On Plugged In…
Amid accusations …
of spying …
and intellectual …
property theft …
the United States …
orders China …
to shut down its consulate …
in Houston, Texas:
(Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State)
“When it comes to the CCP, I say we must distrust and verify.”
The chief U.S. diplomat …
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo …
calls on the nations of the world …
to work together …
to change China’s behavior.
(Bonnie Glaser, CSIS)
“Economic sanctions to some extent may make a difference, that’s only one tool.”
From intellectual property theft …
and coronavirus …
to Hong Kong …
and the South China Sea …
the sparking flash points …
Between Washington and Beijing.
On Plugged In…
US China...
Escalating Tensions.
(Greta)
Hello and welcome to Plugged In…
I’m Greta Van Susteren, reporting from my home in Washington DC.
It may be easy to forget that just six months ago the United States and China signed a trade deal.
Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in China.
Beijing imposed a new security law on Hong Kong.
And on July 22nd the U.S. ordered China to shut down its consulate in Houston, Texas - claiming it was being used to spy on and steal from the United States.
China immediately responded by ordering the U.S. to shut down its consulate in Chengdu.
To put into perspective, It has been 48 years since U.S. President Richard Nixon re-established U.S. relations with China.
With Nixon’s Presidential Library as a backdrop, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outlined the Trump Administration’s issues with China.
We begin with VOA’s Elizabeth Lee in Los Angeles.
(Hard-Line Stance On China by Elizabeth Lee)
At the Nixon Library in Southern California, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presents the Trump administration’s hardline stance on China.
((Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State))
“The old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won't get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it. President Trump has made very clear, we need a strategy that protects the American economy and indeed our way of life. The free world must triumph over this new tyranny.”
((NARRATOR))
Pompeo says the old way of engaging with China resulted in self-censorship among U.S. businesses and in Hollywood, while China continued with repression on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. He says China is seeking global dominance and has become increasingly authoritarian at home and hostile to freedom abroad. Pompeo’s speech comes the same week the U.S. ordered the Chinese Consulate in Houston to close within 72 hours – calling it a hub of spying and intellectual property theft.
((Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson))
"This is entirely malicious slander. This demolishes the bridge of friendship between Chinese and Americans."
((Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State))
“The only way to truly change Communist China is to act not on the basis of what Chinese leaders say, but how they behave. And you can see American policy responding to this conclusion. President (Ronald) Reagan said that he drove with the Soviet Union on the basis of trust but verify. When it comes to the CCP, I say we must distrust and verify.”
((NARRATOR))
It is not surprising that the U.S. is taking a tougher approach on China, says the Rand Corporation’s China expert, Timothy Heath.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“There is a long-term trend that's been going on since President Bush, George (W.) Bush, junior, of a gradual hardening of America's position regarding China. I think ultimately that derives from the reality that the gap in national power is narrowing, that there is a real competition going on.”
((NARRATOR))
Pompeo is asking other nations to also hold China accountable, but it may not be that simple.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“A lot of countries are dependent or at least rely a lot on trade with China. And so, it's going to be, it's not going to be easy for many countries in the world to pick a side and join the U.S. in some of it's harder-line policies.”
((NARRATOR))
Heath says there is bipartisan support for a harder line on China, especially on specific issues such as intellectual property theft and China’s approach to Hong Kong, which may be an indicator as to what will happen after the November presidential elections.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“Presidential candidate Joe Biden has voiced a very tough line on China, echoing again, quite a bit of bipartisan concern about China. So, I anticipate regardless of who wins the election, there will be a lot of what you see from the Trump administration will continue.”
((NARRATOR))
The question remains to be seen whether this approach will be more successful than what was tried with other administrations.
Elizabeth Lee, VOA News, Los Angeles.
(Cindy Saine Reports)
China swiftly retaliated against the U.S., closing the American consulate in the city of Chengdu, which covers the autonomous region of Tibet.
The move came after the U.S. demanded China close its consulate in Houston.
After a number of friendly meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Xinping, experts say the consulate closures and Pompeo’s speech signal a shift from civil engagement toward open hostility.
((Larry Diamond, Stanford University))
“U.S. policy is response to really what China has been doing, which is an increasingly bullying, belligerent and hostile posture toward its neighbors in the region and toward democratic values and interests in the world.”
Other experts note the tougher tone towards China coincides with Trump’s re-election campaign.
((Douglas Paal, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace))
“I think that the speech was intended to provoke a response from China, in order to intensify political feeling in the US of hostility toward China and to help rescue President Trump's election campaign before November.
((NARRATOR))
With tensions over China’s security crackdown on Hong Kong and its early handling of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, some experts say the U.S. pushback happening now was inevitable.
((Clyde Prestowitz, Economic Strategy Institute))
“And I think, you know, the friction was inevitable because if we were going to shift our thinking and policy about China, you know, then clearly some of the nice chummy old things will have to be changed.”
((NARRATOR))
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman announced the Chengdu closure and blamed the U.S. for the current state of U.S.-China relations.
Cindy Saine, VOA News, Washington.
(Greta)
Perhaps lost amid the consulate closures: Four members of China’s People’s Liberation Army were arrested in the United States for allegedly lying about their military status when applying for visas to conduct research.
To help us better understand the U.S.-China relationship we turned to Bonnie Glaser.
She is a Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific security issues .at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
I asked her what does China want?
(Greta Interview with Bonnie Glaser)
BG: China certainly wants to defend its own interest. It starts with its territorial and sovereignty disputes in its region with countries like Japan and with India and its claims over Taiwan. China also wants to defend and protect its own autocratic system. And that may mean weakening democracy around the world and promoting authoritarian values. China has its own set of course socialist values, that it is pushing around the world. But China doesn't want interference certainly in its own internal affairs. but it wants to shape, I think, an international environment that is more favorable to Chinese interests. And Xi Jinping I think has more confidence than prior Chinese leaders that he can do that. I think he thinks that the world is now moving in the direction of China's advantage and interest, and Xi Jinping is more, he is less risk-averse and more willing to have friction with other countries than any of his predecessors were.
GVS: What leverage does the US have? I mean, what can the US do just to get China to react in a particular way, whether it's to withdraw any sort of it's any sort of aggression or positioning in the South China Sea, or I mean where is the leverage the US has on China?
BG: Well first I would say that the ability of the US to influence Chinese policies are greater on issues that do not involve sovereignty, that is, Hong Kong, or Xinjiang. Hong Kong and Xinjiang of course are both already parts of the People's Republic of China, it's more difficult to influence Chinese behavior on on those kinds of matters. But I think in other areas that the US has more potential, even though the South China Sea is a sovereignty issue, I think that the United States has some potential to get China to back away from its intimidation and harassment of companies, as well as other fishermen and countries that are trying to drill for energy in their rightful waters where they have exclusive rights over oil and gas in their Exclusive Economic Zones. But the way that the United States has to do that cannot be creating lateral measures, it really must be through working with like-minded countries. Economic sanctions to some extent, may make a difference that's only one tool. But I think that forging a strong coalition of countries to push back against Chinese behavior on specific issues is the only hope that the United States has of changing Chinese behavior.
GVS: What role does China have or how much influence does it have on W.H.O.?
BG: China's influence on the World Health Organization has been pretty significant, we have seen that during the pandemic. And it is not a function of the amount of money that China gives to the organization, China actually gives far less money to the WHO than the United States does. But the influence is greater than that because the World Health Organization wants to have access to China, so that if there is a health crisis, they can send a delegation, for example, on the ground in China to do interviews. If the WHO doesn't have good relations with China it's not going to get that out,
GVS:-- But isn't it. Isn't that a condition of membership that you provide access. I would think that would be sort of a willing member, and the fact that China gives I think less than 1% of the whole budget of World Health Organization, I would think would make their influence de minimus but it's not.
BG: Well, as i said i don't think that the financial contribution is the main source of Chinese influence. Yes, you have to be a member to have any influence at all. I think that the United States is wrong to pull out of the World Health Organization, almost irresponsible to do so, while a pandemic is raging around the world. So, there are better ways to try and curtail China's influence over the who, than to just pull out. I think that a lot of countries are concerned about the very heavy influence that China had over the WHO in the very early months of the pandemic. Because we know that China was slow in telling the rest of the world about the potential for human to human transmission.
GVS: It seems to me that that relationship really needs to be explored if you know, if if China wants to be a member of WHO and contribute, it needs to provide rightful information, and also provide access to WHO to go into China when there is a suspicious virus there.
BG: Absolutely. China's responsibilities in the WHO and its obligations, have to be the same as every other member. China should not get any special treatment. It should not be able to influence the head of WHO or any other UN agency. and I think that is a problem and something that the world should be investigated.
GVS: Do you think it would make any difference how China acted vis-a-vis the coronavirus and not revealing it quickly to the rest of the world, had there been a different president than President Trump in office? or was China determined to keep that as quiet as long as it could?
BG: I think the way China reacted to the outbreak of the coronavirus was quite consistent with the way it has acted in the past. Certainly when SARS broke out in 2003, but also episodes in which China has tried to prevent the outside world, or even its own people from knowing what is going on. The first thing that the Chinese, try to do is clamp down the local areas in China if the problem originates someplace, and it in a locality wants to prevent the center in Beijing from really knowing what's going on, so it becomes a problem with domestic communication. And then, even when the central government is informed, sometimes they just want to try and quash this information, prevent it from getting out. So I think this is just very consistent with the way the Chinese Communist Party does business. This is what governance in China really is about. It's not about transparency.
(Greta)
Some might argue relations between the two countries have not been this bad since 1949 when the Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong established the People’s Republic of China.
It took more than 20 years for the first thaw in the frozen relationship. That thaw began in 1971 when China’s ping-pong team invited their American rivals to visit China.
Then the following year 1972, President Nixon went to China.
And then seven years later, then US President Jimmy Carter granted full diplomatic recognition to China.
Since then the U.S.-China relationship has been a difficult balancing act for both past and present American presidents.
In 1982, three years into its new relationship the U.S. and China made a joint announcement in which the U.S. agrees to reduce arms sales to Taiwan.
At the same time President Ronald Reagan privately assured Taiwan
of continued US support.
Two years later in 1984 President Reagan visits China opening the door for the U.S. to start selling military equipment to Beijing.
But in 1989, the US suspended military sales to China. This after the Tiananmen Square massacre when the Chinese government troops
killed hundreds of protestors who were demanding democratic reforms.
Relations would remain frozen until 1992 until President George H.W. Bush met Chinese leader Li Peng.
Then in 2000 President Bill Clinton signs the US-China Relations Act.
That 2000 act paved the way for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization.
Beijing would later lay claim to the disputed territories in the South China Sea and start building military installations on a chain of artificial islands.
And critics began to raise alarms over China’s military intentions.
(Greta)
President Trump’s perspective about China’s responsibility for the coronavirus pandemic has evolved since the first cases began appearing in the US in late January.
(President Donald Trump)
“I think President Xi is working very hard. As you know, I spoke with him recently. He’s working really hard. It’s a tough problem. I think he’s going to do — look, I’ve seen them build hospitals in a short period of time. I really believe he wants to get that done, and he wants to get it done fast.
President Xi loves the people of China. He loves his country. And he’s doing a very good job with a very, very tough situation.”
------
“And I want to say China seems to be making tremendous progress. Their numbers are way down. And if you read Tim Cook of Apple said they’re now at full operation again in China. Their numbers are way down.”
------
“Well, I think our relationship with China is very good. We just did a big trade deal. We’re starting on another trade deal with China, very big one, and we’ve been working very closely. They’ve been talking to our people. We’ve been talking to their people having to do with the virus. Our relationship with China is very good, maybe it’s closer because of what’s happened here.”
------
“Look, we're all on the same team, we’re all on the same team including Dr. Fauci. I have a very good relationship with Dr. Fauci, and we're all in the same team. We wanna get rid of this mess that China sent us.”
-------
“But I said the other night, there’s never been anything where they have so many names. I could give you 19 or 20 names. It’s got all different names. Wuhan..Wuhan was catching on. Coronavirus.. Kung Flu.. yeah Kung Flu.”
-------
“Some people call it the “Chinese flu,” the “China flu.” Right? They call it the “China,” as opposed to… I’ve never seen anything like it.”
-------
“So you look at deaths are way down from this horrible China virus. And it’s a disgrace that it happened. It shouldn’t have happened but it did.”
(Greta)
For a closer look at where we are at this moment in history I spoke with Lynette Ong.
She is a professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
Her current research focuses on geopolitical trends across China and Southeast Asia.
And we talked about how the competition between the U.S. and China is playing out on the global stage.
(Greta interview - Lynette H. Ong)
LO: I think this is fundamentally a question about structural shift in international world order. So you have the rise of China which has a different set of values to the Western liberal order. And the question for the Western world is-- how do we accommodate China's rise given its political system structural values which are very different from us?
But this is also a question about this particular administration in the US, right now. Trump administration and his very hawkish advisors who I think has advised him to take all sorts of positions to provoke Beijing, without really addressing the problems which really should be addressed.
GVS: If I were speaking to, for instance, the president of China, and I were speaking to the, someone not in the Communist Party, just a Chinese person. What is what's their point of view of the United States?
LO: So, if you speak to the Chinese people, you know, what they see and what they hear is being filtered through, is being filtered by censorship by the government. So, so I think you know the closing of two consulates in Chengdu and Houston, is, is really not helping with the rhetoric. I think the sentiment, the broad sentiment in China right now is the US is keen on starting a cold war with China. Because US sees itself as losing competitive edge in a lot of areas, including technology and hence, it wants a bigger fight with Huawei. So this is the US losing competition and hence, finding faults with the United States. That's the broad sentiment in China right now.
GVS: How secure is President Xi? Is he, I know he’s got a long term but how secure is he in power?
LO: Very insecure, also autocrats they are very insecure. Because they do things and no one dares to go up, even to whisper to their ears that they are doing the wrong things, which is why I think recently we see a series of of very, very strange policies, dramatic departure from what China has been doing in the last 40 years.
GVS: Can he do do essentially what he wants to do, vis a vis, for instance, the United States?
LO: yes he has got a lot of power. So, a lot of power has been concentrated and centralized, not only at the central level, but in his hands. I think he is in charge, directly in charge of making a lot of decisions, foreign policy decisions.
GVS: And what happens if the if the Trump administration gets more robust in its treatment of China, I mean we’ve already shut down one consulate, they've shut down the consulate. We've had trade issues. We've got a lot of a lot, there was criticism recently in the South China Sea. We've got Hong Kong, I mean to the extent that the Trump administration keeps stepping up these things against China, what does that do for President Xi and what does that do to China?
LO: I think Xi wants to look strong to his people, I think that's very important to him, because he doesn't know whether people has loyalty towards him. So the way to do it, to acquire loyalty, is to make yourself look strong among the people to shore up nationalism. So the more rhetoric that I think Trump administration ramp up, the more they are going to provoke Beijing and President Xi to go up to do things which are more radical than that before. Which is really against I think what the US is trying to achieve, which is getting China to reform, to become more open, and to become more open in its political and trade system. but the more you try to push it in the wrong way, I think you're trying you're actually helping Xi to concentrate power further.
GVS: if the Trump administration dials it back so to speak, what, what would you predict then?
LO: I think a lot of harm is actually has already been done. If the Trump administration dials things back a little bit, I think we will see easing of tension in the short term. But I think in the medium term, there's a structural issue of the rise of China, that it sees itself has, has paid enough time in biding its time and is now time for it to shine and to show its strength to the rest of of the world. And I think that issue, how do we accommodate China that very fundamental issue has not properly, been addressed. And to address the issue properly, I think we the world really needs the US to take the leadership, broad Alliance, broad stream of alliances across the western world and across Asia to collectively address this problem.
GVS: What's the impact on President Xi of the coronavirus?
LO: The, that's an interesting question. so if I would have this conversation with you six months ago I would say that the government has been hit very badly, there was an uprising, digital uprising at the beginning of January. But now, but I think the regime was also very cleverly, you know, turning things around, able to come up with this, this, this story that it is local government that covered it up and central government has stepped in to become the portraits of as the Savior, with this very strong capacity building hospitals in two weeks, and things like that.
So overall I think it has come up pretty well, come out of this pandemic pretty well at a populist level. but at the elite level, I think people who are astute and who can see really what things are going on, there is a lot of discontent against how the government has actually handled the pandemic.
GVS: What is most important to China, at this point, what does it want?
LO: i think it still wants to, for the last 40 years so much energy has been devoted to growing the economy, making the people middle class. I think it's still wants that, but there's also an increasing desire to assert its political weight or throwing its weight around the world to become an, a big global power. And I think there are signs, emerging signs that that second objective is actually trumping the first. Even at the expense of growing its economy, it's willing to risk a trade a trade war if the second objectives is met.
(GRETA)
The coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the U.S. economy and American society has elevated China even higher on the list of critical election issues facing voters in November’s presidential election.
President Trump points to his hardline stance against Beijing as proof that he would be tougher on China than his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden who calls Trump’s policies inconsistent and ineffective.
VOA’s Brian Padden examines the China policies of both candidates.
(US Politics and China by Brian Padden)
In the past President Trump touted his transactional relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and progress toward a new trade agreement that would increase American agricultural exports.
But Trump has taken a more hardline approach toward Beijing for downplaying the coronavirus outbreak when it first appeared in Wuhan province.
((President Donald Trump))
“What China's unleashed on the world, it's hard to even fathom.”
((NARRATOR))
The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on China for alleged human rights violations against Muslim Uighurs and its crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong.
Advocates for diplomacy worry about Trump’s new hardball strategy.
((Rachel Esplin Odell, Quincy Institute For Responsible Statecraft))
“It's more coherently hostile and confrontational in ways that I think will harm U.S. interests.”
((NARRATOR))
Trump’s hawkish former national security adviser turned critic, John Bolton, has also criticized the president’s “get tough on China policy,” telling VOA it is driven solely by electoral politics.
((John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Adviser))
“I think Trump's relationship with Xi Jinping goes up and down depending on the prospects for election day. And if Trump wins re-election, I think Xi Jinping will be his big buddy once again.”
((NARRATOR))
Trump is now using his hardline China policy to attack his Democratic opponent - former Vice President Joe Biden - as being soft on China.
(President Donald Trump))
“As vice president, Biden opposed tariffs. And he was standing up for China, didn't want to do anything to disrupt the relationship with China.”
((NARRATOR))
As President Barack Obama’s vice president, Biden supported conditional engagement with China on trade and security issues.
((Joe Biden, Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee))
"We do not fear China's rise - we want to see China rise.”
((NARRATOR))
But the Obama administration also tried to contain Chinese aggression by increasing the U.S. military presence in the Pacific and strengthening regional alliances.
Biden has criticized Trump for talking tough but taking weak actions that fail to deter China. Biden says he would impose stronger sanctions on China, but critics say he has no clear alternative strategy.
((Giselle Donnelly, National Security Analyst, American Enterprise Institute))
“It strikes me that he doesn't really have a coherent philosophy of international politics or internal vision, but that he sort of responds, follows the herd, so to speak.”
((NARRATOR))
The two campaigns have also accused each other of having family business ties to Chinese companies, posing possible conflicts of interest. Brian Padden, VOA News Washington.
(Greta)
That is all the time we have.
Thank you for watching.
My thanks to our guests - Bonnie Glaser and Lynette Ong.
For the latest updates visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
###
Amid accusations …
of spying …
and intellectual …
property theft …
the United States …
orders China …
to shut down its consulate …
in Houston, Texas:
(Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State)
“When it comes to the CCP, I say we must distrust and verify.”
The chief U.S. diplomat …
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo …
calls on the nations of the world …
to work together …
to change China’s behavior.
(Bonnie Glaser, CSIS)
“Economic sanctions to some extent may make a difference, that’s only one tool.”
From intellectual property theft …
and coronavirus …
to Hong Kong …
and the South China Sea …
the sparking flash points …
Between Washington and Beijing.
On Plugged In…
US China...
Escalating Tensions.
(Greta)
Hello and welcome to Plugged In…
I’m Greta Van Susteren, reporting from my home in Washington DC.
It may be easy to forget that just six months ago the United States and China signed a trade deal.
Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in China.
Beijing imposed a new security law on Hong Kong.
And on July 22nd the U.S. ordered China to shut down its consulate in Houston, Texas - claiming it was being used to spy on and steal from the United States.
China immediately responded by ordering the U.S. to shut down its consulate in Chengdu.
To put into perspective, It has been 48 years since U.S. President Richard Nixon re-established U.S. relations with China.
With Nixon’s Presidential Library as a backdrop, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outlined the Trump Administration’s issues with China.
We begin with VOA’s Elizabeth Lee in Los Angeles.
(Hard-Line Stance On China by Elizabeth Lee)
At the Nixon Library in Southern California, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presents the Trump administration’s hardline stance on China.
((Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State))
“The old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won't get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it. President Trump has made very clear, we need a strategy that protects the American economy and indeed our way of life. The free world must triumph over this new tyranny.”
((NARRATOR))
Pompeo says the old way of engaging with China resulted in self-censorship among U.S. businesses and in Hollywood, while China continued with repression on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. He says China is seeking global dominance and has become increasingly authoritarian at home and hostile to freedom abroad. Pompeo’s speech comes the same week the U.S. ordered the Chinese Consulate in Houston to close within 72 hours – calling it a hub of spying and intellectual property theft.
((Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson))
"This is entirely malicious slander. This demolishes the bridge of friendship between Chinese and Americans."
((Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State))
“The only way to truly change Communist China is to act not on the basis of what Chinese leaders say, but how they behave. And you can see American policy responding to this conclusion. President (Ronald) Reagan said that he drove with the Soviet Union on the basis of trust but verify. When it comes to the CCP, I say we must distrust and verify.”
((NARRATOR))
It is not surprising that the U.S. is taking a tougher approach on China, says the Rand Corporation’s China expert, Timothy Heath.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“There is a long-term trend that's been going on since President Bush, George (W.) Bush, junior, of a gradual hardening of America's position regarding China. I think ultimately that derives from the reality that the gap in national power is narrowing, that there is a real competition going on.”
((NARRATOR))
Pompeo is asking other nations to also hold China accountable, but it may not be that simple.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“A lot of countries are dependent or at least rely a lot on trade with China. And so, it's going to be, it's not going to be easy for many countries in the world to pick a side and join the U.S. in some of it's harder-line policies.”
((NARRATOR))
Heath says there is bipartisan support for a harder line on China, especially on specific issues such as intellectual property theft and China’s approach to Hong Kong, which may be an indicator as to what will happen after the November presidential elections.
((Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation Senior Researcher))
“Presidential candidate Joe Biden has voiced a very tough line on China, echoing again, quite a bit of bipartisan concern about China. So, I anticipate regardless of who wins the election, there will be a lot of what you see from the Trump administration will continue.”
((NARRATOR))
The question remains to be seen whether this approach will be more successful than what was tried with other administrations.
Elizabeth Lee, VOA News, Los Angeles.
(Cindy Saine Reports)
China swiftly retaliated against the U.S., closing the American consulate in the city of Chengdu, which covers the autonomous region of Tibet.
The move came after the U.S. demanded China close its consulate in Houston.
After a number of friendly meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Xinping, experts say the consulate closures and Pompeo’s speech signal a shift from civil engagement toward open hostility.
((Larry Diamond, Stanford University))
“U.S. policy is response to really what China has been doing, which is an increasingly bullying, belligerent and hostile posture toward its neighbors in the region and toward democratic values and interests in the world.”
Other experts note the tougher tone towards China coincides with Trump’s re-election campaign.
((Douglas Paal, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace))
“I think that the speech was intended to provoke a response from China, in order to intensify political feeling in the US of hostility toward China and to help rescue President Trump's election campaign before November.
((NARRATOR))
With tensions over China’s security crackdown on Hong Kong and its early handling of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, some experts say the U.S. pushback happening now was inevitable.
((Clyde Prestowitz, Economic Strategy Institute))
“And I think, you know, the friction was inevitable because if we were going to shift our thinking and policy about China, you know, then clearly some of the nice chummy old things will have to be changed.”
((NARRATOR))
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman announced the Chengdu closure and blamed the U.S. for the current state of U.S.-China relations.
Cindy Saine, VOA News, Washington.
(Greta)
Perhaps lost amid the consulate closures: Four members of China’s People’s Liberation Army were arrested in the United States for allegedly lying about their military status when applying for visas to conduct research.
To help us better understand the U.S.-China relationship we turned to Bonnie Glaser.
She is a Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific security issues .at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
I asked her what does China want?
(Greta Interview with Bonnie Glaser)
BG: China certainly wants to defend its own interest. It starts with its territorial and sovereignty disputes in its region with countries like Japan and with India and its claims over Taiwan. China also wants to defend and protect its own autocratic system. And that may mean weakening democracy around the world and promoting authoritarian values. China has its own set of course socialist values, that it is pushing around the world. But China doesn't want interference certainly in its own internal affairs. but it wants to shape, I think, an international environment that is more favorable to Chinese interests. And Xi Jinping I think has more confidence than prior Chinese leaders that he can do that. I think he thinks that the world is now moving in the direction of China's advantage and interest, and Xi Jinping is more, he is less risk-averse and more willing to have friction with other countries than any of his predecessors were.
GVS: What leverage does the US have? I mean, what can the US do just to get China to react in a particular way, whether it's to withdraw any sort of it's any sort of aggression or positioning in the South China Sea, or I mean where is the leverage the US has on China?
BG: Well first I would say that the ability of the US to influence Chinese policies are greater on issues that do not involve sovereignty, that is, Hong Kong, or Xinjiang. Hong Kong and Xinjiang of course are both already parts of the People's Republic of China, it's more difficult to influence Chinese behavior on on those kinds of matters. But I think in other areas that the US has more potential, even though the South China Sea is a sovereignty issue, I think that the United States has some potential to get China to back away from its intimidation and harassment of companies, as well as other fishermen and countries that are trying to drill for energy in their rightful waters where they have exclusive rights over oil and gas in their Exclusive Economic Zones. But the way that the United States has to do that cannot be creating lateral measures, it really must be through working with like-minded countries. Economic sanctions to some extent, may make a difference that's only one tool. But I think that forging a strong coalition of countries to push back against Chinese behavior on specific issues is the only hope that the United States has of changing Chinese behavior.
GVS: What role does China have or how much influence does it have on W.H.O.?
BG: China's influence on the World Health Organization has been pretty significant, we have seen that during the pandemic. And it is not a function of the amount of money that China gives to the organization, China actually gives far less money to the WHO than the United States does. But the influence is greater than that because the World Health Organization wants to have access to China, so that if there is a health crisis, they can send a delegation, for example, on the ground in China to do interviews. If the WHO doesn't have good relations with China it's not going to get that out,
GVS:-- But isn't it. Isn't that a condition of membership that you provide access. I would think that would be sort of a willing member, and the fact that China gives I think less than 1% of the whole budget of World Health Organization, I would think would make their influence de minimus but it's not.
BG: Well, as i said i don't think that the financial contribution is the main source of Chinese influence. Yes, you have to be a member to have any influence at all. I think that the United States is wrong to pull out of the World Health Organization, almost irresponsible to do so, while a pandemic is raging around the world. So, there are better ways to try and curtail China's influence over the who, than to just pull out. I think that a lot of countries are concerned about the very heavy influence that China had over the WHO in the very early months of the pandemic. Because we know that China was slow in telling the rest of the world about the potential for human to human transmission.
GVS: It seems to me that that relationship really needs to be explored if you know, if if China wants to be a member of WHO and contribute, it needs to provide rightful information, and also provide access to WHO to go into China when there is a suspicious virus there.
BG: Absolutely. China's responsibilities in the WHO and its obligations, have to be the same as every other member. China should not get any special treatment. It should not be able to influence the head of WHO or any other UN agency. and I think that is a problem and something that the world should be investigated.
GVS: Do you think it would make any difference how China acted vis-a-vis the coronavirus and not revealing it quickly to the rest of the world, had there been a different president than President Trump in office? or was China determined to keep that as quiet as long as it could?
BG: I think the way China reacted to the outbreak of the coronavirus was quite consistent with the way it has acted in the past. Certainly when SARS broke out in 2003, but also episodes in which China has tried to prevent the outside world, or even its own people from knowing what is going on. The first thing that the Chinese, try to do is clamp down the local areas in China if the problem originates someplace, and it in a locality wants to prevent the center in Beijing from really knowing what's going on, so it becomes a problem with domestic communication. And then, even when the central government is informed, sometimes they just want to try and quash this information, prevent it from getting out. So I think this is just very consistent with the way the Chinese Communist Party does business. This is what governance in China really is about. It's not about transparency.
(Greta)
Some might argue relations between the two countries have not been this bad since 1949 when the Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong established the People’s Republic of China.
It took more than 20 years for the first thaw in the frozen relationship. That thaw began in 1971 when China’s ping-pong team invited their American rivals to visit China.
Then the following year 1972, President Nixon went to China.
And then seven years later, then US President Jimmy Carter granted full diplomatic recognition to China.
Since then the U.S.-China relationship has been a difficult balancing act for both past and present American presidents.
In 1982, three years into its new relationship the U.S. and China made a joint announcement in which the U.S. agrees to reduce arms sales to Taiwan.
At the same time President Ronald Reagan privately assured Taiwan
of continued US support.
Two years later in 1984 President Reagan visits China opening the door for the U.S. to start selling military equipment to Beijing.
But in 1989, the US suspended military sales to China. This after the Tiananmen Square massacre when the Chinese government troops
killed hundreds of protestors who were demanding democratic reforms.
Relations would remain frozen until 1992 until President George H.W. Bush met Chinese leader Li Peng.
Then in 2000 President Bill Clinton signs the US-China Relations Act.
That 2000 act paved the way for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization.
Beijing would later lay claim to the disputed territories in the South China Sea and start building military installations on a chain of artificial islands.
And critics began to raise alarms over China’s military intentions.
(Greta)
President Trump’s perspective about China’s responsibility for the coronavirus pandemic has evolved since the first cases began appearing in the US in late January.
(President Donald Trump)
“I think President Xi is working very hard. As you know, I spoke with him recently. He’s working really hard. It’s a tough problem. I think he’s going to do — look, I’ve seen them build hospitals in a short period of time. I really believe he wants to get that done, and he wants to get it done fast.
President Xi loves the people of China. He loves his country. And he’s doing a very good job with a very, very tough situation.”
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“And I want to say China seems to be making tremendous progress. Their numbers are way down. And if you read Tim Cook of Apple said they’re now at full operation again in China. Their numbers are way down.”
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“Well, I think our relationship with China is very good. We just did a big trade deal. We’re starting on another trade deal with China, very big one, and we’ve been working very closely. They’ve been talking to our people. We’ve been talking to their people having to do with the virus. Our relationship with China is very good, maybe it’s closer because of what’s happened here.”
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“Look, we're all on the same team, we’re all on the same team including Dr. Fauci. I have a very good relationship with Dr. Fauci, and we're all in the same team. We wanna get rid of this mess that China sent us.”
-------
“But I said the other night, there’s never been anything where they have so many names. I could give you 19 or 20 names. It’s got all different names. Wuhan..Wuhan was catching on. Coronavirus.. Kung Flu.. yeah Kung Flu.”
-------
“Some people call it the “Chinese flu,” the “China flu.” Right? They call it the “China,” as opposed to… I’ve never seen anything like it.”
-------
“So you look at deaths are way down from this horrible China virus. And it’s a disgrace that it happened. It shouldn’t have happened but it did.”
(Greta)
For a closer look at where we are at this moment in history I spoke with Lynette Ong.
She is a professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
Her current research focuses on geopolitical trends across China and Southeast Asia.
And we talked about how the competition between the U.S. and China is playing out on the global stage.
(Greta interview - Lynette H. Ong)
LO: I think this is fundamentally a question about structural shift in international world order. So you have the rise of China which has a different set of values to the Western liberal order. And the question for the Western world is-- how do we accommodate China's rise given its political system structural values which are very different from us?
But this is also a question about this particular administration in the US, right now. Trump administration and his very hawkish advisors who I think has advised him to take all sorts of positions to provoke Beijing, without really addressing the problems which really should be addressed.
GVS: If I were speaking to, for instance, the president of China, and I were speaking to the, someone not in the Communist Party, just a Chinese person. What is what's their point of view of the United States?
LO: So, if you speak to the Chinese people, you know, what they see and what they hear is being filtered through, is being filtered by censorship by the government. So, so I think you know the closing of two consulates in Chengdu and Houston, is, is really not helping with the rhetoric. I think the sentiment, the broad sentiment in China right now is the US is keen on starting a cold war with China. Because US sees itself as losing competitive edge in a lot of areas, including technology and hence, it wants a bigger fight with Huawei. So this is the US losing competition and hence, finding faults with the United States. That's the broad sentiment in China right now.
GVS: How secure is President Xi? Is he, I know he’s got a long term but how secure is he in power?
LO: Very insecure, also autocrats they are very insecure. Because they do things and no one dares to go up, even to whisper to their ears that they are doing the wrong things, which is why I think recently we see a series of of very, very strange policies, dramatic departure from what China has been doing in the last 40 years.
GVS: Can he do do essentially what he wants to do, vis a vis, for instance, the United States?
LO: yes he has got a lot of power. So, a lot of power has been concentrated and centralized, not only at the central level, but in his hands. I think he is in charge, directly in charge of making a lot of decisions, foreign policy decisions.
GVS: And what happens if the if the Trump administration gets more robust in its treatment of China, I mean we’ve already shut down one consulate, they've shut down the consulate. We've had trade issues. We've got a lot of a lot, there was criticism recently in the South China Sea. We've got Hong Kong, I mean to the extent that the Trump administration keeps stepping up these things against China, what does that do for President Xi and what does that do to China?
LO: I think Xi wants to look strong to his people, I think that's very important to him, because he doesn't know whether people has loyalty towards him. So the way to do it, to acquire loyalty, is to make yourself look strong among the people to shore up nationalism. So the more rhetoric that I think Trump administration ramp up, the more they are going to provoke Beijing and President Xi to go up to do things which are more radical than that before. Which is really against I think what the US is trying to achieve, which is getting China to reform, to become more open, and to become more open in its political and trade system. but the more you try to push it in the wrong way, I think you're trying you're actually helping Xi to concentrate power further.
GVS: if the Trump administration dials it back so to speak, what, what would you predict then?
LO: I think a lot of harm is actually has already been done. If the Trump administration dials things back a little bit, I think we will see easing of tension in the short term. But I think in the medium term, there's a structural issue of the rise of China, that it sees itself has, has paid enough time in biding its time and is now time for it to shine and to show its strength to the rest of of the world. And I think that issue, how do we accommodate China that very fundamental issue has not properly, been addressed. And to address the issue properly, I think we the world really needs the US to take the leadership, broad Alliance, broad stream of alliances across the western world and across Asia to collectively address this problem.
GVS: What's the impact on President Xi of the coronavirus?
LO: The, that's an interesting question. so if I would have this conversation with you six months ago I would say that the government has been hit very badly, there was an uprising, digital uprising at the beginning of January. But now, but I think the regime was also very cleverly, you know, turning things around, able to come up with this, this, this story that it is local government that covered it up and central government has stepped in to become the portraits of as the Savior, with this very strong capacity building hospitals in two weeks, and things like that.
So overall I think it has come up pretty well, come out of this pandemic pretty well at a populist level. but at the elite level, I think people who are astute and who can see really what things are going on, there is a lot of discontent against how the government has actually handled the pandemic.
GVS: What is most important to China, at this point, what does it want?
LO: i think it still wants to, for the last 40 years so much energy has been devoted to growing the economy, making the people middle class. I think it's still wants that, but there's also an increasing desire to assert its political weight or throwing its weight around the world to become an, a big global power. And I think there are signs, emerging signs that that second objective is actually trumping the first. Even at the expense of growing its economy, it's willing to risk a trade a trade war if the second objectives is met.
(GRETA)
The coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the U.S. economy and American society has elevated China even higher on the list of critical election issues facing voters in November’s presidential election.
President Trump points to his hardline stance against Beijing as proof that he would be tougher on China than his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden who calls Trump’s policies inconsistent and ineffective.
VOA’s Brian Padden examines the China policies of both candidates.
(US Politics and China by Brian Padden)
In the past President Trump touted his transactional relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and progress toward a new trade agreement that would increase American agricultural exports.
But Trump has taken a more hardline approach toward Beijing for downplaying the coronavirus outbreak when it first appeared in Wuhan province.
((President Donald Trump))
“What China's unleashed on the world, it's hard to even fathom.”
((NARRATOR))
The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on China for alleged human rights violations against Muslim Uighurs and its crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong.
Advocates for diplomacy worry about Trump’s new hardball strategy.
((Rachel Esplin Odell, Quincy Institute For Responsible Statecraft))
“It's more coherently hostile and confrontational in ways that I think will harm U.S. interests.”
((NARRATOR))
Trump’s hawkish former national security adviser turned critic, John Bolton, has also criticized the president’s “get tough on China policy,” telling VOA it is driven solely by electoral politics.
((John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Adviser))
“I think Trump's relationship with Xi Jinping goes up and down depending on the prospects for election day. And if Trump wins re-election, I think Xi Jinping will be his big buddy once again.”
((NARRATOR))
Trump is now using his hardline China policy to attack his Democratic opponent - former Vice President Joe Biden - as being soft on China.
(President Donald Trump))
“As vice president, Biden opposed tariffs. And he was standing up for China, didn't want to do anything to disrupt the relationship with China.”
((NARRATOR))
As President Barack Obama’s vice president, Biden supported conditional engagement with China on trade and security issues.
((Joe Biden, Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee))
"We do not fear China's rise - we want to see China rise.”
((NARRATOR))
But the Obama administration also tried to contain Chinese aggression by increasing the U.S. military presence in the Pacific and strengthening regional alliances.
Biden has criticized Trump for talking tough but taking weak actions that fail to deter China. Biden says he would impose stronger sanctions on China, but critics say he has no clear alternative strategy.
((Giselle Donnelly, National Security Analyst, American Enterprise Institute))
“It strikes me that he doesn't really have a coherent philosophy of international politics or internal vision, but that he sort of responds, follows the herd, so to speak.”
((NARRATOR))
The two campaigns have also accused each other of having family business ties to Chinese companies, posing possible conflicts of interest. Brian Padden, VOA News Washington.
(Greta)
That is all the time we have.
Thank you for watching.
My thanks to our guests - Bonnie Glaser and Lynette Ong.
For the latest updates visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
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