Iran's brazen missile attack on Israel has heightened tensions across the Middle East, with some analysts predicting a powerful Israeli response.
What is less certain is whether this will be a one-off exchange or ignite a series of tit-for-tat strikes that could engulf the entire Middle East in conflict.
"It could go either way," said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "At every exchange, the actors – Iran and Israel – have options to escalate or de-escalate. There is no predetermined path that they must choose."
James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, noted that Israel enjoys a distinct military advantage over Iran and is certain to “strike back hard.”
“Iran’s escalation capabilities to attack Israel are limited technically,” Jeffrey, who chairs the Mideast program at the Wilson Center, told VOA via email. “Israel in return has enormous escalation capabilities against Iran. At the end of the day military strength can be decisive.”
In a statement released Tuesday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it crried out the attack in retaliation for the Israeli killings of three key figures: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and an Iranian commander.
Involving nearly 200 ballistic missiles, this was Iran's second and largest direct attack on Israel from its own territory. In April, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic base in Syria.
In both attacks, Israeli defense systems, supported by U.S. forces, intercepted most of the missiles, preventing significant damage. However, unlike its measured response in April, Israel is expected to respond more forcefully to the latest strike. In a video statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iranian leaders made a "big mistake" and warned that they will "pay for it."
Why now?
Prior to the latest attack, Iran's muted response to a series of Israeli strikes on Iranian officials and proxies in recent months had raised doubts about Tehran's willingness to confront a stronger adversary.
That may be so, but Iranian officials could not sit back and watch one of their key allies, Hezbollah, decapitated by Israel, Shaikh said.
"They need(ed) to push back both to protect Lebanese Hezbollah and also to show to their other proxy groups and allies across the region that they will defend their interests," Shaikh said in an interview with VOA.
The Iranian strike follows Israel's ground incursion into southern Lebanon on Monday, after weeks of airstrikes that have killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and crippled Hezbollah's leadership.
Israel describes the operation as "limited, localized and targeted," aimed at driving Hezbollah forces away from the border area and dismantling its military infrastructure. Hezbollah reported clashes with Israeli forces Wednesday, demonstrating their fighting capacity despite their leadership’s decapitation, experts say.
Meanwhile, uncertainty looms over whether the situation will further escalate. Following Iran's attack in April, the Biden administration persuaded Israel to respond with restraint. Whether a similar diplomatic effort will be mounted or is desired remains uncertain, experts say.
The stakes appear higher this time. President Joe Biden said he directed the U.S. military to help Israel shoot down the Iranian missiles, adding, "Make no mistake: the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel."
Jeffrey, the former envoy, said that following the April attack, the understanding between Israel, the U.S. and Iran was: "This is the last time, Bubba. If you do this again, there will be a serious retaliation."
The question now is how far each side will test the limit of the other's tolerance.
Shaikh, the CSIS analyst, warned that the longer the conflict drags on, the more political pressure each side will face to "engage with more firepower, and that's a concern."
Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the Iranian attack “is going to be seen as a relatively impotent effort on the part of Iran to save face.”
Israel’s Netanyahu might see it as a chance to strike hard at Iran, but the potential for continued conflict remains uncertain, Landis said.
“It's very difficult though to know how the two sides calculate in this and whether escalation can be avoided,” Landis said in an interview with VOA.
A shooting war between Israel and Iran could further escalate tensions in the region but no other country is likely to join in the fray, blunting the prospects for a regional conflict, he said.
“I think everybody is extremely anxious and worried,” Landis said.
