On Plugged In:
America’s presidential election …
amid the coronavirus pandemic.
President Donald Trump …
and former Vice President …
Joe Biden …
navigate a campaign trail …
without rallies …
or handshakes.
Social distancing …
may make election day …
a little less crowded.
((George Will 26:45))
“So I think the people all around the world should be following the American election, with a sense of interest, curiosity, entertainment and some trepidation.”
My conversation …
with Pulitzer prize winning columnist ...
George Will …
on Plugged In:
Coronavirus …
and the 2020 …
U.S. Presidential Election.
((Greta))
Hello and welcome to Plugged in.
I’m Greta Van Susteren reporting from my home in Washington DC.
In less than six months Americans will be deciding whether to re-elect President Donald Trump or elect former Vice President Joe Biden instead.
And this election is happening in the middle of a pandemic.
To date more than five million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID 19. More than 340-thousand have died.
Close to one third of those deaths happened right here in the United States.
Weighing the public health impact of continuing lockdowns against easing restrictions to boost the economy is becoming a campaign issue as anti-lockdown protestors see President Trump as an ally.
VOA’s Brian Padden explains.
((Political Strategy – Brian Padden))
Protesters in states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan calling for an end to the coronavirus lockdown have President Trump as an ally.
((President Trump))
“There are a lot of protests out there, and I just think that some of the governors have gotten carried away.”
((NARRATOR))
While these states often lean Democratic, they helped propel Trump to victory in 2016, and could again play a key role in deciding the 2020 election.
Trump’s supporters say he is right to push back against what they say have been excessive and arbitrary economic restrictions imposed by the Democratic governors of these states.
((Noah Weinrich, Republican Advocate, Heritage Action for America))
“He wants to allow states to determine their lockdowns, but that doesn't mean he is not going to criticize the ones that are going over the line.”
((NARRATOR))
Some protesters in Michigan have been armed with assault rifles. Joe Biden, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for president, has denounced the intimidation tactics of demonstrators, and blasted the president for sowing discord.
Trump’s critics say the president’s inconsistent response to the pandemic, empowering the states and then criticizing their governors, is politically driven to shift blame for the crisis away from himself.
((Capri Cafaro, Democratic Analyst, American University))
“If he is able to basically, you know, divide himself, separate himself, from these individual governors in these states, particularly, swing states like Michigan for example, he can say look, it's those governors fault, not my fault that the economy is faltering. So blame them.”
((NARRATOR))
The United States has the most coronavirus cases in the world, and over 91,000 people so far have died from the outbreak. The crisis has also idled much of the nation’s economy, leaving millions without jobs.
President Trump is pushing to reopen the economy, despite concerns from health officials that the country still lacks the large-scale testing and surveillance capability needed to control the outbreak.
Political analysts critical of the president describe Trump’s strategy as reckless because it encourages crowded protests that could further the spread of the deadly virus. They also say the strategy is an implicit acknowledgment of the president’s shortcomings during the crisis.
((Matthew Dallek, Historian, George Washington University))
‘On one level, he’s saying, you know, ‘reelect me because I can bring the economy back.’ On another level, he's saying, ‘well, I wasn't able to manage the states and the governors very effectively.’”
((NARRATOR))
All 50 states have now begun to partially reopen their economies, and a number of them are experiencing an upward trend in new coronavirus cases - adding to uncertainty over how the pandemic will affect voting in November and the outcome of the election.
((Brian Padden, VOA News, Washington))
((Greta))
Regardless of who wins the US presidency , the outcome of the election will have a profound impact on the United States and the world.
George Will is a Pulitzer prize winning political columnist for the Washington Post. He’s been at it since 1974.
We talked about how coronavirus is changing America’s political landscape.
((Greta Interview – George Will))
GVS: What's the difference between the Republican party in general, and the Democratic Party, in general?
GW: well both parties are in somewhat swift transition, the Democratic Party has been taken over really by its progressive, in American vernacular that means it's a left wing. On the other hand, the Republican Party is now purely the party of Donald Trump, and its core beliefs are whatever his core beliefs are at the moment.
The problem is that they change-- his core beliefs, change a lot, but the Republican Party traditionally was the party of international engagement, but that's not true anymore because Mr. Trump, of course, is pulling the United States back toward a more America first position, it’s he’s adopted the slogan of the 1930s.
Second, the Republican Party traditionally believed in free markets and free trade. They were anti protectionist for the last 60 years.
Donald Trump has changed that also. Third, the Republican Party was for fiscal rectitude balanced budgets and all that, at least rhetorically they were.
The drama of the Republican Party right now is that the electoral strategy that Mr. Trump has is to get an ever larger portion of an ever smaller slice of the electorate-- the non-college educated white voter, in a nation that is increasingly college educated, a nation that is decreasingly white, increasingly brown and, and African American and with an enormously growing Asian American diversity.
GVS: How about on the other side of the political spectrum- the other candidate for president, former Vice President Biden. Does he have the enthusiasm within his party to get his to get his voters out to vote for him?
GW: There is definitely an enthusiasm gap. The Trump supporters are more ardent in their support of trump are than Biden supporters are in support of Biden However, Biden is counting on the fact and I think it is a fact that he will not need to rally his base. The sheer existence of Donald Trump is going to energize Democratic voters, without, without Biden being an effective cheerleader.
GVS: What about money. Money for both of them. How important is that in the election?
GW: It was traditionally thought to be the point of money is to disseminate political speech, usually on broadcast television. Well, the new media the social media, Facebook, Google, all that stuff has changed the flow of political assets away from network television, away from even cable television into a far more subtle sophisticated and varied series of platforms. Long story short I think both candidates are going to have enough money.
There comes a point at which it's like wallpaper it's there but not noticed, and the declining utility of the last political dollar is pretty steep. So, both sides are gonna have enough money. That will not decide this election.
The interesting part of this campaign is going to be the democrats attempt to expand the battlefield, to make to make an effort to campaign in and carry Arizona particularly, North Carolina, certainly, perhaps, Georgia, and depending on what the polls look like in October, perhaps even Texas.
GVS: Why should people around the world be interested in this election, what does it mean to them?
GW: Well, what it means to them is the following. Since the 1945, since the guns of the Second World War fell silent, there has been a remarkable growth and stability. There have been no great wars since then, and there has been what economists call the great enrichment. Billions of people, billions of people, because of economic growth and liberalization of trade, billions of people have been raised from subsistence level poverty into something like a a comfortable even a middle class life. If America pulls back from this world order that it was instrumental in bringing about, there is apt to be unleashing of forces that are hard to predict, but cannot be considered good.
Nationalisms, trade rivalries, the erection of barriers around the around the world to the free flow of goods and ideas and capital and people, so that the entire world has an enormous stake in America's decision about how to engage with the world. So I think the people all around the world should be following the American election, with a sense of interest, curiosity, entertainment and some trepidation.
It's one thing for Mr. Trump to have been elected once in a confused and uncertain election of 2016. For the American people to watch him govern for four years, and to have witnessed his extravagant rhetoric. And after four years to say yeah let's do this again. That would be a momentous development, a momentous judgment on the temper of the American people and the nature of American civic life. So in that sense, the re-election of Donald Trump would be an enormous watershed, the most important event since 1980.
Do the Five – Help stop coronavirus:
Hands - Wash them often.
Elbow – Cough into it.
Face – Don’t touch it.
Feet – Stay more than 3 feet (1 meter) apart.
Feel Sick? Stay at home.
Do the five – help stop coronavirus.
((Greta))
Some might say the 2008 election of Barack Obama as America’s first black president would be as momentous.
Now four years after President Obama left the White House, he is back in the political spotlight: as a supporter of his former Vice President Joe Biden and also as a target of political attacks by President Trump.
VOA Senior White House correspondent Patsy Widakuswara explains.
((The Obama factor – Patsy Widakuswara))
President Donald Trump is returning to a familiar political target.
((President Donald Trump))
“Obamagate. It's been going on for a long time. It's been going on from before I even got elected.”
((NARRATOR))
Obamagate is a conspiracy theory that the former president and his allies plotted to sabotage the incoming Trump administration, including by masterminding the Muller probe that investigated Russian interference to help Trump win the 2016 U.S. election.
Trump is pushing the theory ahead of the November election where he will face Joe Biden, Obama’s former vice president.
((Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute ))
“Anything that he can do to cast a bad spotlight on Biden, even if it's indirectly through criticism of Obama and the Obama administration, is something that Trump and his campaign and his cronies will seize upon. And in this case, the fact that he was vice president to Obama, and knew about some of these investigations going on, gives them enough of a hook to be able to tie Biden into this.”
((NARRATOR))
Part of Obamagate is the saga of Trump’s former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, accused of lying to the FBI about his interactions with Russia’s ambassador a few weeks before Trump was inaugurated.
((NARRATOR))
Trump claimed Flynn was illegally targeted, and in a stunning reversal, his administration dropped the charge. His intelligence chief Richard Grenell declassified the names of senior Obama administration officials involved in "unmasking" or learning of Flynn’s identity while he was under government surveillance.
The officials included Joe Biden, prompting an uproar from Trump allies.
((Sen. Rand Paul, Republican))
"If Vice President Biden and the president's inner circle of advisers were all listening to a senior Trump administration adviser's private phone conversation, this would amount to a serious abuse of power."
((NARRATOR))
Unmasking is a common practice in U.S. intelligence and the Biden campaign dismissed the claim as a “distraction.” But the Trump campaign is pushing the narrative that Biden abused his power.
((Jennifer Mercieca, Texas A&M University))
“It doesn't matter if something is true or not true. If you can say that there's a conspiracy afoot and convince other people to agree with you about that, then you become a very powerful person because you've indicted them, appealing to distrust.”
((NARRATOR))
With U.S. coronavirus cases rising, critics say Trump’s focus on Obama is partly an attempt to deflect attention from his administration’s handling of the pandemic.
((Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute))
“Obamagate becomes a terrific distraction from the big story of our times, which is not a good story for Donald Trump.”
((NARRATOR))
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said that Obama officials have painted Trump as a Russian asset without any evidence.
((Patsy Widakuswara, VOA News, Washington))
((Greta))
The political rivalry is fierce.
President Trump and his allies see Joe Biden as an extension of the Obama legacy.
And Biden supporters are happy to have the former president’s popularity on their side.
But this is not a typical election year.
I spoke to Joseph Trippi, a nationally known Democratic political strategist.
He has worked on many presidential campaigns and has been a political commentator for several U.S. TV networks.
I asked Joe how coronavirus is going to impact this presidential campaign.
((Greta interview – Joseph Trippi))
JT: Well, it’s obviously it's changed everything. We're starting to think it may be the first no touch campaign in American history. It's unclear yet whether there will even be the normal conventions, they'll whether there will be any of the normal door to door knocking, getting out votes, or even rallies. But there’s a lot of hope that some normal campaigning will come into play. But right now Joe Biden, for instance has been basically relegated out of running his campaign from his basement. It seems to be working for him, at least so far, but I think anybody who tells you they know how, with how uncertain things are how this will turn out, how much impact it will have even in just - will people vote? We’ve seen this in some of the states where people were concerned that people wouldn’t stand in lines, but they did and then many of them got sick and so questions moving forward, anything - even just a lower turnout.
GVS: Who is strategically is at a greater disadvantage because President Trump loves to get out and do those rallies?
JT: President Trump thrives on the big rallies on energizing his base voters. It's unclear that his transferring that to briefings from the White House, are as effective for him. In fact, there are signs that that's not working at all for him very well as his, his his energy level with, with some of his own supporters is even starting to decline slightly not a lot, but slightly. Biden, on the other hand, never, never thrived on big crowds in fact it always seemed to not be something he was very good at. So, him being out in the limelight and sort of been being relegated to his basement is not yet showing up to be a problem for him. But again it's very early. We'll have to see as we move forward.
I mean they're, it's gonna be a huge shift in style for both campaigns. And digital campaigning, online campaigning, something that Trump's been very,very good at with Twitter and reaching on social media. Does that give him some advantage in this in this environment? That that's what a lot of Democrats are concerned about --that the Biden campaign has not yet caught up with the Trump campaign in terms of ability and social media, Twitter, Facebook, and online campaigning, although there's been a lot of improvement, there's still some that where he must, must do better.
GVS: //We've never had a woman president in this country never had a woman vice president in this country. Was it smart to you think, Vice President Biden to say he would choose a woman. Does that really move the, the woman vote in November to come out and vote for him?
JT: I don't know that it does that, I think, I think he's also, I mean I think he's done two things. he made it clear that a woman would be on the ticket with him. And the second thing I think he's called him, you know started to say that he's a bridge to the next generation, which has been talking about a younger group, his cabinet future cabinet members that he's I think likely to be talking about as we, as he moves forward. So I think this is a nod, that hey, you know, things have changed, we have to have a diverse-- the party, the diverse party that the Democrats are --is going to wage a different kind of campaign. and I think it will be historic.
GVS: But come September, if we have a treatment, we're not gonna have a vaccine. but a treatment, that we're on the road to getting a vaccine, do you think that the issue of coronavirus will have a huge impact on voters when they go to the polls in November, or will it be what pandemic?
JT: I don't think - my own view is I don't think there'll be a what pandemic? view going into the election. This is going to impact the election for sure. I mean look, the number one issue in the United States for quite a while has been healthcare. In fact, the big debate in the Democratic primaries was about the Medicare for all, giving everybody health care or some something not as far-fetched as that. But it was all about health care. This put that issue front and center, it's going to continue to be and that fight is going to continue in this election in the context of COVID-19.
The second thing and the one thing that was, I think, holding, creating a lot of Trump's strength was the economy and job creation and where the stock market was going. Does that recover enough? Or is it now an added weight on him going into the November election? So I think it's gonna be those two issues health care and the economy.
GVS: So these are two very different candidates, very different directions for America. So this does feel so consequential to me.
JT: Yeah, no, this, this is gonna be a either 180 degree turn away from where Trump's taking the country, or it's going to double down on it.
That is a massive impact, not just the United States but to the world in terms of which way that goes so yeah I think I'm with you. I've been one of those who's thought every election was the critical one. But this one, this one really would have far greater impact than I would have thought a few years back. This is the one that could, I really do and you think about the starkness of the difference not just the United States, but again to the literally sea change in foreign policy in either direction.
And in fact, I think the bigger thing is the doubling down. I mean, it's, I think Trump's strategy, his foreign policy has been one thing. I think, if he wins a second term, he's the kind of personality that then just gets in even bigger and deeper and stronger in that direction.
((Greta))
Both presidential campaigns know the key to winning is getting their supporters to vote.
Short of developing a vaccine in time for the election, many people believe social distancing will still be in practice when Americans vote for president on November 3rd.
And rules for absentee voting and voting by mail are in the crosshairs of coronavirus politics.
VOA’s Steve Redisch explains.
((Mail-In Voting – Steve Redisch))
Coronavirus --- and the social distancing that comes with it --- is providing ammunition for those who want to expand the ability for Americans to vote by mail.
President Trump is leading the charge against it.
((President Donald Trump))
“Mail-ballots are very dangerous. There's tremendous fraud involved and tremendous illegality."
((NARRATOR))
Trump threatened to hold up federal funding to Michigan and Nevada because the two states sent an application for an absentee ballot to all registered voters.
((President Donald Trump))
“You can’t do that, you got to go and vote. People have to check you, they have to see that it’s you, they’re supposed to look at you and check you.”
((NARRATOR))
Experts say instances of vote-by-mail fraud are rare. Democrats are concerned coronavirus will keep voters from going to polling places.
((Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker))
“We want to have more money for our election vote by mail initiatives.”
((NARRATOR))
The President has said expanding vote by mail would play to the Democrats’ advantage and mean “you’d never have a Republican elected again.”
((George Will, Political Columnist))
“The Democrats think perhaps with reason that their voters are more apt to, their vote is more apt to be in large by making voting easier. Republicans probably feel perhaps with reason that impediments and difficulties are a kind of filter to keep the less ardent voters at home.”
((NARRATOR))
Studies show vote by mail gives neither party an advantage.
((Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis Law Professor))
“The universal experience of vote by mail states and no excuse absentee voting states is that - allowing that additional means of voting increases turnout across the board for both Democrats and Republicans by about 8 percentage points.”
((NARRATOR))
Voting by absentee ballot started in 1864, when states on both sides of the American Civil War allowed soldiers to vote for president from their battlefield posts.
Since then, states have allowed absentee ballots for reasons such as military service, disabilities, and out-of-state travel on election day.
Oregon became the first state to make vote by mail the standard in 1998. Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii have followed suit.
29 states allow a “no-excuse” absentee ballot --- anyone who asks gets one.
Many but not all of the 16 states still requiring a valid excuse are now including Coronavirus.
((Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis Law Professor))
“Voters shouldn't have to risk their safety and their health and the health and safety of their loved ones in order to exercise their fundamental right to vote.”
((NARRATOR))
Wisconsin refused to postpone its primary election in April. About 400-thousand voters showed up at the polls. At least 36 voters and poll workers tested positive for COVID-19.
Steve Redisch, VOA News, Washington
((Greta))
America’s polarized political atmosphere is seemingly
finding its way through the pandemic.
So, before we go I’d like to share a bit more insight from George Will about how we got here and where we might be going.
((Greta interview George Will - part 2))
GVS: And one little caveat the 2016 election, had been won by a Democrat, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, she would have had two choices to the US Supreme Court that President Trump had, which of course is a lifetime appointment, which also sets the agenda for the country.
GW: Absolutely right. And one in five voters, according to exit polls, one in five voters in 2016 said that one of their principal concerns was the composition of the federal judiciary and particularly the Supreme Court, because nine people on the Supreme Court. But the fact that there was an open seat. I happen to believe that if there hadn't been an open seat, if Justice Scalia had not died in February 2016, Donald Trump would not have been elected. But the fact that there was an open seat that Senator McConnell the majority leader leader of the republicans in the senate said “we're going to keep that seat open” energized Republicans in a way that certainly provided the margin of victory I think for Donald Trump.
GVS: In terms of the election that way I think I hear this every four years, people say, this is the most important election of my lifetime. You ever thought about that as it relates to this election or is this just as important as every other one or is this one particularly different?
GW: Well there’s no such thing as a boring American election and there's no such thing as an unimportant election. That said, I hate to, this, I've not said this since 1980, I thought the 1980 elections, was a national emergency, because I thought the stagnation or economic stagnation at home in the 1970s and the aggressiveness of the Soviet Union in the 1970s made the election of Ronald Reagan supremely important.
GVS: If former Vice President Biden is elected. It is likely not certain, but likely that the house will remain Democratic way I think they will anyway will anyway, but that the Senate which has been Republican will turn Democrat that the Democrats will come out in droves for Vice President Biden, thereby changing the Senate Democrats so that it would have a Democratic president, a house that's Democrat a senate that's Democrat maybe not filibuster proof, but it would that not have a significant impact on the direction of the country?
GW: It would have a tremendous impact. As long as the Senate is in Republican hands, the Democratic agenda is not going anywhere at all.
Change the Senate, give the Democrats united government and you will have an open highway down which they can roll their, their entire agenda.
Judicial Appointments, legislation oversight, all kinds of things that would be momentous. and I agree with you I think that if Trump wins, I mean if Joe Biden wins, the Republicans will lose control of the Senate.
And if they do you will have, this election will matter in a way that the, the 2016 election didn't quite matter in the sense that, with the two houses of Congress in different hands, coming to a consensus, at any time in American history is difficult, at this particular moment in American history it's almost impossible.
((Greta))
Thank you for watching. We will see you next week.
For the latest updates on the coronavirus pandemic ...
please visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
America’s presidential election …
amid the coronavirus pandemic.
President Donald Trump …
and former Vice President …
Joe Biden …
navigate a campaign trail …
without rallies …
or handshakes.
Social distancing …
may make election day …
a little less crowded.
((George Will 26:45))
“So I think the people all around the world should be following the American election, with a sense of interest, curiosity, entertainment and some trepidation.”
My conversation …
with Pulitzer prize winning columnist ...
George Will …
on Plugged In:
Coronavirus …
and the 2020 …
U.S. Presidential Election.
((Greta))
Hello and welcome to Plugged in.
I’m Greta Van Susteren reporting from my home in Washington DC.
In less than six months Americans will be deciding whether to re-elect President Donald Trump or elect former Vice President Joe Biden instead.
And this election is happening in the middle of a pandemic.
To date more than five million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID 19. More than 340-thousand have died.
Close to one third of those deaths happened right here in the United States.
Weighing the public health impact of continuing lockdowns against easing restrictions to boost the economy is becoming a campaign issue as anti-lockdown protestors see President Trump as an ally.
VOA’s Brian Padden explains.
((Political Strategy – Brian Padden))
Protesters in states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan calling for an end to the coronavirus lockdown have President Trump as an ally.
((President Trump))
“There are a lot of protests out there, and I just think that some of the governors have gotten carried away.”
((NARRATOR))
While these states often lean Democratic, they helped propel Trump to victory in 2016, and could again play a key role in deciding the 2020 election.
Trump’s supporters say he is right to push back against what they say have been excessive and arbitrary economic restrictions imposed by the Democratic governors of these states.
((Noah Weinrich, Republican Advocate, Heritage Action for America))
“He wants to allow states to determine their lockdowns, but that doesn't mean he is not going to criticize the ones that are going over the line.”
((NARRATOR))
Some protesters in Michigan have been armed with assault rifles. Joe Biden, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for president, has denounced the intimidation tactics of demonstrators, and blasted the president for sowing discord.
Trump’s critics say the president’s inconsistent response to the pandemic, empowering the states and then criticizing their governors, is politically driven to shift blame for the crisis away from himself.
((Capri Cafaro, Democratic Analyst, American University))
“If he is able to basically, you know, divide himself, separate himself, from these individual governors in these states, particularly, swing states like Michigan for example, he can say look, it's those governors fault, not my fault that the economy is faltering. So blame them.”
((NARRATOR))
The United States has the most coronavirus cases in the world, and over 91,000 people so far have died from the outbreak. The crisis has also idled much of the nation’s economy, leaving millions without jobs.
President Trump is pushing to reopen the economy, despite concerns from health officials that the country still lacks the large-scale testing and surveillance capability needed to control the outbreak.
Political analysts critical of the president describe Trump’s strategy as reckless because it encourages crowded protests that could further the spread of the deadly virus. They also say the strategy is an implicit acknowledgment of the president’s shortcomings during the crisis.
((Matthew Dallek, Historian, George Washington University))
‘On one level, he’s saying, you know, ‘reelect me because I can bring the economy back.’ On another level, he's saying, ‘well, I wasn't able to manage the states and the governors very effectively.’”
((NARRATOR))
All 50 states have now begun to partially reopen their economies, and a number of them are experiencing an upward trend in new coronavirus cases - adding to uncertainty over how the pandemic will affect voting in November and the outcome of the election.
((Brian Padden, VOA News, Washington))
((Greta))
Regardless of who wins the US presidency , the outcome of the election will have a profound impact on the United States and the world.
George Will is a Pulitzer prize winning political columnist for the Washington Post. He’s been at it since 1974.
We talked about how coronavirus is changing America’s political landscape.
((Greta Interview – George Will))
GVS: What's the difference between the Republican party in general, and the Democratic Party, in general?
GW: well both parties are in somewhat swift transition, the Democratic Party has been taken over really by its progressive, in American vernacular that means it's a left wing. On the other hand, the Republican Party is now purely the party of Donald Trump, and its core beliefs are whatever his core beliefs are at the moment.
The problem is that they change-- his core beliefs, change a lot, but the Republican Party traditionally was the party of international engagement, but that's not true anymore because Mr. Trump, of course, is pulling the United States back toward a more America first position, it’s he’s adopted the slogan of the 1930s.
Second, the Republican Party traditionally believed in free markets and free trade. They were anti protectionist for the last 60 years.
Donald Trump has changed that also. Third, the Republican Party was for fiscal rectitude balanced budgets and all that, at least rhetorically they were.
The drama of the Republican Party right now is that the electoral strategy that Mr. Trump has is to get an ever larger portion of an ever smaller slice of the electorate-- the non-college educated white voter, in a nation that is increasingly college educated, a nation that is decreasingly white, increasingly brown and, and African American and with an enormously growing Asian American diversity.
GVS: How about on the other side of the political spectrum- the other candidate for president, former Vice President Biden. Does he have the enthusiasm within his party to get his to get his voters out to vote for him?
GW: There is definitely an enthusiasm gap. The Trump supporters are more ardent in their support of trump are than Biden supporters are in support of Biden However, Biden is counting on the fact and I think it is a fact that he will not need to rally his base. The sheer existence of Donald Trump is going to energize Democratic voters, without, without Biden being an effective cheerleader.
GVS: What about money. Money for both of them. How important is that in the election?
GW: It was traditionally thought to be the point of money is to disseminate political speech, usually on broadcast television. Well, the new media the social media, Facebook, Google, all that stuff has changed the flow of political assets away from network television, away from even cable television into a far more subtle sophisticated and varied series of platforms. Long story short I think both candidates are going to have enough money.
There comes a point at which it's like wallpaper it's there but not noticed, and the declining utility of the last political dollar is pretty steep. So, both sides are gonna have enough money. That will not decide this election.
The interesting part of this campaign is going to be the democrats attempt to expand the battlefield, to make to make an effort to campaign in and carry Arizona particularly, North Carolina, certainly, perhaps, Georgia, and depending on what the polls look like in October, perhaps even Texas.
GVS: Why should people around the world be interested in this election, what does it mean to them?
GW: Well, what it means to them is the following. Since the 1945, since the guns of the Second World War fell silent, there has been a remarkable growth and stability. There have been no great wars since then, and there has been what economists call the great enrichment. Billions of people, billions of people, because of economic growth and liberalization of trade, billions of people have been raised from subsistence level poverty into something like a a comfortable even a middle class life. If America pulls back from this world order that it was instrumental in bringing about, there is apt to be unleashing of forces that are hard to predict, but cannot be considered good.
Nationalisms, trade rivalries, the erection of barriers around the around the world to the free flow of goods and ideas and capital and people, so that the entire world has an enormous stake in America's decision about how to engage with the world. So I think the people all around the world should be following the American election, with a sense of interest, curiosity, entertainment and some trepidation.
It's one thing for Mr. Trump to have been elected once in a confused and uncertain election of 2016. For the American people to watch him govern for four years, and to have witnessed his extravagant rhetoric. And after four years to say yeah let's do this again. That would be a momentous development, a momentous judgment on the temper of the American people and the nature of American civic life. So in that sense, the re-election of Donald Trump would be an enormous watershed, the most important event since 1980.
Do the Five – Help stop coronavirus:
Hands - Wash them often.
Elbow – Cough into it.
Face – Don’t touch it.
Feet – Stay more than 3 feet (1 meter) apart.
Feel Sick? Stay at home.
Do the five – help stop coronavirus.
((Greta))
Some might say the 2008 election of Barack Obama as America’s first black president would be as momentous.
Now four years after President Obama left the White House, he is back in the political spotlight: as a supporter of his former Vice President Joe Biden and also as a target of political attacks by President Trump.
VOA Senior White House correspondent Patsy Widakuswara explains.
((The Obama factor – Patsy Widakuswara))
President Donald Trump is returning to a familiar political target.
((President Donald Trump))
“Obamagate. It's been going on for a long time. It's been going on from before I even got elected.”
((NARRATOR))
Obamagate is a conspiracy theory that the former president and his allies plotted to sabotage the incoming Trump administration, including by masterminding the Muller probe that investigated Russian interference to help Trump win the 2016 U.S. election.
Trump is pushing the theory ahead of the November election where he will face Joe Biden, Obama’s former vice president.
((Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute ))
“Anything that he can do to cast a bad spotlight on Biden, even if it's indirectly through criticism of Obama and the Obama administration, is something that Trump and his campaign and his cronies will seize upon. And in this case, the fact that he was vice president to Obama, and knew about some of these investigations going on, gives them enough of a hook to be able to tie Biden into this.”
((NARRATOR))
Part of Obamagate is the saga of Trump’s former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, accused of lying to the FBI about his interactions with Russia’s ambassador a few weeks before Trump was inaugurated.
((NARRATOR))
Trump claimed Flynn was illegally targeted, and in a stunning reversal, his administration dropped the charge. His intelligence chief Richard Grenell declassified the names of senior Obama administration officials involved in "unmasking" or learning of Flynn’s identity while he was under government surveillance.
The officials included Joe Biden, prompting an uproar from Trump allies.
((Sen. Rand Paul, Republican))
"If Vice President Biden and the president's inner circle of advisers were all listening to a senior Trump administration adviser's private phone conversation, this would amount to a serious abuse of power."
((NARRATOR))
Unmasking is a common practice in U.S. intelligence and the Biden campaign dismissed the claim as a “distraction.” But the Trump campaign is pushing the narrative that Biden abused his power.
((Jennifer Mercieca, Texas A&M University))
“It doesn't matter if something is true or not true. If you can say that there's a conspiracy afoot and convince other people to agree with you about that, then you become a very powerful person because you've indicted them, appealing to distrust.”
((NARRATOR))
With U.S. coronavirus cases rising, critics say Trump’s focus on Obama is partly an attempt to deflect attention from his administration’s handling of the pandemic.
((Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute))
“Obamagate becomes a terrific distraction from the big story of our times, which is not a good story for Donald Trump.”
((NARRATOR))
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said that Obama officials have painted Trump as a Russian asset without any evidence.
((Patsy Widakuswara, VOA News, Washington))
((Greta))
The political rivalry is fierce.
President Trump and his allies see Joe Biden as an extension of the Obama legacy.
And Biden supporters are happy to have the former president’s popularity on their side.
But this is not a typical election year.
I spoke to Joseph Trippi, a nationally known Democratic political strategist.
He has worked on many presidential campaigns and has been a political commentator for several U.S. TV networks.
I asked Joe how coronavirus is going to impact this presidential campaign.
((Greta interview – Joseph Trippi))
JT: Well, it’s obviously it's changed everything. We're starting to think it may be the first no touch campaign in American history. It's unclear yet whether there will even be the normal conventions, they'll whether there will be any of the normal door to door knocking, getting out votes, or even rallies. But there’s a lot of hope that some normal campaigning will come into play. But right now Joe Biden, for instance has been basically relegated out of running his campaign from his basement. It seems to be working for him, at least so far, but I think anybody who tells you they know how, with how uncertain things are how this will turn out, how much impact it will have even in just - will people vote? We’ve seen this in some of the states where people were concerned that people wouldn’t stand in lines, but they did and then many of them got sick and so questions moving forward, anything - even just a lower turnout.
GVS: Who is strategically is at a greater disadvantage because President Trump loves to get out and do those rallies?
JT: President Trump thrives on the big rallies on energizing his base voters. It's unclear that his transferring that to briefings from the White House, are as effective for him. In fact, there are signs that that's not working at all for him very well as his, his his energy level with, with some of his own supporters is even starting to decline slightly not a lot, but slightly. Biden, on the other hand, never, never thrived on big crowds in fact it always seemed to not be something he was very good at. So, him being out in the limelight and sort of been being relegated to his basement is not yet showing up to be a problem for him. But again it's very early. We'll have to see as we move forward.
I mean they're, it's gonna be a huge shift in style for both campaigns. And digital campaigning, online campaigning, something that Trump's been very,very good at with Twitter and reaching on social media. Does that give him some advantage in this in this environment? That that's what a lot of Democrats are concerned about --that the Biden campaign has not yet caught up with the Trump campaign in terms of ability and social media, Twitter, Facebook, and online campaigning, although there's been a lot of improvement, there's still some that where he must, must do better.
GVS: //We've never had a woman president in this country never had a woman vice president in this country. Was it smart to you think, Vice President Biden to say he would choose a woman. Does that really move the, the woman vote in November to come out and vote for him?
JT: I don't know that it does that, I think, I think he's also, I mean I think he's done two things. he made it clear that a woman would be on the ticket with him. And the second thing I think he's called him, you know started to say that he's a bridge to the next generation, which has been talking about a younger group, his cabinet future cabinet members that he's I think likely to be talking about as we, as he moves forward. So I think this is a nod, that hey, you know, things have changed, we have to have a diverse-- the party, the diverse party that the Democrats are --is going to wage a different kind of campaign. and I think it will be historic.
GVS: But come September, if we have a treatment, we're not gonna have a vaccine. but a treatment, that we're on the road to getting a vaccine, do you think that the issue of coronavirus will have a huge impact on voters when they go to the polls in November, or will it be what pandemic?
JT: I don't think - my own view is I don't think there'll be a what pandemic? view going into the election. This is going to impact the election for sure. I mean look, the number one issue in the United States for quite a while has been healthcare. In fact, the big debate in the Democratic primaries was about the Medicare for all, giving everybody health care or some something not as far-fetched as that. But it was all about health care. This put that issue front and center, it's going to continue to be and that fight is going to continue in this election in the context of COVID-19.
The second thing and the one thing that was, I think, holding, creating a lot of Trump's strength was the economy and job creation and where the stock market was going. Does that recover enough? Or is it now an added weight on him going into the November election? So I think it's gonna be those two issues health care and the economy.
GVS: So these are two very different candidates, very different directions for America. So this does feel so consequential to me.
JT: Yeah, no, this, this is gonna be a either 180 degree turn away from where Trump's taking the country, or it's going to double down on it.
That is a massive impact, not just the United States but to the world in terms of which way that goes so yeah I think I'm with you. I've been one of those who's thought every election was the critical one. But this one, this one really would have far greater impact than I would have thought a few years back. This is the one that could, I really do and you think about the starkness of the difference not just the United States, but again to the literally sea change in foreign policy in either direction.
And in fact, I think the bigger thing is the doubling down. I mean, it's, I think Trump's strategy, his foreign policy has been one thing. I think, if he wins a second term, he's the kind of personality that then just gets in even bigger and deeper and stronger in that direction.
((Greta))
Both presidential campaigns know the key to winning is getting their supporters to vote.
Short of developing a vaccine in time for the election, many people believe social distancing will still be in practice when Americans vote for president on November 3rd.
And rules for absentee voting and voting by mail are in the crosshairs of coronavirus politics.
VOA’s Steve Redisch explains.
((Mail-In Voting – Steve Redisch))
Coronavirus --- and the social distancing that comes with it --- is providing ammunition for those who want to expand the ability for Americans to vote by mail.
President Trump is leading the charge against it.
((President Donald Trump))
“Mail-ballots are very dangerous. There's tremendous fraud involved and tremendous illegality."
((NARRATOR))
Trump threatened to hold up federal funding to Michigan and Nevada because the two states sent an application for an absentee ballot to all registered voters.
((President Donald Trump))
“You can’t do that, you got to go and vote. People have to check you, they have to see that it’s you, they’re supposed to look at you and check you.”
((NARRATOR))
Experts say instances of vote-by-mail fraud are rare. Democrats are concerned coronavirus will keep voters from going to polling places.
((Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker))
“We want to have more money for our election vote by mail initiatives.”
((NARRATOR))
The President has said expanding vote by mail would play to the Democrats’ advantage and mean “you’d never have a Republican elected again.”
((George Will, Political Columnist))
“The Democrats think perhaps with reason that their voters are more apt to, their vote is more apt to be in large by making voting easier. Republicans probably feel perhaps with reason that impediments and difficulties are a kind of filter to keep the less ardent voters at home.”
((NARRATOR))
Studies show vote by mail gives neither party an advantage.
((Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis Law Professor))
“The universal experience of vote by mail states and no excuse absentee voting states is that - allowing that additional means of voting increases turnout across the board for both Democrats and Republicans by about 8 percentage points.”
((NARRATOR))
Voting by absentee ballot started in 1864, when states on both sides of the American Civil War allowed soldiers to vote for president from their battlefield posts.
Since then, states have allowed absentee ballots for reasons such as military service, disabilities, and out-of-state travel on election day.
Oregon became the first state to make vote by mail the standard in 1998. Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii have followed suit.
29 states allow a “no-excuse” absentee ballot --- anyone who asks gets one.
Many but not all of the 16 states still requiring a valid excuse are now including Coronavirus.
((Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis Law Professor))
“Voters shouldn't have to risk their safety and their health and the health and safety of their loved ones in order to exercise their fundamental right to vote.”
((NARRATOR))
Wisconsin refused to postpone its primary election in April. About 400-thousand voters showed up at the polls. At least 36 voters and poll workers tested positive for COVID-19.
Steve Redisch, VOA News, Washington
((Greta))
America’s polarized political atmosphere is seemingly
finding its way through the pandemic.
So, before we go I’d like to share a bit more insight from George Will about how we got here and where we might be going.
((Greta interview George Will - part 2))
GVS: And one little caveat the 2016 election, had been won by a Democrat, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, she would have had two choices to the US Supreme Court that President Trump had, which of course is a lifetime appointment, which also sets the agenda for the country.
GW: Absolutely right. And one in five voters, according to exit polls, one in five voters in 2016 said that one of their principal concerns was the composition of the federal judiciary and particularly the Supreme Court, because nine people on the Supreme Court. But the fact that there was an open seat. I happen to believe that if there hadn't been an open seat, if Justice Scalia had not died in February 2016, Donald Trump would not have been elected. But the fact that there was an open seat that Senator McConnell the majority leader leader of the republicans in the senate said “we're going to keep that seat open” energized Republicans in a way that certainly provided the margin of victory I think for Donald Trump.
GVS: In terms of the election that way I think I hear this every four years, people say, this is the most important election of my lifetime. You ever thought about that as it relates to this election or is this just as important as every other one or is this one particularly different?
GW: Well there’s no such thing as a boring American election and there's no such thing as an unimportant election. That said, I hate to, this, I've not said this since 1980, I thought the 1980 elections, was a national emergency, because I thought the stagnation or economic stagnation at home in the 1970s and the aggressiveness of the Soviet Union in the 1970s made the election of Ronald Reagan supremely important.
GVS: If former Vice President Biden is elected. It is likely not certain, but likely that the house will remain Democratic way I think they will anyway will anyway, but that the Senate which has been Republican will turn Democrat that the Democrats will come out in droves for Vice President Biden, thereby changing the Senate Democrats so that it would have a Democratic president, a house that's Democrat a senate that's Democrat maybe not filibuster proof, but it would that not have a significant impact on the direction of the country?
GW: It would have a tremendous impact. As long as the Senate is in Republican hands, the Democratic agenda is not going anywhere at all.
Change the Senate, give the Democrats united government and you will have an open highway down which they can roll their, their entire agenda.
Judicial Appointments, legislation oversight, all kinds of things that would be momentous. and I agree with you I think that if Trump wins, I mean if Joe Biden wins, the Republicans will lose control of the Senate.
And if they do you will have, this election will matter in a way that the, the 2016 election didn't quite matter in the sense that, with the two houses of Congress in different hands, coming to a consensus, at any time in American history is difficult, at this particular moment in American history it's almost impossible.
((Greta))
Thank you for watching. We will see you next week.
For the latest updates on the coronavirus pandemic ...
please visit our website at VOANews.com.
And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @Greta.
Thank you for being Plugged In.
