In what will likely be his farewell appearance on the world stage, President Joe Biden faces a daunting question: what to tell world leaders wondering about potential changes in U.S. policies when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his America First agenda.
Biden is set to depart for Peru and Brazil Thursday for two major economic summits.
Biden is scheduled to spend Friday and Saturday in Lima with leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, made up of 21 member economies that promote free trade in the region.
He will be in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday to meet with leaders of the world's 20 largest economies at the Group of 20 summit.
On the way to Rio from Lima, Biden will make a brief stop at Manaus for a climate-focused engagement in Brazil's state of Amazonas.
In his meetings, Biden must face allies and partners who four years ago may have been skeptical about his "America is back" message and the durability of U.S. global commitments. These leaders saw Trump, during his first term, act to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord and threaten to pull out of NATO.
Uncertainties about future U.S. policy will complicate efforts to reach an agenda on issues of global concern such as trade, poverty and debt alleviation, climate change, sustainable development, and green energy.
"There will be a lot of combination of lamenting, speculation, guessing about what we'll see coming first in terms of policies out of the campaign and how countries are best able to position themselves," said Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
'America's allies are vital'
To these leaders, Biden's message is that "America's allies are vital to America's national security," said national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who previewed the trip to reporters on Wednesday.
"They make us stronger. They multiply our capability. They take a burden off of our shoulders. They contribute to our common causes," Sullivan said. He underscored that Biden would be attending the APEC summit when U.S. alliances in the region were at an "all-time high," with bolstered ties with Japan, Korea, Australia and the Philippines.
Biden will hold a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of APEC with President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan to "discuss the importance of institutionalizing" the progress made so that it carries forward through the transition to the new administration, Sullivan said.
Whatever the questions surrounding the next administration, Biden will emphasize his faith in the "ideals of American engagement around the world," said Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center.
"He believes it is in the best interest of both America and the world for it to continue," Lipsky said. "And not one election or one president can undercut that, from his perspective."
Biden's agenda
In Rio de Janeiro, Biden will "demonstrate the strong value proposition of the United States to developing countries and lead the G20 to work together to address shared global challenges," the White House said.
He is expected to hold bilateral meetings with summit hosts Peruvian President Dina Boluarte and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
In Lima, he is set to support Peru's initiative to expand APEC's economic inclusion efforts to empower workers in the informal economy, said Matt Murray, U.S. senior official for APEC.
In Rio, he will focus on workers' rights and clean economic growth and attend the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Lula's initiative aimed at accelerating global efforts to reduce hunger and poverty by 2030.
In Manaus, Biden will make history as the first sitting U.S. president to visit the Brazilian Amazon. There, he will deliver remarks on climate conservation and engage Indigenous leaders working to preserve the rainforest.
Symbolic and short-lived
Many of Biden's efforts will be mostly symbolic and short-lived, as the incoming U.S. administration could bring dramatically different priorities on global welfare programs and climate change.
Analysts say that while the world has watched U.S. leadership swing from Republican to Democratic and back again in recent years, Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to project an image of stability as he exerts his vision of China's increased role on the global stage.
In Peru, Xi will inaugurate a $1.3 billion megaport, part of China's infrastructure investment program that has bought him influence in various parts of the world.
Beijing has increased diplomatic engagement in the region, with Xi visiting 11 Latin American countries since becoming president, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. Summit hosts Peru and Brazil are set to honor him with state visits this month.
A meeting between Biden and Xi, likely their last during Biden's term, is scheduled in Lima for Saturday. The meeting comes as Trump appoints ardent China critics in key foreign policy positions, moves that could lead to a more confrontational U.S. posture toward Beijing.
Whatever the next administration decides, it's going to need to find ways to manage the "tough, complicated relationship" between the U.S. and China, a senior official said when asked what Biden might tell Xi to expect from the incoming administration.
Nike Ching contributed to this report.
