Next week, China will mark the 12th anniversary of a group for central and eastern European countries it established to grow its influence in the EU. But when it does, there will be no high-level activities or celebrations to mark the group’s creation.
Since 2019, the frequency of meetings between China and central and eastern European leaders has decreased, and one after another, members have withdrawn.
Matej Simalcik, executive director at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, told VOA Mandarin that when the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Cooperation Mechanism was launched on April 26, 2012, central and eastern European, or CEE states “were largely motivated as a reaction to the global financial crisis. Cooperation with China was seen as a means to provide new stimuli for economic growth."
Since its inception, however, the initiative has been riddled with problems.
"From the very beginning, agenda-setting within the format was largely dominated by the Chinese side. At the same time, CEE capitals often failed to not just promote, but also come up with their own ideas about what kind of cooperation with China would best serve their interests,” Simalcik said.
“With this, the format's annual summits were reduced to mere talk shops, which also served Chinese domestic propaganda purposes."
Also known as the 16+1, the group has included Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. When Greece joined in 2019, it was renamed 17+1.
From 2013 to 2019, seven meetings were held: six in the capitals of Romania, Serbia, Latvia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croatia and one in Suzhou, China.
Members have not held an in-person leadership meeting since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and it has been three years since Chinese President Xi Jinping attended a video conference.
During that same period, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania announced their withdrawal, while China's relations with the Czech Republic and other central and eastern European countries deteriorated.
Ja Ian Chong, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, tells VOA’s Mandarin service that many central and eastern European states have grown more cautious — even suspicious — of Beijing and its projects, "especially after seeing Moscow's aggression toward Ukraine and Beijing's continuing support for Russia.”
China’s outward investment projects have started to decline and the economic incentives for cooperation are now no longer as great, Chong adds.
China’s “transnational repression within Europe and diplomatic spats with Czechia and Lithuania that came with economic punishment further reduced appetite for cooperation with Beijing," he said.
Simalcik said China's sanctions of members of the European Parliament over the Xinjiang issue and its interference in central and eastern European states’ interactions with Taiwan, especially Taiwan-Czech Republic relations, have also made cooperation between the two sides more difficult.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to unify it with the mainland.
Xinjiang is a region of China where Beijing is accused of human rights violations against Uyghur Muslims. Beijing denies the accusations.
Filip Sebok, a China researcher at the Association for International Affairs in Prague, told VOA Mandarin that much has changed since China initiated the 16+1 mechanism in 2012.
While China could present itself at that time as a mostly economic actor, "It is now clear for most European nations, including those in CEE, that China also presents certain security and geopolitical challenges," he said.
"At the same time, the authoritarian turn within China, human rights abuses, and the spillover of its authoritarian outreach abroad have also changed perceptions of China," he added.
However, cooperation between China and CEE countries has not been fruitless, Chong said.
"In essence, CEE states that are more authoritarian and have friendlier ties with Russia tend to be more positive about the cooperation with the PRC," he said.
Sebok said if Beijing wants to win the support of CEE countries, it should meet these countries' expectations for economic cooperation. The mismatch between expectations and results led to the decreasing profile of the China-CEE cooperation format.
"However, we might yet see a reinvigoration of the format in some form. An important factor is the rising Chinese investment in electromobility supply chains, which we are seeing mainly in Hungary, but also in Slovakia and Poland. This might give the cooperation a new impetus," he said.
Changes in the political situation in Europe and the United States may also create opportunities for restarting cooperation.
Sebok said that Slovakia, after parliamentary elections in 2023 and presidential election this year, "is exhibiting signs of seeking a closer relationship with China, which might enlarge the group of China-enthusiastic countries."
If the United States elects a new president and changes its approach to the EU, that “might also create new opportunities for China to take advantage of the uncertainty in the region and increase its influence," he said.
The United States holds its presidential election this November.
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
