Increased acts of espionage and sabotage, possible direct military confrontation with NATO as early as 2030: German secret services sounded the alarm Monday about the growing danger they believe Moscow's interference in Germany and Europe represents.
It was a bleak picture that the three heads of the German intelligence services painted Monday during their annual hearing before MPs.
"It's burning almost everywhere," said the head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BfV), Thomas Haldenwang, regarding threats from outside — Russia, China, Iran — as well as from within with radical Islam and the extreme right.
Intelligence officials have been particularly vocal about Moscow's interference in Germany in the context of the war in Ukraine, where Germany is the second largest arms supplier after the United States.
"Whether we like it or not, we are in direct conflict with Russia," said the head of the German intelligence and counterintelligence service (BND), Bruno Kahl.
Package bomb?
"Russian espionage and sabotage are increasing in Germany, both quantitatively and qualitatively," added Haldenwang.
Germany has been rocked by several cases of alleged espionage for Russia, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In April, two men with Russian and German citizenship were indicted for planning acts of sabotage for Russia, including at a U.S. military base, to undermine German aid to Ukraine.
Haldenwang accused Moscow of being behind the case of a parcel that caught fire at a DHL carrier center in Leipzig in July before its scheduled transport by plane.
If the package "had exploded on board during the flight," he said, "there would have been a crash and the debris could have affected all the people here in Germany who sympathize with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and his regime, openly and secretly."
Haldenwang also mentioned disinformation campaigns and cases of use of spy drones.
From a "storm," the Russian threat has "become a real hurricane" which moves "from east to west," he added in a metaphor with the Baltic States and Poland, where Russian actions "are much more brutal than they are currently here."
The head of the German military counterintelligence service (BAMAD), Martina Rosenberg, reported a "significant increase in acts of espionage and sabotage" targeting the German army.
Moscow is seeking to obtain information on "deliveries of German arms to Ukraine" and to "create a feeling of insecurity," according to BAMAD.
And the Kremlin "is preparing for further escalation in hybrid and covert actions," Kahl said.
Red lines
With these acts of interference of an "unprecedented level," the Kremlin wants to "test the red lines of the West," estimated the director of the secret services.
For him, Russia will "probably" be able "to carry out an attack against NATO by the end of this decade."
"A direct military conflict with NATO is becoming an option for Russia," he added.
Russia on Monday rejected the assertion by German's foreign intelligence chief that it would be able to attack NATO by the end of this decade, saying it was NATO that threatened Russia.
Referring to successive waves of NATO expansion, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was NATO that had moved toward Russia, not the other way round.
In an interview with the daily Handelsblatt, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser accused Moscow of acting "in an ever more aggressive manner."
German services "prevented possible explosive attacks" and "demonstrated just a few months ago the seriousness of the Russian threat," she also said.
In July, the American channel CNN reported that the United States and Germany had foiled an assassination plot attributed to Russia against the head of the German industrial group Rheinmetall, which supplies arms to Ukraine. The accusations were rejected by Moscow.
In August, fears of sabotage prompted security alerts at two military bases in Germany.
The German government announced Wednesday parallel measures aimed at strengthening security controls, particularly on social networks, in the face of increased risks of espionage in ministries and sabotage of critical infrastructure.
