The Inside Story: USA Votes 2024
Episode 163 – September 26, 2024
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This week on The Inside Story
Biden’s final address to world leaders at the 79th session of The United Nations General Assembly
Plus, foreign policy, and what it might look like after november’s presidential election
Now… on The Inside Story: USA VOTES 2024
The Inside Story:
ELIZABETH LEE, VOA Correspondent:
Hello and welcome to The Inside Story, I’m Elizabeth Lee.
The first sentence of the United Nations Charter lays out a simple goal: to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.
The extent to which that vision is attainable is on display this week as the UN General Assembly meets... and as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah ramps up to levels United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls alarming.
Linda Gradstein has more from Jerusalem
LINDA GRADSTEIN, VOA Correspondent:
Tens of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon have fled their homes since Israel began its airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in the past week. Israel has accused Hezbollah of storing rockets and missiles in civilian areas and has been warning residents to flee.
Fatma Ibrahim Shehab, Displaced From Lebanese Village:
They struck right next to our house and our building was shaking. We got very stressed, this is why we had to leave, and we came here. We were told it is safe here. The situation is very tragic.
LINDA GRADSTEIN:
Israel also struck Beirut for the fourth time since the fighting began almost a year ago. The Israel Defense Forces claimed the target was the head of Hezbollah’s missile unit. News reports said he was killed.
Lebanese officials said among the dead in the past two days were at least 94 women and 50 children.
Israeli officials say Hezbollah has suffered a serious blow in the past week, since thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members exploded simultaneously.
Yaakov Amidror, Jewish Institute for National Security of America:
All in all it’s a huge success eliminating the commanders and the leadership of Hezbollah, hitting very important targets inside Lebanon. But still, we have to be modest. It is only the beginning; it will take a long time to eliminate the capabilities of Hezbollah.
LINDA GRADSTEIN:
Hezbollah also continued to fire rockets at northern Israel. More than 100 missiles injured a number of Israelis and sent residents running to bomb shelters.
Despite the heavy fighting, both sides seem to stop short of a full-scale war. Israel has not sent ground forces into Lebanon, and Hezbollah has not fired on central Israel.
But Amidror notes that Israel wants a buffer zone from the Lebanese border to the Litani River.
Yakov Amidror, Jewish Institute for National Security of America:
If someone from the outside – Americans, the French, whoever -- would not have the ability to bring an agreement within which Hezbollah will remain north of the Litani, probably we have to send the ground forces to clear the area of the launching pads of Hezbollah, to build kind of a security zone in which we will not let Hezbollah members to go in.
LINDA GRADSTEIN:
International concern is growing that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah may deteriorate into a full-scale regional war that could force other nations to intervene.
Josep Borrell, EU Foreign Affairs Chief:
We need to continue asking for this immediate cease-fire across the line, as well as the situation in Gaza. They are not different. They are interlinked. They are strongly interlinked. What's happening in Gaza is triggering other war scenarios.
LINDA GRADSTEIN:
Speaking at the United Nations today, President Joe Biden said he is determined to prevent regional war and called for a diplomatic solution between Israel and Hezbollah as well as between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Linda Gradstein, VOA News, Jerusalem.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The 79th United Nations General Assembly marks the last time U.S. President Joe Biden will address his counterparts. Biden spoke of the world’s collective accomplishments, short comings, and the future of the body as a whole.
From New York, VOA’s Anita Powell has the story.
ANITA POWELL, VOA White House Correspondent:
Hope, unity and service: President Joe Biden’s parting message to world leaders in his final speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday.
The U.S. leader covered a lot of ground in his valedictory address before world leaders. As expected, he urged the world to work together to end conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan. And he touted his administration’s work in health and climate mitigation.
But it was this line – about his decision not to seek reelection that garnered the most applause from the audience, which included leaders from the body’s 193 member states.
President Joe Biden:
My fellow leaders, let us never forget some things are more important than staying in power. It's your people.
ANITA POWELL:
But his call for a peace deal to end spreading conflict in the Middle East shows how deeply divided this international body is.
President Joe Biden:
Even as the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible. In fact, it remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes in the border safely. And that's what we're working tirelessly to achieve.
ANITA POWELL:
But the conflict in Gaza, like the one in Ukraine, will likely not end with Biden's presidency, analysts say.
John Fortier, American Enterprise Institute:
I think the president is trying to toe the line that he's always toed, support for Israel, but really indicating also some sympathy and understanding of the plight in Gaza, and some hope that it will be resolved, but not really being able to control the situation very directly.
ANITA POWELL:
Washington’s strong support of Israel has tested its standing at the U.N., where many members are critical of Israel’s actions, both in Gaza and now in Lebanon. On Tuesday, the head of the international body warned of what he called “politically indefensible and morally intolerable” impunity.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General:
Nothing can justify the abhorrent acts of terror committed by Hamas on October 7th, or the taking of hostages – both of which I have repeatedly condemned. And nothing can justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.
ANITA POWELL:
This annual event is a chance for the world’s governments to discuss shared challenges and shared visions. The big question now, from Gaza to Ukraine to Sudan: What are they going to do about it?
Anita Powell, VOA News, New York.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Iran has long been a thorn in the side of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond. Now, the Islamic Republic threatens the United States through its ally Israel. Iran backs the Lebanese Hezbollah militias to Israel’s north and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. With both groups attacking Israel for what they describe as payback for its invasion of Gaza and the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in the conflict. Michael Lipin examines how both candidates Harris and Trump differ – and overlap – on their approaches to Iran and its proxies.
MICHAEL LIPIN, VOA Correspondent:
Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris has focused her relatively brief remarks about Iran on one concept: defense.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
And know this: I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
In her debate with her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, she pledged to extend that defensive approach to Israel, saying:
Voice of Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
I will always give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
The Biden-Harris administration helped Israel defend itself against an unprecedented aerial assault by Iran in April.
It also sent warships to the region last month to deter Iran from doing so again.
Emphasizing that approach could endear Harris to some Americans.
Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution:
I think that she knows Americans are tired of war and certainly doesn’t want to sound like she’s looking for another. And so, who can be against defense, right? But Americans are wary about offense. So, perhaps that can be part of it, especially given the history of the last quarter century.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
But the Biden-Harris administration also saw Iran’s proxies escalate their aggression in August, striking U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria and executing a U.S. hostage in Gaza.
Victoria Coates, Heritage Foundation:
There has been zero retaliation from the United States. They've retained that defensive posture. My worry is that Iran is getting the message that that they can continue to provoke and to escalate on their terms, and all the United States will do is respond, not take the initiative.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
Trump is emphasizing his record of sanctioning Iran for its malign behavior when he was president.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
I told China and other countries, ‘If you buy from Iran, we will not let you do any business in this country, and we will put tariffs on every product you do send in of 100 percent or more.’
MICHAEL LIPIN:
In the debate, he accused the Biden-Harris administration of enriching Iran and its proxies by easing that pressure.
He also promised to resolve the Iran threat but did not elaborate, saying:
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
Look at what’s going on in the Middle East ... I will get that settled and fast.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
During his term, Trump engaged in a two-year-long “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
MICHAEL LIPIN:
Trump’s avoidance of recommitting to that strategy gives him the option of pursuing a new policy that pressures Iran more quickly.
One similarity between Harris and Trump is that neither of them says what they will do if Iran makes a nuclear bomb, a prospect that Iranian officials have hinted at.
Michael Lipin, VOA News, Washington.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Ask Ukrainians what they think about the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and you’re likely to hear the same thing: hope for a quick end to Russia’s invasion.
But both candidates Harris and Trump give Ukrainians cause for concern.
For more on this story, we go to Kyiv where Anna Chernikova has this report.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA, Reporting for VOA:
In the capital, Kyiv, and elsewhere in Ukraine, people wonder and worry about the outcome of U.S. elections and how it will affect their war-battered homeland.
Some residents, like Anhelina, express hope.
Anhelina, Kyiv Resident:
I have expectations that the future president will support us. Our politics, our military actions.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
Other residents, like Dmytro, are worried.
Dmytro, Kyiv citizen:
I wonder who will win and in general what will be the policy towards our country. This is what I’m interested in. And God grant that both of them will support us.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
The biggest fear is that the new U.S. administration will end its support and abandon Ukraine in its fight against Russia, says political analyst Mykola Davydiuk.
Mykola Davydiuk, Think Tank Politics:
Turning a once democratic country into an autocracy costs millions of deaths. And this is what the country is afraid of.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
After two and a-half years of war, a key factor affecting morale in Ukraine is the uncertainty of what is to come under a new White House administration.
Trump promises to end the war quickly, and many fear that means Ukraine would be forced to make too many concessions if he returns to office.
At the same time, Ukrainians remember that Trump as president approved the sale of Javelin anti-tank systems that helped Ukraine fight Russia at the start of the full-scale invasion.
The Obama-Biden administration had rejected Ukraine’s request for those weapons in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea and took over much of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region.
But feelings among Ukrainians are mixed with some, like Svitlana, fearing a Trump victory.
Svitlana, Kyiv Resident:
Trump is such a strange man, and he has quite strange thoughts.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
And others, like Ivan, find reassurance based on past experience.
Ivan, Kyiv Resident:
Trump was already the president, his methods are known and there is nothing to be afraid of, I think.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
The U.S. under the Biden administration has been generous with Ukraine, spending $175 billion dollars to support it since the start of the full-scale invasion. But there's frustration among Ukraine's leaders who say the aid has been slow to arrive.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President:
The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of a situation when we are waiting for supplies from our partners, especially from the United States of America. And that is exactly why the speed of deliveries means stabilizing the front.
ANNA CHERNIKOVA:
Analysts say if elected, Kamala Harris' policies would likely be like Biden's, and the prospect of continuity is reassuring to some.
But it makes others nervous that the war could drag on.
A poll by the Razumkov Centre in Kyiv finds 44% of Ukrainians surveyed think Ukraine and Russia should start peace negotiations soon, but most respondents see Putin’s conditions as unacceptable.
With fatigue building among Ukraine's top supporters in Europe, many here see the U.S. elections as more of a lifeline than ever, albeit one that is not entirely certain.
Anna Chernikova, Voa News, Kyiv.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Ukraine faces wildly different prospects under a President Harris or a President Trump. But as both campaigns sprint toward the finish line, neither candidate has yet explicitly outlined a plan to deal with Russia’s war on Ukraine. Experts say that in the months ahead until the election, Ukraine’s battlefield victories put it in the driver’s seat of its own destiny.
Again, VOA’s Anita Powell has more.
ANITA POWELL:
Ukraine’s ancient capital knows well what it’s like to be tossed about by the waves and whims of powerful forces – and so analysts there seem ambivalent on a possible second term for former President Donald Trump.
Oleksiy Melnyk, Razumkov Centre Analyst:
There is a prevailing opinion that the return of Trump to the White House is not the best scenario for Ukraine, although there are also cautious opinions that everything may not be that bad.
ANITA POWELL:
Trump has said he will swiftly end the war though his running mate, JD Vance, once said he “doesn’t really care” about Ukraine – leaving Ukrainians unsure what to think.
This makes a potential Kamala Harris presidency more of a wild card to this nation that knows Trump and President Joe Biden so well.
Harris has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and represented Biden at major transatlantic security summits. But on the trail, Harris has only briefly spotlighted Ukraine – and how she differs from Trump:
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
He encouraged ((Russian President Vladimir)) Putin to invade our allies, said Russia could, quote, do whatever the hell they want. Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelenskyy to warn him about Russia's plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response [of] over 50 countries to defend against Putin's aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
ANITA POWELL:
Analysts say Harris is likely to follow Biden’s “Support-Ukraine” playbook, and Trump’s broad foreign-policy pronouncements remain as vague as ever. Take Trump’s promise that he will end the war in one day:
Andrew Payne, City St George's, University of London:
It's not entirely clear how he'll do that. The fear, of course, is that he'll do it by simply abandoning Ukraine, cutting off funds, and pressuring Zelenskyy into negotiations at a time when Putin would enjoy all of the bargaining leverage.
ANITA POWELL:
But, he says, the battlefield has shifted with Ukrainian forces’ recent decision to strike across the border and take a bite of Russian territory.
While analysts widely predict that Ukraine will neither seek nor succeed in holding this land, it’s a bargaining chip that will help Kyiv whoever wins. And, he said, Biden could also put his hand on the scale at a pivotal stage.
Andrew Payne, City St George's, University of London:
I wouldn't be expecting any shift in the US position vis-a-vis Ukraine's military operations before November, but I would be watching between November and January – whatever the outcome, to see if there is a little bit more of a leash given to Kyiv.
ANITA POWELL:
And he notes, Ukraine’s leader has bolstered his relationships with European leaders and broadened his support.
And so, as these two race to the end of this story, what could end up happening in Ukraine ultimately may not be up to the American president – whoever she or he is.
Anita Powell, VOA News, Washington.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The Biden and Trump administrations both accuse China of unfair trade practices and flooding international markets with artificially cheap goods. Analysts say both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could use tariffs to counter China and boost U.S. manufacturing jobs. Here’s my report on how this trade war may impact consumers.
This $6, made in China bicycle bell could cost $9.60…if additional tariffs proposed by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump becomes reality.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
We’re doing tariffs on other countries. Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world. And the tariff will be substantial in some cases.
ELIZABETH LEE:
…meaning Chinese made products will be hit with as much as a 60% tariff under Trump’s plan. He also says he will implement blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all other countries. Both Trump and the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris say they want to bring jobs back to the U.S.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
A policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The Biden administration kept most of the import taxes put in place during Trump’s presidency. In May, Biden announced further tariff increases on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including a 100% import tax on Chinese electric vehicles.
The Biden administration says its tariffs are more strategic aimed at specific industries and that Trump’s import tax takes on a broader approach that will cost a middle-class American household $4,000 more a year. Other estimates are in the range of around $2,000.
Trump says consumers won’t be impacted.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
Who’s going to have higher prices is China and all of the countries who have been ripping us off for years.
ELIZABETH LEE:
But Chinese businesses are not the ones paying the import taxes, explains supply chain expert Christopher Tang.
Christopher Tang, UCLA Anderson School of Management:
During the election years, everyone is promising the moon. But the truth of the matter is that the import tariffs are paid by the U.S. firms.
ELIZABETH LEE:
So, for an imported Chinese-made TV purchased at Costco, it’s Costco that pays the import tax.
Christopher Tang, UCLA Anderson School of Management:
When companies is (are) facing high import tariffs, there are two buttons to push. One is pass the high import cost to the consumers, the other one is squeeze the Chinese factories to lower the price.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Tang says the risk of pushing Chinese companies to lower the price is poor product quality.
Import taxes may mean fewer “made in China” labels printed, but that doesn’t mean there are fewer imports coming from China…they’ll just have a label from a different country says Tang.
Christopher Tang, UCLA Anderson School of Management:
China actually shipped a lot of components and parts to Vietnam, to India for final assembly. And those end products actually is (are) importing into the U.S. as well.
So therefore the total effect on China, they still actually export more, but they're not exporting to U.S. directly.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The World Trade Organization finds tariffs disproportionately effect low-income households, which means a $9.60 bike bell and other everyday products may be out of reach for some consumers…if a 60% import tax is slapped on to Chinese-made products.
Elizabeth Lee, VOA News Washington.
ELIZABETH LEE:
In our press freedom segment this week we go back to a story we’ve been following with you..
Pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai remains jailed in Hong Kong facing widely condemned charges. His son and an international team of attorneys are pushing the United States and other countries to call for Lai’s immediate release. Liam Scott has this story.
LIAM SCOTT, VOA Correspondent:
The son of imprisoned Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai was in Washington this month. Sebastien Lai made his father’s case to U.S. lawmakers.
Sebastien Lai, Son of Jailed Publisher:
The first time I realized I was taller than my dad, I was 13. But I always knew that I wasn’t stronger than him.
LIAM SCOTT:
Years of unjust imprisonment have taken their toll on his father, Sebastien Lai says.
Sebastien Lai, Son of Jailed Publisher:
Given his age, given the fact that he is in the conditions that he’s in, there’s a danger to his life, and he could, you know, it breaks my heart say this, but he could pass away at any moment.
LIAM SCOTT:
Held in solitary confinement since late 2020, the 76-year-old Lai is on trial under Hong Kong’s national security law.
The founder of the now-shuttered Apple Daily newspaper denies the charges of collusion with foreign forces and sedition.
The United States, Britain and international observers have condemned the trial.
Sebastien Lai and his father’s international legal team say Washington’s words matter.
Sebastien Lai, Son of Jailed Publisher:
I think there is a period before the end of this trial where we could put a lot more pressure on the Hong Kong government and eventually see my father released before he passes away in prison.
LIAM SCOTT:
International pressure is the only way to secure Lai’s release, says Caoilfhionn Gallagher. The head of Lai’s legal team says there’s no more rule of law in Hong Kong.
Caoilfhionn Gallagher KC, Doughty Street Chambers Barrister:
He’s someone who could have left Hong Kong at any time, could be having a lovely life living in Washington or living in London or living in Paris, and he chose to stay and stand up for what was right in Hong Kong, and now it’s time we stand up for him.
LIAM SCOTT:
Analysts point to Lai’s case as emblematic of the rapid decline of media freedoms in Hong Kong since it enacted the national security law in 2020.
The country has fallen from 73 to 135 out of 180 countries and territories in the World Press Freedom Index.
Caoilfhionn Gallagher KC, Doughty Street Chambers Barrister:
It’s horrifying to see that happen so quickly, and we’ve just seen freedoms and liberties which Hong Kongers have taken for granted for a very long time just be decimated.
LIAM SCOTT:
Despite international criticism, Hong Kong officials say Lai will receive a fair trial. In a statement to VOA, China’s Washington embassy claimed the publisher tried to destabilize Hong Kong. Lai’s international legal team rejects that claim.
Members of Congress, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have joined calls for Lai’s release.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Former House of Representatives Speaker:
Not only do we remember, we exalt, we lift up the sacrifice of Jimmy Lai.
LIAM SCOTT:
Sebastien says he welcomes the support and tries to stay optimistic.
Sebastien Lai, Son of Jailed Publisher:
I’m sure I’ll see my father again, and I won’t stop until he is free.
LIAM SCOTT:
Lai’s trial is set to resume in November.
Liam Scott, VOA News.
ELIZABETH LEE:
That’s all for now. Thanks for watching.
For the latest news you can log on to VOA news dot com. Follow us on Instagram and Facebook at VOA News.
To get more content from VOA, follow me on X at XXX. Catch up on past episodes at our free streaming service, VOA Plus.
I’m Elizabeth Lee. We will see you next week, for The Inside Story.
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