China is in the midst of a sweeping anti-corruption campaign that has seen a growing number of high-ranking military officials removed from their posts. The campaign has been so expansive that when China hosts the Two Sessions next week – Beijing's biggest political event of the year – more than a dozen military officials will not be able to attend.
In late February, just days before the Two Sessions begin on March 4, authorities in China announced that Tan Ruisong, former chairman of the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China, or AVIC, was the latest target of the government’s anti-corruption campaign. AVIC is a major defense contractor and aircraft manufacturer that is on Fortune’s Global 500 list. The anti-graft watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), said Tan took huge bribes and "lived off the military sector."
There has been no public response from Tan or AVIC.
Analysts say the purges are part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to ensure personal loyalty towards himself within the rank and file of the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, and less about corruption. More than 14 senior officials have been punished in the past two years.
There have been several reports that China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun, a naval officer, may have been put under investigation, although the Foreign Ministry previously denied that was the case late last year. Analysts say they will be watching closely to see if Dong attends the Two Sessions meetings next week.
China’s leader has also fired General Li Yuchao, the head of the PLA’s Rocket Force unit — which is responsible for the country’s rocket and missile systems — as well as his deputy. Those sacked are part of the ongoing second wave of disciplinary actions that have included four generals, eight lieutenant generals and two major generals. At least three more aerospace defense executives have been expelled from China's top political advisory body.
In his remarks to senior military leaders last June, Xi was clear about the intention of the crackdown.
"We must uphold the party’s absolute leadership over the military," he said, adding that "the gun barrel must always be grasped by people who are loyal and reliable to the party."
Xi’s remarks echoed a phrase that Communist Party’s founder Mao Zedong coined, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."
Some see the ongoing anti-corruption campaign as a sign of political struggle within the party.
"Purges are likely a manifestation of growing challenges against Xi by other party leaders. Those military leaders suspected to be less loyal to Xi are likely to be subjected to pre-emptive removal," Yoichiro Sato, a professor at the College of Asia Pacific Studies in Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, told VOA.
"Corruption in the military is nothing new. Corruption charges are a tool of Xi for going after potential challengers to his rule," he said.
The anti-corruption drive is also causing a good amount of political confusion because the targets include those regarded to be close to Xi. They included Miao Hua, who held one of China’s most powerful positions as a member of the Central Military Commission and was head of its Political Work Department.
Two consecutive ministers of defense, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, also were removed and punished in 2023. Li was removed while in office, and Wei after he had stepped down.
Wei served as China’s Defense Minister from March 2018 to March 2023. Before that, he was the commander of the PLA Rocket Force.
Miao’s suspension showed that the drive had expanded to the Political Work Department, which acts as the Communist Party’s eyes and ears within the military force. Previously, the anti-corruption campaign concentrated on military departments involved in defense procurement like the Rocket Force unit and the Equipment Development Department, which are regarded as hotbeds of corruption.
Analysts say the purges may further strengthen Xi’s position, but they may have negative implications for China as well. They would not just affect the military’s morale but could also hamper its ability to fulfil the party’s plans to take over Taiwan.
"If Xi cannot be sure that the PLA would be able to prevail in the case of a conflict, he is less likely to take on the risks that an operation against Taiwan or in the South China Sea, for example, would entail," said Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute of China Studies. "In the short run, and at least while this second anti-corruption drive takes place, Beijing’s appetite for initiating an open conflict might be reduced."
Rocket Force hit hard
Xi has himself raised questions about the PLA’s ability to accomplish essential functions of a modern mission command and accused it of suffering from "peace disease," said Roy Kamphausen, senior fellow for Chinese security at the Washington-based National Bureau of Asian Research.
"The decade-long campaign against corruption in the PLA has had a negative impact on morale and thus ability to accomplish its missions, despite technological advances," Kamphausen told VOA. "All of this suggests that whatever inclination Xi might have to take Taiwan by force is reduced," he said.
The Rocket Force – which would play a critical role in a potential Taiwan conflict – has been hit hard by anti-corruption purges, Mohan Malik, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, told VOA.
"Morale and capability suffer when leaders skim off the top or push subpar gear. This suggests the PLA may be less effective than it appears on paper, even as China fields advanced missiles, stealth fighters, and an expanding navy," he said.
Xi cannot permit dissenting generals to continue in crucial positions because of the evolving international situation and the potential for a future global conflict, said Evan Ellis, a Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College.
"Xi is conscious that he will have to call on the PLA in a global war with the U.S. in the not distant future. It is vital that he eliminate any risk of dissent or challenge to his political authority on the military," Ellis told VOA.
