A year after succeeding his father as Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Manet is facing widespread public anger over a regional economic cooperation plan with Vietnam and Laos that is testing his political acumen.
Thousands of Cambodians living in Japan, South Korea and Australia have staged protests against the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) initiative, citing fears of ceding sovereignty or inviting large-scale immigration from Vietnam.
Although the initiative has been in place for decades, regional meetings this year for a 2030 “master plan” have put it back in the spotlight. An 11-minute video posted on Facebook by government critics last month fanned historic resentment toward Vietnam and its perceived control over the current government, which Hanoi installed and backed throughout the 1980s.
While political analysts say fears of the CLV-DTA may be overblown and fueled by online misinformation, they also blame the government for failing to provide transparent explanations about the initiative, instead seeking to suppress dissent, which has only fueled suspicions of ill intentions.
Sophal Ear, an associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, told VOA Khmer in an email that the underlying concerns about Cambodia's sovereignty is a significant test for Hun Manet.
“It challenges his ability to navigate complex regional projects while addressing domestic concerns about national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Successfully managing this controversy will be crucial in establishing his credibility as a leader who can protect Cambodia's interests while engaging in regional cooperation,” he said.
“How he handles this situation could set the tone for his leadership and influence public perception of his capacity to govern effectively,” he added.
Hun Manet took office on August 22, 2023, shortly after an election the United States deemed neither free nor fair. His father, Hun Sen, was the party’s prime minister candidate and arranged for his son to take power ahead of the formation of a new government.
While the generational transfer of power allowed some Western countries to reset relations with Cambodia, there has been little change in the government’s reliance on China or its approach to critics and perceived opponents. Dozens of activists and political opponents have been arrested under Hun Manet.
Last month, authorities arrested more than 30 people across the country amid reports of a planned mass demonstration against the CLV initiative in Phnom Penh on August 18.
The creators of the Facebook video were also arrested after it drew the ire of government leaders. Hun Sen, who is now president of the Senate, has threatened additional arrests should public criticism continue.
Sophal Ear said the proactive arrests, along with the deployment of a heavy security presence across major cities, showed the government’s determination to quell any significant uprising before it gains momentum.
“However, the situation remains fluid, and the government’s approach could either suppress the movement or further galvanize public opposition, depending on how it handles the protesters and addresses the underlying concerns,” he told VOA Khmer on August 26.
In a public address on August 22 marking one year in power, Hun Manet addressed criticism and concerns about the development triangle area, saying it was meant to “create potential and development” in the four Cambodian provinces involved.
He said the initiative would spur infrastructure construction in border regions, encourage more productive land use, and protect forests for joint development. In his speech, Hun Manet highlighted that the initiative would strengthen sovereignty of Cambodia while “boosting the development and maintaining stability and security” for its people.
The attention of the CLV initiative also comes as Cambodia is pushing ahead with the controversial 180-kilometer Funan Techo Canal project that will rely significantly on Chinese funding, which carries its own regional implications as it would bypass traditional trade routes through the Mekong delta in Vietnam.
The CLV furor has been a distraction from the Funan Techo project, which officially broke ground last month. Political professor Em Sovannara, who is based in Cambodia, said Hun Manet seems unable to deal with the issue.
“First, I think building the canal is part of creating political value for the new prime minister. Second, on the issue of the CLV project left from the past, the current prime minister has no ability to respond or deal with it based on our observation,” he said.
Soeng Senkaruna, a former senior official at the human rights group ADHOC who fled to live in Australia, told VOA Khmer that he expected Hun Manet to continue trying to address the criticism by silencing it or creating distractions.
“So, they will not solve the problems according to what the people are demanding, so they will keep defending this project," he said. “We are aware that this project is a long-term strategy between Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. That’s why the child prime minister and his father, the former prime minister, as we saw, we know that they can’t do anything with Vietnam. Thus, he has no capacity to deal with this issue. The new prime minister will do nothing.”
Cambodia is expected to host a ministerial summit later this year for the review and adoption of the Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development in the CLV-DTA up to 2030.
Cambodia’s exiled opposition leaders have seized on fears about the initiative, which could negatively impact four Cambodian border provinces — Ratanakiri, Mondulkiri, Kratie and Stung Treng — as well as provinces in Laos in Vietnam.
The plan encourages freer flow of goods and people across the borders but entering a joint development with its larger and much more populous eastern neighbor also rekindles many Cambodians’ traditional fear of Vietnamese expansion and domination.
“The project is in fact a cover for further illegal deforestation, land evictions and exploitation of natural resources for foreign gain,” the Khmer Movement for Democracy wrote August 14 on X.
“Continued illegal Vietnamese immigration into the four Cambodian provinces concerned by the agreement, and the effective control that Vietnam will wield over the economy of the region, means that the provinces will effectively become vassals controlled by Vietnam,” it added.
Cambodia’s government spokesman Pen Bona said Hun Manet was ensuring peace, security and national sovereignty, and denied restricting freedom of expression or dissent.
“Lately, we have seen the people using opposition culture to cause destruction by a handful of people. So, the government must take very strict measures by not absolutely allowing such a group to use its own trick to spoil peace or harmony or national development,” he told VOA.
He added, “I would like to clarify: Don’t consider the government measures as a restriction of freedom of expression [or] democratic freedom.”
