Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been branded “a dictator without elections,” but rivals are already circling for his job as expectations mount of a vote later this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s broadside at Zelenskyy hit a sensitive spot. Presidential elections in Ukraine should have been held in March or April 2024.
But they were not — due to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine’s constitution bars elections during martial law, which was imposed by Kyiv just a day after the Kremlin launched its all-out war in February 2022.
There are also major security concerns. Packed polling stations would make tempting targets for a Russian military that has repeatedly struck civilian targets, including schools, hospitals and apartment buildings.
RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service found people in Kyiv opposed to the idea when it spoke to them on Feb. 20.
“We have Russian-occupied territory where people will not be able to vote and will not be able to make their own choice,” said one woman.
“Who can run a campaign in a time of war?” said another voter.
The same day, some 130 Ukrainian civic groups issued a joint statement declaring the impossibility of holding elections under current circumstances.
“Only after the end of the war and the achievement of a stable peace … will it be possible to organize elections freely, fairly, democratically, and accessibly,” they wrote.
Nevertheless, presidential hopefuls are already making what appear to be their first cautious moves. There’s expectation in the air that some kind of ceasefire or peace deal will emerge this year, making elections possible within a matter of months.
Former President Petro Poroshenko has even given a date, Oct. 26, which he says was revealed by insiders in Zelenskyy’s office and which would coincide with other elections.
“According to the constitution, there should be parliamentary elections at the end of the year. Although they should have taken place two years ago. And at the end of October, we should have had local elections," he said.
Zelenskyy’s party denied any plans for Oct. 26. The president has said elections could take place this year if martial law is lifted — something that would be possible after a deal to stop the fighting.
Pro-Russian figures have also started getting active. Yuriy Boyko, who came in fourth in the 2019 election, launched a TikTok campaign in December that echoed Kremlin talking points and earned him an invitation for questioning from Ukraine's Security Service.
Sergey Lagondinsky, a member of the European Parliament for Germany’s Green Party who grew up in Russia in Soviet times, wrote recently: “Putin hates Zelenskyy because he ruined his plans to subjugate Ukraine. And he dreams of getting a pro-Russian candidate after a grueling war.”
But many analysts believe the aim of getting a pro-Kremlin puppet elected has little chance after three years of war in which Russian forces have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.
Still, when the election does come, it could be brutal.
“Everyone will be accusing each other of being at fault at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion,” said Oleh Saakyan, co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion, a civic group.
Speaking to Current Time, he predicted a battle of “veterans against veterans, soldiers against soldiers.”
“The president’s seat right now is an electric chair,” he said.
Zelenskyy’s hottest potential challenger has not made any public moves. In fact, he’s not even said he wants to run. Yet former army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy is widely regarded as waiting in the wings from his current position as Ukraine’s ambassador in London.
Opinion pollsters are already asking the public what they think — and Zaluzhniy has been coming out on top.
But a lot can happen between now and any future polling day. Much will depend on what kind of diplomatic deal is struck, if any, to silence the guns.
