Russia's military offensive to assert authority over Georgia's
breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions is having profound
international repercussions and threatens to severely damage relations
between Washington and Moscow.
Russia's military offensive to seize South Ossetia and Abkhazia
is having major international repercussions. The two regions declared
independence from Georgia in the early 1990s, but have failed to gain
international recognition.
While Russia and Georgia blame each other for starting the hostilities,
Russia's seizure of the breakaway territories and its drive further into
Georgia is seen by many senior officials in Europe and the United States
as an act of aggression against a democratic country.
President Bush has expressed U.S. support for Georgia and warned Moscow
of the consequences of not withdrawing its forces.
"Russia's ongoing action raises serious questions about its intentions
in Georgia and the region. In recent years, Russia has sought to
integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic and security
structures of the 21st century. The United States has supported these
efforts," said Mr. Bush. "Now Russia is putting its aspirations at risk by taking
actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those
institutions. To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the
United States, Europe and other nations, and to begin restoring its
place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis."
Why Move Now?
Russia experts are offering various interpretations for the Kremlin's
military actions. Ariel Cohen of The Heritage Foundation says Moscow is
reacting to the West's embrace of Georgia and its democratically-elected
president -- Mikheil Saakashvili.
"Russia is using its military force to rebuild its sphere of influence.
Sphere of influence, of course, is a 19th century notion. Russia is
still thinking in 19th century terms and wants to exercise its military
power to rebuild this sphere of influence," says Cohen. "They see it as an old
Russian empire sphere of influence or, if you want, the territory of the
old Soviet Union. Maybe with the exception of the Baltics, that's what
they want to grab. And Ukraine is becoming the next domino."
Georgia, Ukraine and other independent states were once part of the
now-defunct Soviet Union. During the Cold War, Moscow also tightly
controlled the countries of Eastern Europe. It resorted to military
force in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 to crush
independence movements.
Today, some analysts say that Russia -- under its powerful former
President and now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin -- may be heading in a
similar direction.
Many analysts say Mr. Putin, who governed Russia
from 2000 until earlier this year, is running the country given his
dominant role in making decisions during this crisis, overshadowing his
hand-picked successor -- Dmitri Medvedev.
Ruth Wedgwood, an international law expert at The Johns Hopkins
University, says Russia has been using its vast energy resources and
growing economic power to exert influence over Eastern Europe and that
Moscow's incursion into Georgia is a major step.
"Their clear intent to have an influence, more than economic, kind of
economic and political, in Central Europe, now is superseded, in my
mind, by this quasi-1956 Hungarian style-threat. That if you don't
abide by certain, unwritten blue lines [i.e, limits] we'll come into
you," says Wedgwood. "So I see it as very ominous. And Russia, if it wants to
re-establish any reputation as a responsible power in Europe, has to
withdraw quickly, withdraw completely."
Western Options
Many analysts say the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization have limited options to change the situation on the ground
in Georgia. President Bush and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
have made clear that Moscow's participation in the Group of Eight
industrial democracies and other international forums is in jeopardy.
In urging Moscow to end its military operations, Rice had harsh words
for Russia. "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can
threaten its neighbors, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get
away with it. Things have changed," said Rice.
Yet some experts say the West is limited in pressuring Moscow, because
it still needs Russian cooperation to resolve thorny international
issues such as curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Charles Kupchan served on the National Security Council during the first
Clinton administration and is now with the Council on Foreign Relations
here in Washington.
"The U.S. needs Russia on stopping Iran's nuclear program; the U.S.
needs Russia dealing with energy prices and supply; the U.S. needs
Russia in Afghanistan and the Middle East peace process. So it seems to
me one needs more proof that Russia is returning to its imperial ways
before one puts on ice [i.e., puts on hold] such an important agenda in
other parts of the world."
However, U.S. officials warn that East-West relations could suffer for
years if Russian military forces do not retreat from Georgia.
