As summer campaigning heats up ahead of Taiwan’s January 2024 presidential elections, a competitive three-way race is taking shape, which analysts say could make this ballot different from previous ones where relations with the island’s big neighbor — China — typically cast a long shadow over other campaign trail issues. Youth voters could also play a more crucial role, analysts add.
“This election may not be a straightforward referendum on China politics as it used to be,” Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University’s (ANU) Taiwan Studies Program, told VOA.
Taiwan has had three peaceful transitions of power since holding its first presidential elections in 1996. In every race since then, the issue of building closer ties with China or consolidating Taiwan’s own identity and sovereignty has been a key focus.
And in this election, the issue is still there.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been highlighting the importance of safeguarding Taiwan’s democracy and reducing China’s economic influence on Taiwan while the China-friendly opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) has long advocated for closer economic ties with Beijing.
However, to distance itself from the “China factor,” a third party, the Taiwan People’s Party, has focused its campaign on the agenda of “ending political division in Taiwan.”
“If the DPP wins the election, political dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will remain very difficult, but with a KMT government in power, cross-Strait economic and trade relationship will most likely improve,” said Sung.
However, Sung thinks that if the third-party candidate can prove himself to be a viable option, it may suggest that there is a desire at the grassroots level to see presidential elections in Taiwan be more than just a referendum on political parties’ China policy.
Different views, young voters
In recent weeks, candidates from the three parties have begun campaigning around Taiwan, home to more than 19 million registered voters.
So far, William Lai, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a doctor-turned-politician and Taiwan’s current vice president, has been leading in most opinion polls. At a national convention for his party earlier this month, Lai stressed the importance of strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities while expressing his willingness to hold dialogue with China on an equal basis.
Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), a doctor-turned-mayor, has surged to second place in polls in recent weeks. During a campaign event on July 23, Ko, who entered politics in 2014, vowed to initiate a “color revolution” in which Taiwanese people set aside their political differences and build up Taiwan together.
Hou Yu-ih from the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), a former police chief-turned-mayor, has struggled to appeal to the party’s support base and has seen his approval rating drop rapidly. During KMT’s national convention on July 23, Hou, who trails behind in most polls, tried to frame the upcoming election as a choice between “war and peace” and promised to “bring Taiwan away from war.”
As the DPP and KMT look to consolidate support from their political bases, TPP’s Ko has focused on cultivating support among young voters, with several polls showing him as the frontrunner among voters between the age of 20 and 40.
“Young voters are dissatisfied with the traditional political parties, and the current political and economic situation in Taiwan makes them feel powerless,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan. With a high level of distrust in traditional politicians, Chen believes that’s why young people are willing to give third-party candidates like Ko a chance.
Political division
Some young voters tell VOA they believe the only way to end longstanding political division created by the two main parties, the DPP and KMT, is to support a viable third-party candidate like Ko.
“The DPP and KMT have long been framing Taiwan’s future as a choice between unification with China or safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said Jack Lin, a 34-year-old engineer living in the southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung.
Lin hopes Taiwan can let a political party with a different vision lead Taiwan amid the increasing military threats and diplomatic pressure from China. “I don’t want Taiwan to keep being governed by the two main parties, so Ko is young people’s hope to end this cycle. He is the right man at the right time,” he said.
Other young voters, however, are skeptical of Ko’s ability to lead Taiwan at such a critical time. Some think he lacks experience in international relations and can often seem erratic when making public statements. “Taiwan can’t afford to let an inexperienced politician be our president at this time,” Molly Hsieh, a 27-year-old secretary in the southern city of Tainan, told VOA.
Apart from young people’s desperation to see political change, Chen from Soochow University says Ko’s active presence on popular social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram is another reason he polls so well among young voters. “His team began to produce short videos on these platforms since the early stage of the campaign, which helps him to dominate the online space now,” he explained.
Voter turnout crucial
Despite his popularity among young people, experts say Ko may not be able to win the presidential election by simply relying on this demographic, as voter turnout has traditionally been lower among young voters.
Data from Taiwan’s central election commission shows that while more than 70% of voters under the age of 40 turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election, which was higher than the 2016 presidential election, the turnout rate is still lower than that of voters between the age of 55 and 75, which exceeded 80%.
“Even if Ko won all the youth votes, it’s still not enough for him to win the presidential election,” Yen Wei-ting, an assistant professor at Franklin and Marshall College, told VOA. However, Yen believes Ko’s popularity among young voters will still be crucial for his party, the TPP, to win enough seats in the parliament and potentially become the “key minority.”
In her view, while young voters won’t be the decisive voting block for the presidential race, their votes will have an impact on the legislative front.
