TRANSCRIPT:
The Inside Story: Power & Protests
Episode 65 – November 10, 2022
Show Open:
Unidentified Narrator:
Power and Protests.
Unrelenting unrest in Iran…. Nuclear threats from North Korea…
We’ll take you inside the stories making headlines around the world and show you how the U.S. is responding.
Hear from the reporters and the White House about protests in Iran and about a saber-rattling North Korea.
What’s next?
Now on The Inside Story: Power and Protests.
The Inside Story:
CAROLYN PRESUTTI, VOA Senior Washington Correspondent:
Hi. I’m Carolyn Presutti, VOA Senior Washington Correspondent, from the heart of VOA in its News Center.
Sometimes news shows present incongruent news stories, one right after the other --- with no transition or reason for their order.
In fact, you may have thought that about today’s show. But follow me here --- there’s a thread that runs from Russia’s months-long war on Ukraine --- and the weeks of protests in Iran --- and what seems to be daily launches of missile tests by North Korea.
The thread? Nuclear weapons.
Russia has them and has threatened to use them against Ukraine.
North Korea is believed to have them and is thought to be using the missile tests to send a message.
And Iran wants them and is racing to develop them as the U.S. tries to negotiate a nuclear deal with Tehran ---again.
Today, we will take you through that thread and to show how they all intersect.
Among the many reasons why it’s difficult to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran is its current, deadly crackdown on street protests.
Those demonstrations started in September and have grown, as Iranians seem energized and emboldened in their demands for change --- despite the threat of arrest or death.
In the past, Iran’s security forces have crushed similar movements like this.
Here’s VOA’s Arash Arabasadi.
ARASH ARABASADI, VOA Correspondent:
After nearly two months of Iranians taking to the streets protesting their country’s leadership, people there say security forces now open fire with live rounds and tear gas indiscriminately into crowds and even people’s homes.
It started in mid-September after Iran’s “morality police” arrested 22-year-old college student, Mahsa Amini, for what they described as “immodest attire.” Three days later, Amini died in police custody.
Iran officially blamed a fall for triggering a fatal heart attack, but her father, Amjad, told VOA that was a lie. He says Mahsa Amini had no preexisting health problems prior to her arrest.
Her death put a face on a global movement for human rights.
And that’s when Iranians took to the streets chanting a popular refrain, “Death to Khamenei,” a reference to the country’s supreme leader.
Worldwide demonstrations followed in support of human rights and calling for an end to Iran’s theocratic government.
Unlike previous periods of turmoil in Iran, like the summer-2009 Green Movement protesting a presidential election, the mass demonstrations following Amini’s death have no leadership. Iranians say the government has now turned to jailing protesters and even the lawyers who defend them.
Many of whom land in Evin Prison, notorious for housing political prisoners. Recently a fire engulfed parts of the complex with onlookers reporting gunshots inside. Iran says it was a distraction created by prisoners attempting escape. Others say it was an act of arson by prison officials.
Here’s VOA Persian’s Siamak Dehghanpour speaking with a prisoner in Iran who spent time in Evin, his voice altered to protect his identity.
He refutes the Islamic Republic’s claim that prisoners tried to escape. He says there is no escape from Evin. He describes heavy metal doors and long stretches of land to cover even if those doors came down. He says prisoners would have to run a long way just to reach waiting guards. He says escape is simply not possible. The Washington Post reports at least eight deaths from the blaze with at least one fire started intentionally at a time when prisoners were locked up. Those trying to flee met guards wielding batons and firing live ammunition.
And this all happens against the backdrop of the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. After taking hostage the embassy staff, religious hardliners claimed power, burying Iran’s monarchy and creating instead a theocracy.
But young Iranians are mostly secular, so they are inherently at odds with a government mandating hijabs for women, like the one thought to be at the center of Mahsa Amini’s death. Iranians say they don’t know what comes next or how far the regime will escalate its response to mostly-peaceful protests. Arash Arabasadi, VOA News.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
During a campaign stop ahead of the midterm elections, President Joe Biden pledged his support to those seeking change in Iran.
U.S. President Joe Biden:
Don't worry, we're gonna free Iran. They're gonna free themselves pretty soon.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
That remark prompted quite a few questions about what the President actually meant by it.
VOA’s White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara posed those questions to National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA, VOA White House Bureau Chief:
The first part of that statement, ‘Don't worry, we're gonna free Iran’. That's not a change in policy? Did the President misspeak?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
The President was speaking very plainly, as he has, about how much we stand in solidarity with the Iranian protesters.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Is the President signaling his support for regime change in Tehran?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
What he was signaling was our solidarity with the protesters in Iran. And he's been doing that from the outset, Patsy. I mean, right from the well of the UN, made it clear that we stand in solidarity with these Iranian protesters as they try to fight for their basic human rights, and for what a woman can wear or not wear. The Iranian leadership is dealing with problems of its own making. But ultimately, the future of Iran should belong to the Iranian people.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Staying on Iran, earlier this week, there was a warning of a potential attack on Saudi soil. And the warning was that the attack is imminent within days. Is that still a credible threat?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
We're still watching this threat. We have to take it very, very seriously,Patsy. I don't have any additional updates for you. On the, on the immanence. But we work collaboratively with our Saudi partners here on the intelligence collection side just to see what the threat really is. And again, we took this threat seriously, as we do all threats. I mean, there are 70,000 Americans living in Saudi Arabia, thousands of troops, and we're still committed to helping Saudi Arabia with its self defense capabilities. This is a country that comes under frequent attack from Iran backed rebels in Yemen, the Houthis, and Iran has made no bones about the fact that they're willing to continue to foment the activities of terrorist groups and groups like the Houthis who are willing to use violence inside Saudi Arabia. So, it's a it's a legitimate, valid threat. We take it seriously. And we're going to keep working with the Saudi Arabians to see what we can do to help them defend themselves.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Protests prompted by Mahsa Amini death have spread around the world including right here just blocks from our VOA building here in Washington.
And the emphasis of these protests has expanded to cover all women’s rights. Not just regarding the morality police but also elections, employment, and divorce.
For nearly two decades, Guita Aryan covered the State Department and the US-Iran relationship for VOA Persian.
I talked to her about what, if anything, is different about the protests from those of the past and how they’re being perceived by the rest of the world.
Mahsa Amini’s death did spark the recent movement and something that now many are calling revolution. It's not just the movement anymore. They're calling it a revolution. There is a one revolution hashtag on social media. And it was a began after her burial. And in her hometown, which is a very small town in a remote area. And women were just had had it and they could not take her death that was being fabricated, the cause was being fabricated by the government. And they just to came to the streets and sparked this whole new movement and protests.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
So those protests in her hometown then grew to most of the country right and now they are global. It seemed to have galvanized the whole world behind the Iranian woman's cause.
Guita Aryan:
Absolutely, absolutely. Right. Gradually, it grew from one town to another, to another and all across if you want to major cities, far and away and big and small. After a while maybe people didn't think that this last one is gaining momentum and going. The world began to notice. All across the world, celebrities from the art world, from sports, men and women.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
You mentioned how it's not only women, but it's also men. It's rich, it's poor. But is this group led by a group of younger Iranians and therefore more secular?
Guita Aryan:
This movement, these protests don't have any specific leader and they don't have a face. It's not just one face. It's all women in general. And maybe that is why many argue that that is why it's it has not lost its momentum because it's about all women.
These protests, have broken age old taboos, anyone with regard to the Islamic Republic, and that has come in, in their slogans. The generation that's demonstrating as shown it is not afraid of the regime and more even though they can get killed by snipers or police in the area. It's, I mean, they've called the supreme leader, a dictator. They're calling him by his first name. These were taboos anyone the burning Islamic Republic's banners, or the flag. These things have never happened to this extent, at least before.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
What are you hearing from Iranians about how this will end? Do they think that there will be are they worried there will be a crackdown as has happened in the past? Or do they really believe the government will change?
Guita Aryan:
They are not worried about the crackdown and they’ve shown this because they're still out on the streets. They are still holding protests. And they say that they're going to stand to the end until this regime has toppled.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Will that happen? Can that happen?
Guita Aryan:
It's all up to them if they are able to maintain this momentum, if not make it even more, you know, stronger. It may take a while. But like I said the slogans that they're chanting out on the streets, points to that goal basically. One chant is like I promised my friend who died that I will keep this up to the end or I will give my life to free Iran. That just says a lot.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
From the U.S. government perspective, there is a straight line that runs from Iran to Russia to North Korea.
Here’s more from National Security Spokesman John Kirby. Again, interviewed by our White House Bureau Chief, Patsy Widakuswara.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
At this point, what do we know about what else Iran is doing for Russia beyond sending drones? Have they sent surface to surface ballistic missiles, short range ballistic missiles at this point? Are they still training personnel, Russian personnel in Crimea?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
I don't have an update on Iranian presence in Crimea. We know they were there to provide technical assistance and training for some of these drones that they provided the Russian military. We haven't seen any indication that they've transferred any other weapons or technology, for instance, surface to surface missiles, but we're watching as best we can.
The mere fact that Iran and Russia are talking about the possibility for additional capabilities, be they UAVs or be they missiles, just shows you how much more isolated both countries are from the rest of the international community. And it shows you how desperate Mr. Putin is becoming with his own defense industrial base that he has to rely on outside suppliers like Iran and now, potentially, North Korea.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
South Korea said that it detected 180 North Korean military flights near its border. We know that North Korea has launched dozens of missiles, including one that landed off the coast of South Korea for the first time. This is all happening right before the President's trip to the region. Are you bracing for more provocation, including the possibility of North Korea attempting another nuclear test while the President and the Vice President is in the region?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
We're concerned about these provocations, so many of the ones that you just named over the last 24 hours alone. We've also said that we're willing to sit down with Mr. Kim and the regime in Pyongyang, without preconditions to talk about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That's still the goal that hasn't changed. At the same time, because he's shown no interest in doing that, quite the contrary, he's shown a lot of interest in increasing tensions on the peninsula.
We have to make sure that we're militarily ready for all outcomes, as the US troops on the peninsula like to say, they have to be ready to fight tonight, if need be. Now, obviously, nobody wants it to come to that. But that's why we're conducting yet another annual long planned exercise with the South Koreans. they've extended it for an extra day. We have conducted both bilateral exercises with them as well as our Japanese allies, and trilateral exercises between the three of us, because we have to make sure that we're militarily ready.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
We do see at this point that Moscow does seem to be softening its rhetoric saying that I quote, a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. They also returned to the Black Sea Green Deal. Do you see this as the beginning signs of a detente and what do you credit that?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
I think it's encouraging to hear that the Russians are saying they're not interested in a nuclear exchange. We hope that they actually mean that, because we agree with them. A nuclear war should never be fought and it certainly can't be won. And there's no reason to escalate the tensions, the war inside Ukraine any more than they already are.
Too many Ukrainian people have been killed, too many have been injured, too many have been flung from their homes and are now finding refuge in other countries outside their own home country. The war needs to end. It could end today if Mr. Putin would do the right thing.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Do you see him softening though?
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator:
I think we have to look at what's actually happening on the ground. And what's happening on the ground is that the Russians continue to try to hold and occupy Ukrainian land in the Donbass and in the south. The Russians continue to flow in reservists now, calling up 300,000 reservists. They conducted a sham referendum to try to politically annex ground they couldn't occupy militarily and then try to put martial law in place.
They're going to countries like Iran and North Korea for additional capabilities. This is, we’re judging them by what they're doing, not by what they're saying. What they're doing is showing every indication of continuing to want to prosecute this war and kill innocent Ukrainian people
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
North Korea’s missile tests are not deterring the U.S. and South Korea from continuing their military exercises.
Instead, the exercises have been extended.
VOA Pentagon Correspondent Carla Babb brings us the latest.
CARLA BABB, VOA Pentagon Correspondent:
North Korea firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon designed to carry a nuclear warhead as far as North America.
The test launch, along with five other missile launches Thursday, came hours before Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted his South Korean counterpart at the Pentagon, prompting this strong warning.
Lee Jong-sup, South Korean Defense Minister:
Secretary Austin and I affirmed that any nuclear attack by the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea], including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim Jong Un regime by the overwhelming and decisive response of the alliance.
CARLA BABB:
The two defense leaders announced their decision to extend their large joint military drill on the peninsula beyond its Friday end date, a move North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called a “terrible mistake.”
David Maxwell, Foundation for Defense of Democracies:
What they're in effect doing is showing Kim Jong Un that his strategy is failing. However, ironically, his failed strategy is also what is making him more desperate.
CARLA BABB:
South Korean and U.S. officials have for months warned that North Korea is in the final stages of preparations for what would be its seventh nuclear test since 2006, and its first since 2017.
Critics of U.S. policy have said the North’s nuclear provocations, coupled with the recent missile launches, could be signs that U.S. and South Korean military muscle might not stop Pyongyang from trying to attack Seoul.
Secretary Austin disagrees.
Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense:
I believe that they are deterred from attacking North Korea — South Korea, excuse me — and I also believe they are deterred from employing a nuclear device.
CARLA BABB:
But that reassurance may not ease concerns in certain areas of Japan and South Korea, where air raid sirens warned citizens to take cover from potential incoming missiles.
Carla Babb, VOA News, The Pentagon.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
From Russia’s threat against Ukraine to North Korea’s missile tests, the threat of a nuclear war has many people on edge --- wondering if it could become a reality. Some are even clicking on an interactive “nuke map.”
Others say, there is no need for concern. Here’s VOA’s Veronica Balderas Iglesias.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS, Reporting for VOA:
She describes them as “scary,” but those threats that Russia might go nuclear in Ukraine aren’t yet part of Johneé Wilson’s chatter with friends.
Johneé Wilson, American University Student:
No … we’re probably talking about our Spotify playlist if we are not in class. Our grandparents and parents who may have grown up during the Cold War era, is I felt like the precipice of anxiety was a bit higher for that generation.
Those old worries seem to be making a comeback.
A vast majority of adults polled by the American Psychological Association said they fear the beginning stages of World War III.
Vaile Wright, American Psychological Association:
Back in March 69% of Americans said they were stressed that the attack in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. It’s unclear exactly what the sense of threat is, whether individuals really think that it’s going to hit the shores of the United States, versus this sense of you know, just catastrophic changes in the world.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
These days, the potential consequences of a nuke, including deaths and contamination, can be easily visualized with a click of a button. Go online, select a bomb, map the target and … detonate.
Alex Wellerstein, NUKEMAP Creator:
The traffic in the NUKEMAP has gone up essentially to the highest that’s ever been in 10 years. You have a lot of people in the United States and in Europe in particular, who are trying to find out what nuclear weapon use might look like.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
The hypothetical results are worrying.
But fears about Russian President Vladimir Putin acting on his nuclear threats are overblown,
says William Alberque, an expert on – nuclear proliferation.
William Alberque, International Institute for Strategic Studies:
I don’t think he’d mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops at massive cost to the Russian economy and use nuclear weapons, it would be one or the other. The massive political and economic costs in addition to military costs that Russia would incur with use, all combine to make any nuclear use scenario by Russia seem very, very remote at this time.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
Melvin Hardy was a steward of the “Hiroshima Children’s drawings” on view in the exhibition "Jacob Lawrence and the Children of Hiroshima" at the Phillips Collection Museum in Washington, D.C. Japanese kids who survived did the work two years after the first atomic strike. Some are still alive, their scars – physical and mental - a reminder of the horror.
Melvin Hardy, “Hiroshima Children’s Drawings” Steward:
Many of them have been affected by radiation, illnesses, different kinds of cancers that they’ve had to manage, mitigate. Many of them would not want to speak to us. They did not want to re-live that horror. There are others who are advocates to say never again, we must advocate against the use of nuclear weapons.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
But the weapons won’t go away soon. In fact, Moscow’s nuclear arsenal will be in full display during the drills it holds this time of the year.
The United States and NATO allies say they’ll monitor [quote] ‘very closely’ – as a jittery world stands by.
Veronica Balderas Iglesias, for VOA News, Washington.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
That’s all for now.
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For all of those behind the scenes who brought you today’s show, I’m Carolyn Presutti.
We’ll see you next week for The Inside Story.
