they're far greater than whatever divides us,” Prest said. “Those messages need to be put forward in a variety of formats.”
Andreas Schotter, a professor of global strategy at the Ivey Business School at Western University in Ontario, said the proposed tariffs will hurt both countries. But, he added, they can be avoided if Canada makes serious commitments with tangible results.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is suggesting it could deploy more law enforcement resources to the border, including personnel, helicopters and unmanned drones.
Schotter’s concern is that the most recent demand from Trump may go beyond fentanyl and migration and lead to the cancellation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.
“I think he will not wait for 2026 to reopen USMCA,” Schotter said. “I think he will say, ‘Well, you can talk to me now, or I will not talk to you in 2026, and I just cancel it, right?’ So I think he will not respect even the agreed upon timelines, necessarily. And this is worrying me.”
This past weekend, Trudeau, his chief of staff Katie Telford and Minster of Public Safety Dominic LeBlanc flew from Ottawa to Trump’s home in Florida for direct talks.
LeBlanc has told multiple media outlets the dinner meeting went well, with Trump emphasizing the prevalence of fentanyl as a main concern. Also discussed was the large trade deficit between United States and Canada. According to the U.S. Trade Representative, this amounted to $53.5 billion in 2022.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce predicts that if the threatened tariffs are put in place, they would shrink Canada’s Gross Domestic Product by 2.6%, and the GDP of the United States by 1.6%.
