On Plugged In…
Political turmoil …
and street protests …
try to topple two presidents …
in very different countries.
In West Africa...
a military coup in Mali …
has led to chaos ...
regional uncertainty …
and the resignation …
of the country’s president …
And in Eastern Europe ...
Belarus’ president of …
26 years …
Clinging to power …
as hundreds of thousands …
(Ian Bremmer)
“the potential for this to get very dangerous very fast is real.”
Democracy being tested …
in Africa and Europe …
on Plugged In …
“Unrest in Mali and Belarus”
(Greta Van Susteren)
Hello and welcome to Plugged In.
I’m Greta Van Susteren reporting from Washington DC.
This week we examine the political unrest now unfolding in two nations: Mali and Belarus.
Both involve questions over the outcome of elections that kept their current presidents in power.
In Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko wore riot gear and carried a rifle in defiance of tens of thousands of people who for weeks have been on the march – disputing the results of its August 9th election.
Thousands of kilometers to the south Mali’s two-term president resigned under the duress of a military coup.
For years, the West African nation has suffered from conflict and instability.
(Post Coup Instability by Mariama Diallo)
((NARRATOR))
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, or IBK as he’s known, had been in power since 2013. He said he had no choice but step down.
((Ibrahim Boubacar Keita – Mali President (in French) ))
“For seven years I had the happiness and the joy of trying to redress this country through my best efforts.”
((NARRATOR))
In a statement carried overnight on state TV, the soldiers behind Tuesday's military coup identified themselves as the National Committee for the Salvation of the People led by Colonel-Major Ismael Wagué.
((Colonel-Major Ismael Wagué, Spokesman, National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNPS) (in French) ))
"Mali descends into chaos day by day, anarchy and insecurity because of the fault of the people in charge of its destiny. Real democracy doesn't go with complacency.”
((NARRATOR))
Demonstrators had demanded Keita’s resignation during frequent anti-government protests that began in early June.
Gyude Moore is a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington. Moore served as deputy chief of staff to former Liberian president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.
((W. Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development))
“When the protests first started, they were really about increasing salaries of teachers and doctors and as the protests continued without a response from the government, the demand of the protests expanded, then it included the failed parliamentary elections // There was a perception that there were deep corruption within his administration and a significant amount of nepotism.”
((NARRATOR))
Jo Scheuer, Mali resident representative for the U.N. Development Program (UNDP) told VOA from Bamako that while there’s no justification for a coup, it’s important to note that underlying issues go back many years.
((Jo Scheuer, Mali Resident Representative, UNDP))
“The conflict in the country that goes back in terms of decades of unrealized development opportunities and grievances people have in terms of access to basic services, a lack of rule of law and so on. You have the events following the Arab spring, the coup in 2012 in Mali, the ensuing establishment of international terrorists groups in the country and in the sub-region and of course the miscontent around the latest parliamentary elections that are seen as unfair. On top of that with the security situation with a number of massacres the past 18 months.”
((NARRATOR))
The coup has been strongly condemned by the international community, including the African Union, the West African bloc ECOWAS and the United Nations, which has peacekeeping troops in the country.
Instability in Mali is even more concerning given the number of elections coming up in West Africa, says Moore.
((W. Gyude Moore, senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development))
“Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ghana. So we have 5 elections coming up. Two of those elections will present issues. In Cote D’ivoire and in Guinea, we have presidents who are going for a third term and those are already beginning to raise questions, so for ECOWAS the stability of the region is really, really important.”
((NARRATION))
Keita was democratically elected in 2013 and was serving a second term when he was ousted.
MARIAMA DIALLO, VOA NEWS.
(Greta)
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was first elected president by a landslide in Mali’s 2013 election.
He was re-elected to a second five-year term in 2018 on the promise of unifying the fractured country.
But street protests over economic conditions and election fraud added to overall concerns about Mali’s security and any spillover to its neighbors.
Mali is landlocked surrounded by seven countries in Africa’s Sahel region, the semi-arid zone that separates the Saharan desert and the tropical savanna.
It is Africa’s leading cotton producer and fourth in gold production.
The former French colony became independent in 1960.
Mali’s first military coup happened in 1968 and lasted 20 years.
A coup in 2012 opened the door for Islamic militants to gain a foothold in northern Mali.
12 thousand United Nations troops were sent in 2013 to train Malian soldiers and oversee a transition to civilian rule which happened later that year - the elections that brought IBK to power.
(Greta)
The United States has acknowledged that the leader of the military coup participated in training exercises with the U.S. Africa Command.
A spokesperson condemned the mutiny telling VOA that it is “inconsistent with the legitimate role of the military in free societies and everything that is taught in the U.S. military and its training.”
The U.S. has stopped its training and support for Mali military forces and is looking into the situation.
VOA’s Salem Solomon covers this story in our Africa Division.
We talked about the current situation and what’s next.
(Greta Interview - Salem Solomon)
GVS: Salem, I know you don't have a crystal ball but can you give me some of your thoughts on where this mutiny or this coup in Mali is leading?
SS: So, as of today you know the regional bloc that was supposed to be negotiating a transition to civilian leadership, just left. They were said to have a 90 minutes meeting and then the meeting ended in 20 minutes as you've seen in other reports, but the latest news is that a mediation team and the regional bloc of the Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS met with the junta leaders and failed, some sort of agreement to try to try to transfer power back to civilian leadership and the team was led by a former president Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan. The group of military leaders calling themselves the National Committee for the salvation of people who said that they want a three year transition, they changed it to two but it's all about the timeline is not really that shaky but unacceptable to most international community, and in fact for policy the African Union suspended Mali’s membership and the United States halted some military aid.
GVS: Do the Coup leaders care that they've been condemned like by other nations for the non-democratic change of power, does it even matter to them, are there any consequences?
SS: The last two years have been the deadliest, the deadliest on the record for extremist attacks in the Sahel. And regions in Mali continues the region as a whole continues to be very lawless and very volatile for the region and amongst political development as you've seen in Arab Spring for instance around 2011, popular uprisings tend to spread so quickly, especially in the age of social media, and they're hotly contested always. Elections come up. This year across West Africa Ivory Coast is coming up, Guinea is coming up Burkina Faso is coming up so they're also nervous about the instability leaking to their borders. So across West Africa, there is varying levels of discontent among young people with widespread unemployment and political leadership that's not meeting their needs and, you know, lack of representation.
GVS: So there's a national security issue. This is a two-part question what is what's the economic condition of Mali? And secondly, what is sort of what is the economic impact on those neighboring nations of Mali? I've just stated the national security considerations but other economic as well.
SS: Yes, I mean, with, you know, this kind of instability, people could flood into neighboring countries, arms can be flooded into these countries because of instability attacks like, you know, rebel insurgencies coming in and attacking, razing village as we've seen. And in Mali there's a very concerning issue of inter-communal violence, even deadlier than terrorist insurgencies that we've seen in the past years. We're seeing about hundreds of people being killed villagers completely erased from existence. And so, this is happening in the background as political leadership of what people are saying is failing. And so for the region, obviously, when refugees, or when people seek refuge in other countries, they add into economic burden to other countries.
(Greta)
Turning to Belarus now where protestors have been on the march in the capital of Minsk, they are expressing their outrage over the results of an election that has propelled the country’s president Alexander Lukashenko to an unprecedented sixth term in office.
The opposition claims the election was rigged. Belarusian authorities quickly initiated a military crackdown and this week confirmed the arrests of two leading opposition activists.
VOA’s Charles Maynes has more from Moscow.
(Election Scandal by Charles Maynes)
((NARRATOR))
With all precincts counted, President Alexander Lukashenko received nearly 80 percent of the vote.
The win extends Lukashenko’s 26-year hold on power for another sixth term…with the Belarusian leader issuing a warning to those who would ruin his victory party.
((Alexander Lukashenkom, President of Belarus))
"Follow the law and then all these conversations about repressions will disappear.”
((NARRATOR))
Legitimacy is another issue.
Huge crowds in opposition to Lukashenko massed in the capital Minsk and other cities…clashing with interior ministry troops.
Demonstrators say this was an election neither free nor fair. Western powers agree.
After key rivals were prevented from participating, candidates’ wives stepped in.
A star emerged in Svetlana Tikhanovskaya…who only entered the race after her husband, a popular political blogger, was arrested.
But despite attracting tens of thousands to rallies across the country, results showed Tikhanovskaya with less than ten percent of the vote.
((Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Candidate for President))
"We don't agree with the results. We have absolutely the opposite information.”
((NARRATOR))
It’s evidence of a rigged game, say would-be candidates ousted from the race…now in united opposition against Lukashenko.
((Valery Tsepkalo, Unregistered Presidential Candidate (male in English))
“We don’t want to go out onto the streets. We don’t want to go and protest. But he has left us with no choice.”
((NARRATOR))
The election took place in the wake of the coronavirus…a global pandemic the Belarusian leader dismissed as mass hysteria…
As the infection count rose, civil society stepped in to equip hospitals and doctors. It’s a do-it-yourself approach activists say has now transformed Belarusian politics.
((Andrej Stryzhak, Organizer #ByCovid19))
“Belarusians are not the same people they were before COVID. And we see this activeness not only in civil society but among regular people. Changes are already happening starting with the way people think.”
((NARRATOR))
Lukashenko has faced challenges before…and come out on top.
But Lukashenko’s opponents say — either way — they’re witnessing the birth of a new Belarus.
Charles Maynes for VOA News, Moscow.
(Greta)
Lukashenko is often called Europe’s last dictator. It is a title he relishes.
Video was recently circulated of Lukashenko surveying the protests in a helicopter and then exiting the aircraft holding a rifle.
He has stayed in power by making Belarus a buffer to the powerful forces bordering the country.
Belarus occupies precious geo-political space. Europe’s democracies …
to the west and Russia to the east.
In 1918 Poland and the Soviet Union fought over the landlocked country.
And Belarus was occupied by the Nazis during World War II.
When the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine exploded in 1986, 70 percent of the radioactive fallout made its way to Belarus.
In 1991 five months before the Soviet Union dissolved Belarus declared its independence.
In 1994 Alexander Lukashenko became its first democratically elected president.
26 years later he is still in power.
Lukashenko declared himself the winner of the August 9th Belarus presidential election - a claim disputed by opposition party candidates.
More than 7,000 people have reportedly been arrested and hundreds more injured since the election.
(Greta)
Despite the crackdown the protests have grown in size and support.
When an estimated 200-thousand people were protesting in the capital Minsk, 50-thousand Lithuanians joined hands in a human chain from their capital of Vilnius to the border of Belarus.
Kashtus Lashkevich is managing editor for the Belarus Service of Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty.
They are part of the US Agency for Global Media which also oversees Voice of America.
I spoke with Mr. Lashkevich about the impact of those protests on democracy in Eastern Europe ...
(Greta Interviews Kashtus Lashkevich)
GVS: What is the situation now in Minsk?
KL: Well, the situation is quite tense.
GVS: Does President Lukashenko give any indication that he would leave power?
KL: Not at all. It's obvious at the moment that he's not going to leave. As he said you need to kill me, in order to take my place.
GVS: Are news organizations, free to write about what's going on in Minsk?
KL: News media and journalists and bloggers are under very strict control pressure from the authorities, more than 70 websites including radio free Europe, other serious blogs, at the moment, are, worried, I think twenty bloggers were detained and arrested, even before the election, took place, including Sergei Sokolowski who was one of the most popular bloggers in Belarus - the one who wanted to to run for the presidency, so it's,it's very tough conditions for journalists to work in Belarus at the moment.
GVS: I've read that the protesters are carrying a red and white banner that this is an old flag of Belarus, what's the significance of that?
KL: For many years it was literally banned in Belarus. After Lushenko he changed the state symbols, he brought back the big transformed Soviet flag, and called the farm so it's a symbol of new democratic Belarus, many people it’s the symbol for free independence society.
GVS: Are there counter protesters or are there followers who want him to stay because they sense that, that he has strong support?
KL: It actually doesn't look like it is at the moment. But it's very hard to see what's what's the percentage of people who really support Lukashenko. At this very moment,
GVS: in terms of the whole protests, have they been peaceful? Were they violent?
KL: It's absolutely a peaceful protest it's it's an example for many other I think most European countries how to protest against the authoritarian regime could be, could be organized and done.
GVS: Do you see any influence or any suggestion that Russia is the least bit involved in this, or Putin or are they hands off?
KL: Well first of all, Putin was the first foreign leader who recognized the elections. Russian Foreign Ministry made a number of statements openly supported Lukashenko blaming some foreign countries for breaking up the opposition.
We also saw, like, real facts on the ground like Russia Today, the state run media propaganda company, they sent their workers to replace several hundred Belarus state workers who went on strike against rigged elections and oppressions against peaceful protesters so we see Russian journalists, working on Belarusian TV now, spreading this Lukashenko propaganda here so yeah there is Russian involvement definitely.
GVS: I understand that the catalyst was the election on August 9, and then the allegation is that it was rigged. Prior to that time, was there dissent in the country and this was just brewing this just waiting to happen this protest and this uprising against President Lukashenko?
KL: Well, I think the other one very important reason was the coronavirus pandemic, negligence by Lushashenko himself, the way he treated people infected with this virus. There was no official lockdown in Belarus.
He made people very angry because of his actions and the state medical minister also was absolutely unprepared to this pandemic, people didn't have enough masks and protective mask to buy other stuff like these.
(Greta)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the U.S. backs an independent international investigation of the election in Belarus.
Europe is imposing sanctions on Belarus officials. Otherwise, the options are limited.
VOA’s Europe correspondent Henry Ridgwell has more.
(Report By Henry Ridgwell)
The threat of further violence looms over Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko has told security services to clamp down on ongoing opposition protests – which have been building across the country since the August 9 presidential election.
Europe offered its first policy response.
((Charles Michel, European Council President))
“We stand firmly behind the right of the Belarusian people to determine their own fate, and the EU will impose shortly sanctions on a substantial number of individuals responsible for violence, repression and election fraud.”
((NARRATOR)
Yet in reality, Europe has little leverage, according to analyst Mark Galeotti.
((Mark Galeotti, Analyst, Mayak Intelligence))
“Europe has neglected Belarus for so long that we have very, very few levers. We were precisely because we wanted to encourage Lukashenko’s flirtation with us and therefore his challenging of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Moscow, we were prepared to a considerable extent to turn a blind eye to the fact that we had this brutal and ugly dictatorship within Europe. And that leaves us now with very few options.”
((NARRATOR))
Forefront in European minds is the risk of repeating events of 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine following the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych.
((Jonathan Eyal, Royal United Services Institute))
“There is a dilemma about how much to push the process through without risking a Ukraine-style new confrontation with Russia.”
((NARRATOR))
So, Europe must tread carefully, says Galeotti.
((Mark Galeotti, Analyst, Mayak Intelligence))
“The worst possible case would be if they made it look as if somehow the European Union was trying to woo Belarus and bring it into its camp. Because that might trigger a disproportionate response from Moscow. So, at the moment I think actually the European Union in a way has it right precisely by sticking to essentially symbolic gestures.”
((NAT SOUND OF TSIKHANOUSKAYA))
((NARRATOR))
Belarus’ main opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania after the election. She has implored Europe to offer political support.
((Mark Galeotti, Mayak Intelligence))
“When there is a new government – and let’s face it, Lukashenko may not fall this week, or this month but he is going to fall now, I think the end of his regime is now inevitable. Europe should be ready to provide whatever assistance it can when that happens.”
((NARRATOR))
Analysts say a continuation of the violent government crackdown on the protests in Belarus would likely intensify opposition demands for a more powerful response from the West.
Henry Ridgwell, for VOA News, London.
(Greta)
The unrest and the political upheavals in Belarus and in Mali are being closely monitored by foreign policy analysts.
Among them Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group.
I spoke to him about the geopolitical risks in both countries.
(Greta interview - Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group)
GVS: How do you describe what's going on in Belarus?
IB: The people of Belarus are out in force. And these are unprecedented in terms of the numbers of people in demonstrations, but there's also clearly the military continues to support the President and the potential for this to get very dangerous very fast is real.
This is a government that completely understands that they do not have the support of the people and therefore they're willing to use force. They've shut down the internet. they've they've got they've arrested some members of the opposition.
GVS: How is it that Lukashenko has managed to last 26 years and then now this has come to a head.
IB: Well, he's not incompetent. He understands how to leverage power. The opposition has not had very strong individual members to lead it. And when they have they've been, they've been bullied and they've been repressed. So they haven't been able to develop a very strong opposition movement or parties. He has mostly control of the media. And indeed, I wouldn't in any way, try to predict that Lukashenko is going to be out. His ability to repress this still successfully is very real. But I don't think that he can maintain power easily. I think it will require violence, if that's the direction that we go.
GVS: What is Putin thinking? And what's he going to do, do you think?
IB: So if you're Putin, this annoys you a lot, because he doesn't think Lukashenko is particularly effective. They haven't had great relations personally. But if Russia intervenes and supports this government, the Russians are going to be on the wrong side of the Belarusian people. They don't want that at all. So what Putin has done so far is he's yelled at the international community, made it clear that he will not tolerate any intervention from the Germans from the French and the Europeans are much more willing to get engaged than the Americans are at this point. And he is he has been willing to say that there that he that he'll intervene if NATO gets involved.
GVS: If you were advising the president of the United States, what would you tell him strategically the US should do or not do about this?
IB: Well, I accept that the policies that we've engaged in are about right. I mean, sanctions on Belarusian officials that are involved in all of this, that feels fine to me. But where Trump really does fall down, is he doesn't really care that much about human rights, and he doesn't coordinate multilaterally with American allies. So even though Trump policies on Belarus have been pretty on target, he's not talked at all about it. I would like Trump on the phone or any American president with the German Chancellor with the French president, you know, coordinating a united front in condemning the stolen elections unfree unfair in Belarus.
GVS: OK,let me turn now to West Africa Mali where they have a military coup. What what is going on there and why now?
IB: Well, let's first recognize that Mali is one of the poorest countries in Africa, the poorest continent in the world. It's incredibly young, the average population age is like 16 right now, it's also the most vulnerable to climate change, extreme temperature conditions, food, availability, all of that. So I mean, even before you had major challenges with this government in Mali, everything that could be going wrong for them is going wrong, then you've got major problems with Islamic militants, not surprising this part of the world when it's really poor, when it's really uneducated, that's a ripe ground for Islamic terrorism, Islamic extremism to take hold. Now, this president Keita was actually quite popular when he was first voted into power almost a decade ago. But he was reelected two years ago. And that didn't go well. There were a lot of allegations of corruption and also election fraud. It got a lot worse. And this crisis that you're seeing right now started a few months ago back in March, because there was a parliamentary election and the opposition won big. But then Mali’s Constitutional Court actually overturned part of the election results. And they gave a bunch of seats to allies of President Keita. And that is what led to major demonstrations very similar to Belarus in this regard. Right? It was the election that was stolen, that finally got the people to say, I won't take this anymore. That brought thousands of Maliains onto the streets. It led to violence. A lot of people were killed.
GVS: Is the people, the military who are leading the coup say that there will be an election - is there any reason for the people of Mali to sort of have faith in that as election likely to be sooner or rather later? What sort of the prediction on that?
IB: I mean, typically, the poorest countries, Sub Saharan Africa, you have lots of governments that do get overturned by military coups. And if the if those governments end up shifting, it's because large numbers of members of the military decide to shift along with them. What's interesting is this one cleric who's called called the imam of the people Mahmoud Decaux. And the opposition does support him, he seems to be the only figure that's capable of really unifying the country outside of the military. And, you know, he has now said that he's not going to be a part of politics after this military coup. But he still has an enormous amount of influence behind the scenes
(Greta)
That is all the time we have.
Thank you to Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group.
And thanks to Kashtus Lashkevich and Salem Solomon for being with us.
Visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
######
Political turmoil …
and street protests …
try to topple two presidents …
in very different countries.
In West Africa...
a military coup in Mali …
has led to chaos ...
regional uncertainty …
and the resignation …
of the country’s president …
And in Eastern Europe ...
Belarus’ president of …
26 years …
Clinging to power …
as hundreds of thousands …
(Ian Bremmer)
“the potential for this to get very dangerous very fast is real.”
Democracy being tested …
in Africa and Europe …
on Plugged In …
“Unrest in Mali and Belarus”
(Greta Van Susteren)
Hello and welcome to Plugged In.
I’m Greta Van Susteren reporting from Washington DC.
This week we examine the political unrest now unfolding in two nations: Mali and Belarus.
Both involve questions over the outcome of elections that kept their current presidents in power.
In Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko wore riot gear and carried a rifle in defiance of tens of thousands of people who for weeks have been on the march – disputing the results of its August 9th election.
Thousands of kilometers to the south Mali’s two-term president resigned under the duress of a military coup.
For years, the West African nation has suffered from conflict and instability.
(Post Coup Instability by Mariama Diallo)
((NARRATOR))
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, or IBK as he’s known, had been in power since 2013. He said he had no choice but step down.
((Ibrahim Boubacar Keita – Mali President (in French) ))
“For seven years I had the happiness and the joy of trying to redress this country through my best efforts.”
((NARRATOR))
In a statement carried overnight on state TV, the soldiers behind Tuesday's military coup identified themselves as the National Committee for the Salvation of the People led by Colonel-Major Ismael Wagué.
((Colonel-Major Ismael Wagué, Spokesman, National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNPS) (in French) ))
"Mali descends into chaos day by day, anarchy and insecurity because of the fault of the people in charge of its destiny. Real democracy doesn't go with complacency.”
((NARRATOR))
Demonstrators had demanded Keita’s resignation during frequent anti-government protests that began in early June.
Gyude Moore is a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington. Moore served as deputy chief of staff to former Liberian president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.
((W. Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development))
“When the protests first started, they were really about increasing salaries of teachers and doctors and as the protests continued without a response from the government, the demand of the protests expanded, then it included the failed parliamentary elections // There was a perception that there were deep corruption within his administration and a significant amount of nepotism.”
((NARRATOR))
Jo Scheuer, Mali resident representative for the U.N. Development Program (UNDP) told VOA from Bamako that while there’s no justification for a coup, it’s important to note that underlying issues go back many years.
((Jo Scheuer, Mali Resident Representative, UNDP))
“The conflict in the country that goes back in terms of decades of unrealized development opportunities and grievances people have in terms of access to basic services, a lack of rule of law and so on. You have the events following the Arab spring, the coup in 2012 in Mali, the ensuing establishment of international terrorists groups in the country and in the sub-region and of course the miscontent around the latest parliamentary elections that are seen as unfair. On top of that with the security situation with a number of massacres the past 18 months.”
((NARRATOR))
The coup has been strongly condemned by the international community, including the African Union, the West African bloc ECOWAS and the United Nations, which has peacekeeping troops in the country.
Instability in Mali is even more concerning given the number of elections coming up in West Africa, says Moore.
((W. Gyude Moore, senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development))
“Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ghana. So we have 5 elections coming up. Two of those elections will present issues. In Cote D’ivoire and in Guinea, we have presidents who are going for a third term and those are already beginning to raise questions, so for ECOWAS the stability of the region is really, really important.”
((NARRATION))
Keita was democratically elected in 2013 and was serving a second term when he was ousted.
MARIAMA DIALLO, VOA NEWS.
(Greta)
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was first elected president by a landslide in Mali’s 2013 election.
He was re-elected to a second five-year term in 2018 on the promise of unifying the fractured country.
But street protests over economic conditions and election fraud added to overall concerns about Mali’s security and any spillover to its neighbors.
Mali is landlocked surrounded by seven countries in Africa’s Sahel region, the semi-arid zone that separates the Saharan desert and the tropical savanna.
It is Africa’s leading cotton producer and fourth in gold production.
The former French colony became independent in 1960.
Mali’s first military coup happened in 1968 and lasted 20 years.
A coup in 2012 opened the door for Islamic militants to gain a foothold in northern Mali.
12 thousand United Nations troops were sent in 2013 to train Malian soldiers and oversee a transition to civilian rule which happened later that year - the elections that brought IBK to power.
(Greta)
The United States has acknowledged that the leader of the military coup participated in training exercises with the U.S. Africa Command.
A spokesperson condemned the mutiny telling VOA that it is “inconsistent with the legitimate role of the military in free societies and everything that is taught in the U.S. military and its training.”
The U.S. has stopped its training and support for Mali military forces and is looking into the situation.
VOA’s Salem Solomon covers this story in our Africa Division.
We talked about the current situation and what’s next.
(Greta Interview - Salem Solomon)
GVS: Salem, I know you don't have a crystal ball but can you give me some of your thoughts on where this mutiny or this coup in Mali is leading?
SS: So, as of today you know the regional bloc that was supposed to be negotiating a transition to civilian leadership, just left. They were said to have a 90 minutes meeting and then the meeting ended in 20 minutes as you've seen in other reports, but the latest news is that a mediation team and the regional bloc of the Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS met with the junta leaders and failed, some sort of agreement to try to try to transfer power back to civilian leadership and the team was led by a former president Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan. The group of military leaders calling themselves the National Committee for the salvation of people who said that they want a three year transition, they changed it to two but it's all about the timeline is not really that shaky but unacceptable to most international community, and in fact for policy the African Union suspended Mali’s membership and the United States halted some military aid.
GVS: Do the Coup leaders care that they've been condemned like by other nations for the non-democratic change of power, does it even matter to them, are there any consequences?
SS: The last two years have been the deadliest, the deadliest on the record for extremist attacks in the Sahel. And regions in Mali continues the region as a whole continues to be very lawless and very volatile for the region and amongst political development as you've seen in Arab Spring for instance around 2011, popular uprisings tend to spread so quickly, especially in the age of social media, and they're hotly contested always. Elections come up. This year across West Africa Ivory Coast is coming up, Guinea is coming up Burkina Faso is coming up so they're also nervous about the instability leaking to their borders. So across West Africa, there is varying levels of discontent among young people with widespread unemployment and political leadership that's not meeting their needs and, you know, lack of representation.
GVS: So there's a national security issue. This is a two-part question what is what's the economic condition of Mali? And secondly, what is sort of what is the economic impact on those neighboring nations of Mali? I've just stated the national security considerations but other economic as well.
SS: Yes, I mean, with, you know, this kind of instability, people could flood into neighboring countries, arms can be flooded into these countries because of instability attacks like, you know, rebel insurgencies coming in and attacking, razing village as we've seen. And in Mali there's a very concerning issue of inter-communal violence, even deadlier than terrorist insurgencies that we've seen in the past years. We're seeing about hundreds of people being killed villagers completely erased from existence. And so, this is happening in the background as political leadership of what people are saying is failing. And so for the region, obviously, when refugees, or when people seek refuge in other countries, they add into economic burden to other countries.
(Greta)
Turning to Belarus now where protestors have been on the march in the capital of Minsk, they are expressing their outrage over the results of an election that has propelled the country’s president Alexander Lukashenko to an unprecedented sixth term in office.
The opposition claims the election was rigged. Belarusian authorities quickly initiated a military crackdown and this week confirmed the arrests of two leading opposition activists.
VOA’s Charles Maynes has more from Moscow.
(Election Scandal by Charles Maynes)
((NARRATOR))
With all precincts counted, President Alexander Lukashenko received nearly 80 percent of the vote.
The win extends Lukashenko’s 26-year hold on power for another sixth term…with the Belarusian leader issuing a warning to those who would ruin his victory party.
((Alexander Lukashenkom, President of Belarus))
"Follow the law and then all these conversations about repressions will disappear.”
((NARRATOR))
Legitimacy is another issue.
Huge crowds in opposition to Lukashenko massed in the capital Minsk and other cities…clashing with interior ministry troops.
Demonstrators say this was an election neither free nor fair. Western powers agree.
After key rivals were prevented from participating, candidates’ wives stepped in.
A star emerged in Svetlana Tikhanovskaya…who only entered the race after her husband, a popular political blogger, was arrested.
But despite attracting tens of thousands to rallies across the country, results showed Tikhanovskaya with less than ten percent of the vote.
((Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Candidate for President))
"We don't agree with the results. We have absolutely the opposite information.”
((NARRATOR))
It’s evidence of a rigged game, say would-be candidates ousted from the race…now in united opposition against Lukashenko.
((Valery Tsepkalo, Unregistered Presidential Candidate (male in English))
“We don’t want to go out onto the streets. We don’t want to go and protest. But he has left us with no choice.”
((NARRATOR))
The election took place in the wake of the coronavirus…a global pandemic the Belarusian leader dismissed as mass hysteria…
As the infection count rose, civil society stepped in to equip hospitals and doctors. It’s a do-it-yourself approach activists say has now transformed Belarusian politics.
((Andrej Stryzhak, Organizer #ByCovid19))
“Belarusians are not the same people they were before COVID. And we see this activeness not only in civil society but among regular people. Changes are already happening starting with the way people think.”
((NARRATOR))
Lukashenko has faced challenges before…and come out on top.
But Lukashenko’s opponents say — either way — they’re witnessing the birth of a new Belarus.
Charles Maynes for VOA News, Moscow.
(Greta)
Lukashenko is often called Europe’s last dictator. It is a title he relishes.
Video was recently circulated of Lukashenko surveying the protests in a helicopter and then exiting the aircraft holding a rifle.
He has stayed in power by making Belarus a buffer to the powerful forces bordering the country.
Belarus occupies precious geo-political space. Europe’s democracies …
to the west and Russia to the east.
In 1918 Poland and the Soviet Union fought over the landlocked country.
And Belarus was occupied by the Nazis during World War II.
When the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine exploded in 1986, 70 percent of the radioactive fallout made its way to Belarus.
In 1991 five months before the Soviet Union dissolved Belarus declared its independence.
In 1994 Alexander Lukashenko became its first democratically elected president.
26 years later he is still in power.
Lukashenko declared himself the winner of the August 9th Belarus presidential election - a claim disputed by opposition party candidates.
More than 7,000 people have reportedly been arrested and hundreds more injured since the election.
(Greta)
Despite the crackdown the protests have grown in size and support.
When an estimated 200-thousand people were protesting in the capital Minsk, 50-thousand Lithuanians joined hands in a human chain from their capital of Vilnius to the border of Belarus.
Kashtus Lashkevich is managing editor for the Belarus Service of Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty.
They are part of the US Agency for Global Media which also oversees Voice of America.
I spoke with Mr. Lashkevich about the impact of those protests on democracy in Eastern Europe ...
(Greta Interviews Kashtus Lashkevich)
GVS: What is the situation now in Minsk?
KL: Well, the situation is quite tense.
GVS: Does President Lukashenko give any indication that he would leave power?
KL: Not at all. It's obvious at the moment that he's not going to leave. As he said you need to kill me, in order to take my place.
GVS: Are news organizations, free to write about what's going on in Minsk?
KL: News media and journalists and bloggers are under very strict control pressure from the authorities, more than 70 websites including radio free Europe, other serious blogs, at the moment, are, worried, I think twenty bloggers were detained and arrested, even before the election, took place, including Sergei Sokolowski who was one of the most popular bloggers in Belarus - the one who wanted to to run for the presidency, so it's,it's very tough conditions for journalists to work in Belarus at the moment.
GVS: I've read that the protesters are carrying a red and white banner that this is an old flag of Belarus, what's the significance of that?
KL: For many years it was literally banned in Belarus. After Lushenko he changed the state symbols, he brought back the big transformed Soviet flag, and called the farm so it's a symbol of new democratic Belarus, many people it’s the symbol for free independence society.
GVS: Are there counter protesters or are there followers who want him to stay because they sense that, that he has strong support?
KL: It actually doesn't look like it is at the moment. But it's very hard to see what's what's the percentage of people who really support Lukashenko. At this very moment,
GVS: in terms of the whole protests, have they been peaceful? Were they violent?
KL: It's absolutely a peaceful protest it's it's an example for many other I think most European countries how to protest against the authoritarian regime could be, could be organized and done.
GVS: Do you see any influence or any suggestion that Russia is the least bit involved in this, or Putin or are they hands off?
KL: Well first of all, Putin was the first foreign leader who recognized the elections. Russian Foreign Ministry made a number of statements openly supported Lukashenko blaming some foreign countries for breaking up the opposition.
We also saw, like, real facts on the ground like Russia Today, the state run media propaganda company, they sent their workers to replace several hundred Belarus state workers who went on strike against rigged elections and oppressions against peaceful protesters so we see Russian journalists, working on Belarusian TV now, spreading this Lukashenko propaganda here so yeah there is Russian involvement definitely.
GVS: I understand that the catalyst was the election on August 9, and then the allegation is that it was rigged. Prior to that time, was there dissent in the country and this was just brewing this just waiting to happen this protest and this uprising against President Lukashenko?
KL: Well, I think the other one very important reason was the coronavirus pandemic, negligence by Lushashenko himself, the way he treated people infected with this virus. There was no official lockdown in Belarus.
He made people very angry because of his actions and the state medical minister also was absolutely unprepared to this pandemic, people didn't have enough masks and protective mask to buy other stuff like these.
(Greta)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the U.S. backs an independent international investigation of the election in Belarus.
Europe is imposing sanctions on Belarus officials. Otherwise, the options are limited.
VOA’s Europe correspondent Henry Ridgwell has more.
(Report By Henry Ridgwell)
The threat of further violence looms over Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko has told security services to clamp down on ongoing opposition protests – which have been building across the country since the August 9 presidential election.
Europe offered its first policy response.
((Charles Michel, European Council President))
“We stand firmly behind the right of the Belarusian people to determine their own fate, and the EU will impose shortly sanctions on a substantial number of individuals responsible for violence, repression and election fraud.”
((NARRATOR)
Yet in reality, Europe has little leverage, according to analyst Mark Galeotti.
((Mark Galeotti, Analyst, Mayak Intelligence))
“Europe has neglected Belarus for so long that we have very, very few levers. We were precisely because we wanted to encourage Lukashenko’s flirtation with us and therefore his challenging of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Moscow, we were prepared to a considerable extent to turn a blind eye to the fact that we had this brutal and ugly dictatorship within Europe. And that leaves us now with very few options.”
((NARRATOR))
Forefront in European minds is the risk of repeating events of 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine following the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych.
((Jonathan Eyal, Royal United Services Institute))
“There is a dilemma about how much to push the process through without risking a Ukraine-style new confrontation with Russia.”
((NARRATOR))
So, Europe must tread carefully, says Galeotti.
((Mark Galeotti, Analyst, Mayak Intelligence))
“The worst possible case would be if they made it look as if somehow the European Union was trying to woo Belarus and bring it into its camp. Because that might trigger a disproportionate response from Moscow. So, at the moment I think actually the European Union in a way has it right precisely by sticking to essentially symbolic gestures.”
((NAT SOUND OF TSIKHANOUSKAYA))
((NARRATOR))
Belarus’ main opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania after the election. She has implored Europe to offer political support.
((Mark Galeotti, Mayak Intelligence))
“When there is a new government – and let’s face it, Lukashenko may not fall this week, or this month but he is going to fall now, I think the end of his regime is now inevitable. Europe should be ready to provide whatever assistance it can when that happens.”
((NARRATOR))
Analysts say a continuation of the violent government crackdown on the protests in Belarus would likely intensify opposition demands for a more powerful response from the West.
Henry Ridgwell, for VOA News, London.
(Greta)
The unrest and the political upheavals in Belarus and in Mali are being closely monitored by foreign policy analysts.
Among them Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group.
I spoke to him about the geopolitical risks in both countries.
(Greta interview - Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group)
GVS: How do you describe what's going on in Belarus?
IB: The people of Belarus are out in force. And these are unprecedented in terms of the numbers of people in demonstrations, but there's also clearly the military continues to support the President and the potential for this to get very dangerous very fast is real.
This is a government that completely understands that they do not have the support of the people and therefore they're willing to use force. They've shut down the internet. they've they've got they've arrested some members of the opposition.
GVS: How is it that Lukashenko has managed to last 26 years and then now this has come to a head.
IB: Well, he's not incompetent. He understands how to leverage power. The opposition has not had very strong individual members to lead it. And when they have they've been, they've been bullied and they've been repressed. So they haven't been able to develop a very strong opposition movement or parties. He has mostly control of the media. And indeed, I wouldn't in any way, try to predict that Lukashenko is going to be out. His ability to repress this still successfully is very real. But I don't think that he can maintain power easily. I think it will require violence, if that's the direction that we go.
GVS: What is Putin thinking? And what's he going to do, do you think?
IB: So if you're Putin, this annoys you a lot, because he doesn't think Lukashenko is particularly effective. They haven't had great relations personally. But if Russia intervenes and supports this government, the Russians are going to be on the wrong side of the Belarusian people. They don't want that at all. So what Putin has done so far is he's yelled at the international community, made it clear that he will not tolerate any intervention from the Germans from the French and the Europeans are much more willing to get engaged than the Americans are at this point. And he is he has been willing to say that there that he that he'll intervene if NATO gets involved.
GVS: If you were advising the president of the United States, what would you tell him strategically the US should do or not do about this?
IB: Well, I accept that the policies that we've engaged in are about right. I mean, sanctions on Belarusian officials that are involved in all of this, that feels fine to me. But where Trump really does fall down, is he doesn't really care that much about human rights, and he doesn't coordinate multilaterally with American allies. So even though Trump policies on Belarus have been pretty on target, he's not talked at all about it. I would like Trump on the phone or any American president with the German Chancellor with the French president, you know, coordinating a united front in condemning the stolen elections unfree unfair in Belarus.
GVS: OK,let me turn now to West Africa Mali where they have a military coup. What what is going on there and why now?
IB: Well, let's first recognize that Mali is one of the poorest countries in Africa, the poorest continent in the world. It's incredibly young, the average population age is like 16 right now, it's also the most vulnerable to climate change, extreme temperature conditions, food, availability, all of that. So I mean, even before you had major challenges with this government in Mali, everything that could be going wrong for them is going wrong, then you've got major problems with Islamic militants, not surprising this part of the world when it's really poor, when it's really uneducated, that's a ripe ground for Islamic terrorism, Islamic extremism to take hold. Now, this president Keita was actually quite popular when he was first voted into power almost a decade ago. But he was reelected two years ago. And that didn't go well. There were a lot of allegations of corruption and also election fraud. It got a lot worse. And this crisis that you're seeing right now started a few months ago back in March, because there was a parliamentary election and the opposition won big. But then Mali’s Constitutional Court actually overturned part of the election results. And they gave a bunch of seats to allies of President Keita. And that is what led to major demonstrations very similar to Belarus in this regard. Right? It was the election that was stolen, that finally got the people to say, I won't take this anymore. That brought thousands of Maliains onto the streets. It led to violence. A lot of people were killed.
GVS: Is the people, the military who are leading the coup say that there will be an election - is there any reason for the people of Mali to sort of have faith in that as election likely to be sooner or rather later? What sort of the prediction on that?
IB: I mean, typically, the poorest countries, Sub Saharan Africa, you have lots of governments that do get overturned by military coups. And if the if those governments end up shifting, it's because large numbers of members of the military decide to shift along with them. What's interesting is this one cleric who's called called the imam of the people Mahmoud Decaux. And the opposition does support him, he seems to be the only figure that's capable of really unifying the country outside of the military. And, you know, he has now said that he's not going to be a part of politics after this military coup. But he still has an enormous amount of influence behind the scenes
(Greta)
That is all the time we have.
Thank you to Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group.
And thanks to Kashtus Lashkevich and Salem Solomon for being with us.
Visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
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