TRANSCRIPT:
The Inside Story: Midterm Elections 2022
Episode 66 – November 17, 2022
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Midterm elections 2022.
It’s the halfway point of President Biden’s current and first term in office.
Voters cast ballots shaping congress and the future of his legislative agenda.
Did Republicans sweep to power? Or did Democrats fare better than expected.
Our election experts explain the results.
The Inside Story… Midterm Elections 2022.
The Inside Story:
KATHERINE GYPSON, VOA Congressional Correspondent:
Hi. I’m Katherine Gypson, VOA Congressional Correspondent.
There was a time when Election Day meant just that. Everyone who wanted to vote took off from work, lined up outside the local school or church and voted on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Now, Election Day is a deadline to get your ballot postmarked or dropped off --- avoiding the lines or bad weather or not being able to take time from work.
More early voting and vote-by-mail has resulted in higher voter turnout.
One drawback: instead of knowing most of the results on Election Night, it is taking days to know the outcome of the 2022 Midterm Elections.
What we know right now is the conventional political wisdom that Republicans would win by large margins in many parts of the country --- and take control of Congress --- did not play out.
Instead, Democrats have held on to the U.S. Senate --- holding a one seat advantage with one more seat to be determined next month.
And in the House, Republicans have won control, but will likely just a single digit majority like the Democrats had for the past two years.
New members of Congress already arriving in Washington even as votes in some races are still being counted. Republicans are expected to win a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
President Joe Biden:
I think we're going to get very close in the House. I think it’s going to be very close, but I don't think we're going to make it.
KATHERINE GYPSON
But Democrats won key races across the country, preventing an expected Republican “Red Wave” — often defeating candidates hand-picked to run by former President Donald Trump.
Rep.-Elect Wiley Nickel, Democrat:
The message was pretty simple in our race, you know. Folks rejected far-right extremists.
Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy will likely become the next speaker of the House …
Rep.-Elect Michael Lawler, Republican:
Yes, I'm fully in support of Kevin McCarthy as speaker. I think he's done a great job as Republican leader.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
… and in the Senate, Mitch McConnell will remain minority leader after Democrats won close races in Nevada …
Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto, Democrat:
I will always fight for you.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
… and in Arizona, where Democrat Mark Kelly said a defense of abortion rights was a key part of Democrats’ success.
Sen. Mark Kelly, Democrat:
For the Arizona women who have spent months making it loud and clear that they will not stand … they will not stand for having their fundamental right to an abortion taken away.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Kelly’s opponent: one of several Trump-endorsed Senate candidates who lost their races.
Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader:
We won because the American people rejected the kinds of autocracy that some, the MAGA Republicans, a wing of that party, was talking about.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
If Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock wins the December 6th runoff against Republican challenger Herschel Walker, Democrats will hold a 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate. If Warnock loses, Vice President Kamala Harris – a Democrat – will have the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate.
Joining me now is chief national correspondent Steve Herman, who was with voters during this election season. You know, Steve, what did you hear from voters out in the field that showed up in the results on election night?
Steve Herman, VOA Senior National Correspondent:
Well Katherine, what we really heard from voters across the country is they were really sort of fed up with losing whether they were Democrats or Republicans and became much more pragmatic, rejected to be extreme candidates, extreme positions, and really felt like they wanted to see their politicians be able to get things done.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
I certainly heard that from voters to when I was out in the field in Georgia talking, you know, Republican rallies, Democrat rallies that was across the board. Were there any specific issues that people brought up to you?
Steve Herman, VOA Senior National Correspondent:
Well, certainly economy, I think for both Democrats and Republicans, was a big issue. And Democrats actually felt the Biden administration was doing pretty good, where Republicans felt that Congress and the Biden administration were really responsible for the higher prices that they were seeing in supermarkets and at the petrol pumps. Also, for a lot of Democrats, was this abortion issue, the US Supreme Court decision? Now a lot of the political analysts thought that this would sort of fade by the time an election day, but we have to remember in a lot of places people vote really quite early. And so it was still fresh on the minds of many of the voters
You know, both of us were in these key states, Pennsylvania, for you, Georgia, for me that were really key in deciding the balance of power in the US Senate. The voters that I spoke to definitely have that at the top of their minds as to whether they really needed to see Republicans come into power as a balance to Joe Biden. Did you find that to?
Steve Herman, VOA Senior National Correspondent:
Yes, but I think also in a place like Pennsylvania, it was unique down in Georgia, you had some very nationally focused races. In Pennsylvania. We had a Senate race between a very unconvinced to win unconventional politicians. So I would say John Fetterman. The Democrat is the lieutenant governor but have a huge physical presence and a guy who wears a short pants and casual clothing year round. And Dr. Mehmet Oz who is a professional TV talk show host who was painted as a carpetbagger, which means someone who's come from another place. And that really worked against him and the Fetterman campaign hammered away, painting this guy as an outsider. He was supported by Trump, but he definitely wasn't an extreme candidate, as was the Republican gubernatorial candidate who also lost so for the Republicans to get boxed down in Pennsylvania like that was really remarkable.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
You bring up a great point about how the personal political is always personal, you know, John Fetterman’s outfits and all of that kind of stuff. Down in Georgia. We had Herschel Walker who of course, he used to be a very big football star, and then actually makes a difference with voters. When you talk to them. They really weigh that in some of their decision making.
Something that also weighs into the decision making of voters in midterm elections is the first two years of a presidency. It's kind of a midterm report card on how a president is doing. Were voters talking to you about that as well. What did they think of Joe Biden?
Steve Herman, VOA Senior National Correspondent:
Well, Democrats are fairly happy with him, feel he's he hasn't done too badly. He is not a very popular president. We have to say what are these expectations, especially from the annalists, that there would be as Barack Obama put it after his first midterms on shellacking? And so, the Democrats are happy because they can get beaten as badly as they thought they've retained the US Senate the Republicans are unhappy because they didn't get the Senate as they were led to believe they would. And the margin is much closer in the house, but that is certainly a victory for the Republicans, as expected, but what this means is it makes President Biden's next two years, reportedly tough as far as getting anything through this building behind us, right here.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Yeah, we're going to have an interesting time of it for the next two years up there.
Despite the pleadings of many prominent Republicans, Donald Trump confirmed his plans seek the party’s presidential nomination in 2024.
Former President Donald Trump:
I am tonight announcing my candidacy for President of the United States.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Many Republicans blame the ex-president for the party’s under-performance in the midterms.
Many of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost, prompting questions about how tight his grip is on the party.
VOA’s Mike O’Sullivan looks at the MAGA report card from Los Angeles.
MIKE O’SULLIVAN, VOA Correspondent:
The writer and venture capitalist J. D. Vance, endorsed by Trump, was the projected winner of a senate seat in Ohio over Democrat Tim Ryan.
But in Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro took the governor’s seat over Trump-backed candidate Doug Mastriano.
New Hampshire Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan beat back a challenge from
Trump-backed Don Bolduc, who conceded Tuesday night.
Don Bolduc, Republican Senate Candidate, New Hampshire:
And I’m honored to have had the opportunity to represent the Republican Party in the U.S. senate race here in New Hampshire.
MIKE O’SULLIVAN
In the closely watched Pennsylvania senate race, Republican Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor endorsed by Trump, lost to
Democrat John Fetterman, who got help on the campaign trail from former President Barack Obama and President Joe Biden.
Arizona is another contested state, where Trump-backed Kari Lake battled Democrat Katie Hobbs for the governorship. Trump-supported Blake Masters sought the Arizona senate seat held by former astronaut Mark Kelly, a Democrat.
Some polling stations in the Southwest experienced problems, including in Phoenix.
Bill Gates, Maricopa County Board of Supervisors:
People will go, and they try and run the ballot through this tabulator. Maybe one out of every five or so of those ballots, they’re not going through.
MIKE O’SULLIVAN:
He said those ballots will be counted by hand,something Republican Kari Lake found suspicious.
Two Republicans who have frosty relations with Trump nevertheless won reelection, Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia. Trump supported an unsuccessful Republican primary challenge to Kemp, who angered the former president by rejecting the unfounded claim that Trump won Georgia in the last election.
Among other races still to be decided as of Wednesday morning, the governor’s race in Michigan, where incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer faced Trump-backed Tudor Dixon.
And the senate race in Georgia, where the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock, faced former football star Herschell Walker, endorsed by Trump.
The vote count will determine the composition of Congress and the future direction of both parties.
Mike O’Sullivan, VOA News, Los Angeles.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Assurances of election integrity came from the Department of Homeland Security the day after the polls closed.
DHS officials said there’s been no evidence of any deleted, lost, changed or compromised voting systems.
But there is a battle going on against election disinformation on several fronts.
From San Francisco, VOA Silicon Valley bureau chief Michelle Quinn takes us inside the information war.
MICHELLE QUINN, VOA Silicon Valley Bureau Chief:
For most of 2022, senior intelligence analyst Brian Liston noted, it was quiet on fake U.S. social media accounts believed to be from Russia.
That changed in August as the U.S. midterm elections approached.
Brian Liston, Recorded Future:
We saw these accounts beginning to spin up, talking about election fraud or that the election was going to be fraudulent, with ballot stuffing and things like that, or Democrats are going to try to steal the election.
MICHELLE QUINN
Liston is among a network of researchers, cyber security experts, government agencies and others that comb through social media, websites, state media and law enforcement announcements to track coordinated disinformation campaigns stemming from U.S. adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran.
Fake news sites by organizations associated with these governments promote divisive stories about America, that are then promoted by fake social media personas pretending to be Americans.
Russian operatives sow division that the voting system can’t be trusted,
Liston said.
Chinese operatives highlight the volume of online anxiety about the integrity of the vote as evidence that American democracy is not working.
In the southwestern state of Arizona, mathematician Dylan Murphy said he worries about the real-world consequences of online misinformation.
Dylan Murphy, Arizona Voter:
My concern is that foreign actors can spread disinformation and conspiracy theories through social media and kind of pit Americans against each other in a way they wouldn't be, left to their own devices. What is new is we're seeing more in-person direct action resulting from these conspiracy theories, such as people showing up to ballot drop boxes here in Arizona, armed.
MICHELLE QUINN
Arizona was a big part of electoral challenges to the presidential election two years ago, with a Republican recount of results in Maricopa County ultimately confirming a Joe Biden win. Many Donald Trump supporters continue to say that election was stolen, among them Arizona Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lake.
For the midterm elections this year, Maricopa County elections officials took many precautions to protect the ballots and the counting process, they say. The ballot tabulation machines were not connected to the internet.
They livestreamed voters delivering ballots to drop boxes and ballots being counted.
Megan Gilbertson, Maricopa County Elections Department:
In addition to physical security, we also have security over the ballots and over the process with bipartisan boards, political party observers and checks throughout the process to make sure that each ballot is accounted for, and only valid ballots are counted.
MICHELLE QUINN
Arizona voter Miriam Mitchell says the peaceful transfer of power is important.
Miriam Mitchell, Arizona Voter:
Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose, sometimes we don't win, and we felt that they should have won, but we still follow the democratic process. We hand over the torch like we’re supposed to. … That's the only thing that's great about America is our democratic process. And we need to hold on to that.
MICHELLE QUINN
It remains to be seen if all candidates accept the results.
Michelle Quinn, VOA News, Phoenix, Arizona.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
While the founders of the United States established a separation between church and state, religious identity has always been a part of how the political parties try to woo voters.
But some politicians and other leaders are promoting the idea of connecting them — giving Americans a country run with morals based on Christianity.
VOA’s Senior Washington Correspondent Carolyn Presutti went to Manheim, Pennsylvania to take us into the contentious debate.
Ret. Lt. Army Gen. Michael Flynn, ReAwaken Tour America:
When we say it’s a spiritual battle, it is!
Rev. Mark Burns, Harvest Praise & Worship Center:
I am pastor Mark Burns, and I am here to declare war on every race-baited Democrat!
CAROLYN PRESUTTI, VOA’s Senior Washington Correspondent:
This is the cry of Christian Nationalists, looking to frame the midterms. Mainly white Christian Republicans attending the “ReAwaken America Tour,” which is part rally …
Unidentified:
U-S-A! U-S-A!
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
… and part revival.
Unidentified:
I feel the holy spirit come down, giving Jesus a standing ovation.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Diane Bollinger wears a gray T-shirt that says, “Fight Like a Flynn.”
Diane Bollinger, Attendee from Pennsylvania:
We got God out of our country, and this is what you get. We got to put him back.
The ReAwaken Tour has visited 16 cities in the past year and a half. Thousands attend, and tickets typically sell out.
America’s General. … General Michael Flynn!
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
The organizer and star of the tour -- Retired General Michael Flynn, former national security adviser to former President Donald Trump.
Do you believe in the separation of church and state?”
Ret. Lt. Army Gen. Michael Flynn, ReAwaken Tour America:
Um. I think that that’s really … that’s a great constitutional argument — is it in the Constitution somewhere?
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits the government from establishing a religion, which has been upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court as a separation of church and state. Flynn and the attendees disagree and ask …
Ret. Lt. Army Gen. Michael Flynn, ReAwaken Tour America:
They love their faith, and they love their country. So, what’s wrong with that?
Rev. Jim Wallis, Georgetown Univ Center on Faith and Justice:
Christian Nationalism is the No. 1 enemy of democracy.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
Some Christians take offense at the movement.
Reverend Jim Wallis leads off a panel discussion at Georgetown University featuring Reverend Michael Curry, the top bishop in the Episcopal Church. These are all Christians taking offense at Christian Nationalism.
Rev. Michael Curry, Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church:
No, no. I believe in spreading Christianity, in spreading the gospel. But that's not the same as America being a Christian nation. America must be a nation where Christians and Jews and Muslims and Sikhs and atheists can all learn to live together.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
Public opinion shows a variety of views on Christian Nationalism. A Pew Research survey says nearly half think the U.S. should be a Christian nation. But three out of four do not want churches endorsing candidates or discussing politics. And a FiveThirtyEight poll says more than half want the government to enforce the separation of church and state.
Rev. Mark Burns, Harvest Praise & Worship Center:
When people say pastors can't preach politics from the pulpit, that's ridiculous.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Back on the stage, Reverend Cook had pastors take an oath to preach one election sermon before every election and to teach Christians of their sacred duty to vote for Godly candidates.
Which, according to attorney Stephanie Robbins, is probably illegal because of churches’ tax- exempt status.
Stephanie Robbins, Harmon Curran/Former IRS:
There's going to be an opinion on the most ‘Godly candidate,’ and that's going to be depending on the church, a particular person, most likely, and relatively certain that they know who they're talking about. So, yeah, I mean, that's going to cross the line at some point.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
A group called “Christians Against Christian Nationalism” is urging its podcast listeners to speak out against the ideology.
Amanda Tyler, Christians Against Christian Nationalism:
Christian nationalism says that Christianity should be privileged above other religions, and that conflicts with our call to love our neighbors as ourselves.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
ReAwaken tour organizers say the midterms won’t stop the rallies --- they will continue to promote Christian candidates through the next general election in 2024.
Unidentified:
Jesus Christ is my savior. Trump is my president. And Mike Flynn is my general.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI
Carolyn Presutti, VOA News, Manheim, Pennsylvania.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
Several weeks ago, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives if Republicans retake Congress, said there would be no “blank check” --- unlimited money supply --- to support Ukraine against Russia’s attacks.
With a likely divided Congress for the next couple of years, Ukrainians are worried about America’s future support.
With reporting from Warsaw and Kyiv, VOA Eastern European Bureau Chief Myroslava Gongadze explains the concern.
MYROSLAVA GONGADZE, VOA Eastern European Bureau Chief:
On the streets of Kyiv, people worry not only about Russia’s next attack, but also about how the U.S. midterm elections will affect support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials and citizens hope no matter who takes control of Congress, that U.S. aid for Ukraine will continue.
Mykola Davykiuk is a political analyst based in Kyiv.
Mykola Davydiuk, Political Analyst:
We don’t have favorites or the party that we would like it to win. Our main goal is to continue partnerships to receive weapons, money, and political, geopolitical, and diplomatic support.
MYROSLAVA GONGADZE
He emphasizes that for Ukraine, having the U.S. as a stable partner is crucial. And Davydiuk says he believes remarks by both Republicans and Democrats questioning America’s approach toward Ukraine is more about campaign rhetoric than U.S. policy shifts.
Mykola Davydiuk, Political Analyst:
I am more than convinced the support will remain. We are not only good friends, but we are also partners with common values. We are both on the side of Western democracy and fight against autocracy and dictatorship.
MYROSLAVA GONGADZE
Davydiuk's colleagues see potential issues with continued support from the U.S., however.
Volodymyr Fesenko, Political Analyst:
We can face a problem if a Republican majority emphasizes their opposition and takes a more critical look at the budget proposals of the Biden administration. As they have already said, 'No more blank checks.' They will try to have more control over the budget process and control the spending.
MYROSLAVA GONGADZE
According to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, the U.S. total commitment in military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine exceeds $52 billion. European Union countries and institutions have committed over $29 billion.
Ukrainians on the streets of Kyiv consider the U.S. support of Ukraine critical and voice hope for a firm U.S. commitment to Ukraine and its effort to win and recover from the war.
Unidentified:
I think the support will continue. It is really needed, and I think they understand it.
Unidentified:
I would like the support to continue. We will win faster if they support us. We would like the forces who support Ukraine to win and continue to support us not only during the war.
Unidentified:
I hope the support will continue. If not, we will win on our own anyway.
MYROSLAVA GONGADZE
Myroslava Gongadze, VOA News, Warsaw-Kyiv.
KATHERINE GYPSON:
That’s all for now.
Stay up to date with all the news at VOANews.com.
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For all of those behind the scenes who brought you today’s show, I’m Katherine Gypson.
We’ll see you next week for The Inside Story.
