Political analysts say with both Turkey’s ruling and opposition parties pledging to improve ties with the United States ahead of next month’s national elections, there are hopeful signs for the bilateral relationship following years of tension.
Relations between Washington and Ankara went into a downward spiral following a coup attempt in Turkey seven years ago. Ties worsened after NATO ally Turkey decided to purchase an S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia in 2019, triggering sanctions and its removal from the U.S.’s F-35 fighter jet program.
Ankara was also upset by the partnership between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, including the YPG fighting Islamic State rebels in Syria. Turkey views the YPG as an arm of the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK, which is considered a terrorist group by both Ankara and Washington.
Turkey’s significance as a NATO ally has been boosted by the role it played following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Turkey’s lingering ties with Moscow continue to concern the United States.
Turkey’s return to F-35 program?
In a manifesto announced ahead of the May 14 elections, Turkey’s ruling AK Party pledged to strengthen a strategic mechanism with the United States and ensure “concrete steps in line with security priorities are taken with regard to YPG, FETO and sanctions.” FETO is an acronym for the movement loyal to Fethullah Gulen, labeled by the Turkish government as “Fethullah Terrorist Organization” in the aftermath of the 2016 coup plot. Gulen, living in self-imposed exile in the United States, has denied allegations he was behind the coup attempt.
Turkey’s opposition bloc formed by six political parties has been more explicit about improving ties with Washington, promising that it will “advance the alliance relationship with the United States based on mutual trust” if it wins the election.
The lengthy declaration dubbed as a “Memorandum of Understanding on Common Policies” and published in January both in Turkish and English, promises to “take initiatives for Turkey to return” to the F-35 program.
Analysts speaking to VOA say that, no matter who wins the election, Turkey will have to deal with the presence of Russia’s S-400 system on its soil before it can return to the F-35 program.
The United States views the Russian system as a threat to the next-generation fighter jet as well as NATO aircraft operating over Turkey.
“The big problem is the presence of the S-400. If that can be dealt with, either doing away with it or securing it so it does not pick up signals from the F-35, then something can be worked out,” says Jim Townsend, a senior follow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.
While the opposition does not make any explicit reference to the S-400s, the intent to return Turkey to the F-35 program in “coded language” indicates a will to resolve the S-400 issue, one expert argues.
“Everyone knows the return to the F-35 program cannot happen unless the S-400 issue is resolved,” Alan Makovksy, from the Center for American Progress, told VOA, via Skype.
Uncertain future of the bigger F-16 deal
Earlier in April, the Biden administration notified Congress of a planned sale of software upgrades to Turkey for its current F-16 fleet. The deal valued at more than $250 million needs to be cleared through the formal approval process.
The notification of the proposed deal came two weeks after the Turkish parliament approved Finland’s accession to NATO after holding it off for several months.
A bigger defense package for new jets and modernization kits requested by Ankara, however, faces an uncertain future due to continuing opposition in the U.S. Congress.
Experts believe Congress expects more assurances from Turkey. Among them are continuing on the de-escalation path with NATO ally Greece to ease tensions and taking meaningful actions to improve human rights.
Ankara and Athens, locked in a deep-rooted feud in the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean, have softened their tone following the devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey in February.
“If there's calm in the Aegean for several months and human rights changes after the elections, it would be a good start. That would be very significant for Congress,” said analyst Makovksy.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Economic and Foreign Policy Research Center, voiced agreement.
“If there is going to be a new era in Turkey where the government takes meaningful steps in terms of democratic standards and shows the will to build its relations with the West on more solid ground, I think that will positively affect the views in Congress,” he said in an interview with VOA.
Turkey, along with Hungary, has yet to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession. U.S. officials are urging Ankara to take action ahead of a NATO summit in July.
Regardless of the outcome, analysts expect a positive step from Turkey on this following the elections, adding the opposition might have more flexibility if it wins.
Upholding democratic values
Officials in the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden have underscored democracy as an important component of its foreign policy vision. Turkey was not invited to the Summit for Democracy two years in a row.
“I think in terms of whoever wins this election, the party that has a stronger stand on supporting those values and principles will be a government that will be easier for us to work with,” said Jim Townsend.
Sinan Ulgen argues that while the United States can work with democratic and undemocratic countries to advance its national interests, those relationships often differ in scope and depth.
“Your position in the international system matters. A Turkey that positions itself among democratic nations would be advantageous not only in foreign policy but also in economy, foreign investment and technology,” he said.
