On Plugged In..
The shrinking Democratic presidential field…
14 states …
Representing nearly 40% of the voting public…
In play…
on the single largest day…
of primary voting…
Are Democrats…
Starting to unify…
Behind one candidate?
Who has the best chance…
of defeating…
President Trump?
And who will be next…
To drop out of the race?
Our correspondents…
and political experts…
weigh in…
On Plugged In:
“America Votes – Super Tuesday”
(WELCOME)
Hello and welcome to a special election edition of Plugged in. I'm Jim Malone filling in for Greta Van Susteren.
It was a night of high drama for the Democratic Party, and a huge comeback for Joe Biden. A Democratic field that began last year with more than two- dozen contenders now appears down to only two: Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
We begin with the latest in what remains a developing story. Primary votes in some states are still being counted, but the biggest take-away after Super Tuesday was the resurgence of Joe Biden and what is now a two man race between the former vice president and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
To help us unpack the Super Tuesday results, we have VOA reporters standing by in two of the key states.
Elizabeth Lee in the Southwestern state of California, where over 400 delegates are in play and Carolyn Presutti in Texas, where 228 delegates will be divvied up among qualifying candidates.
We begin with Carolyn, who has been covering primary voters in the lone star state. She joins us from Fort Worth.
(Jim Malone interviews Carolyn Presutti)
JM: Carolyn, you had quite a race down there in Texas.
CP: Absolutely. It was much closer than anyone thought. It proved the pundits wrong and actually, it proved the polls wrong too. and from when I spoke with the voters it's attributed to two things - Joe Biden surge one, because of these huge win in South Carolina, the Saturday before Super Tuesday. And two, because of the rally he held here in Dallas.
Now, his first rally was with one of his rivals, former South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. And then within the hour, he showed up at another rally with another rival - it was Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Now both Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsed Biden, so a lot of their voters went over to the Biden camp. And when Klobuchar introduced Biden, she said, “this is a candidate who will put our country back together to heal.” And that was mirrored by a lot of the voters that I talked to. They said that they want to get back to politics as usual. They don't really want to see reform. they want someone with a track record, and hence they were voting for Joe Biden.
But you know, Jim, Biden has some issues that he has to deal with. And one is the younger vote. At that rally with Klobuchar I spoke with three people at the front of the line. And actually the line wrapped around a Dallas ballroom several times. So there were a lot of people coming out to see Biden and to hear Biden. But the three at the top of the line were college freshmen. And I said to them, wait a second. Where's everybody else? Where's everybody from your dorm floor? Where's all your buddies? and they said well they're voting for Sanders. and I said, Why aren't you? and they said, Well, you know, we know that not everything is free. health care for all and free college, we know that there has to be a catch there. and so they said we face reality and that's why we're going with Biden.
On the other hand, Biden does have an issue too. He's not getting the African American vote here in Texas. I spoke with a couple of African American voters yesterday at a polling location. One man rode the bus and he said he didn't care how long he waited, he was going to put in his vote, his vote for Biden, he said because President Obama chose Biden, and he said, “that was a man who had good judgment, and that's why I'm voting for Biden.”
(crosstalk)
JM: Carolyn you were on the ground in the final days there. Could you actually feel it shifting from Bernie Sanders to Biden?
CP: Absolutely. Because it was those endorsements that were key. The people that had previously supported, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, the Senator from Minnesota, they were switching over to the Biden camp. And you could feel the excitement in the room too, during the rallies the night before Super Tuesday.
JM: What were democrats looking- the people you talked to-- what are they looking for in a candidate to take on President Trump in November? What was their number one priority?
CP: That's it, though. You said it. they want somebody who can beat President Trump, that's their number one mission. I spoke to somebody who wouldn’t tell me who he voted for, but he said to me, “no socialist is ever going to be beat anyone in this country, and that being of course a reference to self- described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders.
JM: So just briefly Carolyn to wrap up. It was in fact a close race but this latest surge from Biden starting in South Carolina last Saturday, really seemed to have turned the tide in Texas, a key state in terms of the Democratic primary?
CP: Absolutely. We are definitely a key state here, with 228 delegates up for grabs. Everyone wanted to crisscross Texas, everyone wanted to get their votes here.
JM: ((Crosstalk)) Did you get a sense that—
CP: and you know Texas came out in full force—
JM: Did you get a sense that Democratic voters were engaged and turned out in strong numbers in this primary?
CP: Absolutely. I didn't have anyone that I talked to say to me, “I'm going to decide in the voting booth, or I decided in the voting booth.” they knew walking into the polling place who they were going to vote for it. they were, they had already made up their minds. and they did come out in full force. you know, four years ago in 2016 for the Democratic primary here in Texas, one and a half million people voted, we had more than 2 million vote on Super Tuesday this year.
CP: All right, Carolyn Presutti in Fort Worth thanks so much for that.
(JIM MALONE)
Ballots are still being counted in California, which is by far the largest of the 14 Super Tuesday states.
415 delegates will be awarded proportionately to candidates who reach the required threshold of at least 15 percent of the votes. It appears right now that Sanders is leading in that state.
(Jim Malone interviews Elizabeth Lee)
JM: We’re joined by VOA’s Elizabeth Lee, who’s been covering that primary race. She's with us from our Bureau in Los Angeles. Elizabeth -- Bernie Sanders had a big night in California. So I guess that's the sort of silver lining in an otherwise, big night for Joe Biden?
EL: That's right. Bernie Sanders has been the front runner in California and continues to be popular here. and there are many reasons why that is the case. First of all, he's very familiar with California, and the people who live here know him very well. He campaigned here in 2016, very popular then, and from that experience he's really established a movement here in California. and this time his strategy is also just really tackling the grassroots. He has a lot of volunteers who knocked on doors for him, phone banked for him. They are passionate about Bernie Sanders. and they say that he is a movement, those who support him are largely millennial voters, young voters, and many Latino voters really favor Bernie Sanders. They say they like his message of universal healthcare, free college tuition. And they also feel that the establishment, the traditional Democratic Party failed them. and they're holding the party accountable for Donald Trump being in the White House, so they say they want a change. they want something different, and they feel that Bernie Sanders is that answer.
JM: Now, as we heard from Carolyn in Texas, Elizabeth-- we had a late surge for Biden in Texas. Did you sense any sort of last minute, sort of, uptick in support in California for Joe Biden?
EL: Those that I spoke to, at the polls yesterday, all were mostly Sanders supporters and a few Warren supporters. Now California is known to be a more progressive state, perhaps more progressive than the middle of the country or the south of the country. So, mainly Sanders supporters, not so much Biden. But again, there are some moderates in California. and I spoke to a couple who say they like Sanders ideas, but they think it's too pie in the sky, they don't think it's realistic. And for those people, they're undecided but they could be swayed towards voting for a more moderate candidate like Joe Biden.
JM: Yeah, I was gonna ask you about that. in 2016 democrats had trouble patching up the differences in their party. and the Sanders voters you talked to --would they be willing to support the nominee if it's Joe Biden down the line?
EL: At the end of the day, what they all have in common, all the democrats here including Sanders supporters, is that they want somebody other than Trump in the White House. So they said yes, if Biden becomes the nominee for the Democratic Party they will vote for him or whoever becomes the nominee. Because they don't like the current system. they think it's broken. And they believe that Democrats will be the answer to fixing that broken system.
JM: And finally, did you did you get a sense of how energized Democratic voters were? I mean, California is unusual. a lot of people do vote early by mail and you're going to be counting those votes for the next several days. But do you sense that Democratic voters are energized, not only for the primary but for the upcoming general election in November?
EL: Yes, they are definitely energized. People were waiting in line for two to four hours yesterday to cast their vote. People are excited. And there are people, because as you mentioned, who voted early, because polls have been, voting centers have been open for more than a week, and some even 24 hours a day--those who voted for Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg, they voted before super-- well before the two dropped out, suspended, their race, well, it didn't really count. So they are really looking forward to the general elections, when they can again make their vote counts. They're excited. I spoke to some college students and they say they finally feel like perhaps their vote will count, will matter, and also minority votes. One of the precinct captains say they have seen more minority votes this time than four years ago. so there is definitely energy here in California.
JM: All right, VOA’s Elizabeth Lee in Los Angeles. Thanks very much.
(JIM MALONE)
Since president Donald Trump is running virtually unopposed for a second term, Super Tuesday is a foregone conclusion for the Republican party.
But for Democratic candidates who want to beat him in November Super Tuesday was a game changer.
It's the single largest primary voting day: 14 states representing 40% of the US population, deciding which candidate moves closer to the winning number required to receive the nomination.
To explain the Super Tuesday math and the role delegates have in choosing a presidential nominee, here’s Plugged In’s Mil Arcega.
(The Delegate Count)
(Mil Narrates)
Most Super Tuesday voters marked a ballot for a specific presidential candidate.
But those votes actually went to a slate of delegates who have pledged to vote for that candidate at the Democratic Party’s nominating convention in the summer.
Delegates are allocated to each state in proportion to its population.
On Super Tuesday, more than one third of Democratic convention delegates were at stake --- ranging from 415 delegates in California to 16 in Vermont.
(Mil Arcega, Plugged In)
Candidates win pledged delegates in proportion to the votes they get from each state. But, they must reach a 15 percent threshold -- to win any delegates.
With 3,979 total delegates at the Democratic convention, a candidate needs a majority --- 1,991 --- to win the party’s nomination.
If no one reaches that magic number on the convention’s first ballot, unpledged delegates --- a group of 771 party leaders called “super delegates” step in.
Those super delegates, who can endorse any candidate of their choice… have the power to sway the nomination - potentially subverting the candidate with the most support – which could divide Democrats and affect the general election in November.
For Plugged In, I’m Mil Arcega.
(JIM MALONE)
Democrats had been building towards Super Tuesday since July 2017 - when little-known Congressman, John Delaney first announced his intention to run for president.
But that was just the start. All told, a total of 28 Democrats would jostle for attention, votes, and campaign contributions.
But here we are, just a day after Super Tuesday: only five candidates remaining in what is essentially...
a two man race.
Plugged In's Steve Redisch takes a look at where the remaining candidates stand.
(Battle of the Dems)
(Steve Redisch narrates)
Bernie Sanders padded his status as front-runner with his victories in Super Tuesday primaries.
But this is not a runaway race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Joe Biden is not too far behind, having separated from the rest of the pack with a resounding victory last Saturday in South Carolina --- winning the endorsements of two rivals who suspended their campaigns.
Sanders and Biden personify the liberal-moderate division within the Democratic Party.
The US Senator from Vermont is a self-described Democratic Socialist. If elected, he promises significant tax hikes on wealthy Americans, reshaping the U.S. healthcare system to eliminate private health insurance and cut US defense spending while bringing US troops home from post 9/11 deployments.
Biden is considered a centrist within the Democratic Party.
He, too, would raise taxes on the rich, but not to Sanders’ level. On healthcare, Biden wants build on the existing Affordable Care Act and keep private insurance. He says boost the defense budget and strengthen the existing Affordable Care Act program.
Biden ran for president in 1988 and 2008. He was Vice President under Barack Obama.
This is the second try for Sanders to win the presidential nomination, losing to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Two other Democrats --- Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg --- competed in the Super Tuesday primaries but trail Biden and Sanders in the delegate count.
Steve Redisch, VOA News.
(JIM MALONE)
So how much has the political landscape changed? Has the democratic race turned into a war between the progressive versus the establishment wing of the party?
And where does the party go from here?
To help us answer these questions and more, we are joined by two experts with keen insights on the state of American politics.
Penny Lee is a Democratic strategist who served as a political advisor to former US Senator Harry Reid.
She is the former executive director for the Democratic Governors Association.
And David Barker, professor of government at American University here in Washington and director of the university's Center for Congressional & Presidential Studies. He's also an expert in political psychology and voting behavior.
(Jim interviews Penny Lee and David Barker)
JM: Well thank you both very much for being here. I want to get some quick takes on where we are the day after Super Tuesday. Penny, let me start with you.
PL: Let me say that what we saw last night was momentum slash Joe-mentum as they're calling it. Out the money, and without a movement, and you saw just an unbelievable turnaround in the last 72 hours or 24 from South Carolina moving on into Super Tuesday. And you saw a real reversal I mean it was stunning. Joe Biden winning in places like Virginia without any infrastructure whatsoever. I mean not an office, hadn't spent a dime on Monday, you saw record crowds though turnout and saw them turnout for Joe Biden. So you saw a real amazing seismic shift into the voter preference in just a very short time.
JM: David your take.
DB: That's right. So, while in the last 72 hours we saw this dramatic shift in Biden's favor, it’s also kind of interesting that after all these debates and all these different things that have happened over the course of the past year and a half - we are essentially where we thought we would be. If you would have asked somebody three years ago, who will be vying for the nomination on the Democratic side they would have said, probably Biden versus Sanders and Biden would be the front runner, and that's where we are. And I would say at this point Biden's odds of getting the nomination are about three and four.
JM: Wow, that's high. In fact, let's hear from Joe Biden. He was in California last night at a victory celebration, commenting after his big night.
(JOE BIDEN)
“Those who have been knocked down, counted out, left behind - this is your campaign. Just a few days ago the press and the pundits declared the campaign dead. And then came South Carolina, and they had something to say about it. And we’re told when we got to Super Tuesday it would be over. Well it may be over or the other guy.”
JM: So, Penny we have seen this dramatic turnaround on the race. It's only been a few days, it seemed as though Biden's victory in South Carolina really changed the dimension of the race. Let's talk about Bernie Sanders for a minute now. Where does his campaign go from here. We did notice in a number of states that he did well in four years ago, his totals were down a bit this year.
PL: I mean there are still many contested states to contest. We still don't actually know the outcome of California so he actually might be in the delegate lead coming out after all the votes are counted in California. So there's still a lot of states to contest, a lot of delegates to be had to be pledged, so I think he's going to do what he has been doing and that is going out, speaking to his base, speaking out to his supporters, encouraging for them to show up in all these next contests because this race is not over at all.
JM: David, what is your take on the Sanders strategy now from here on out?
DB: Well it has to look similar to what he did in 2016. You know, we've got an insurgent wing of the Democratic Party against the establishment wing. Sanders represents that insurgent wing. They have a lot of enthusiasm, they have a lot of money, they have a lot of people. And so that's what it's going to be from this point on. I think there are significant reasons to suspect that he ultimately is not going to do as well as he did in 2016. For one thing, the fear and loathing of Joe Biden is less than it was of Hillary Clinton. A substantial portion of Sanders support in 2016 is really more anti Hillary than it was pro- Sanders. And the fear and loathing of the current incumbent president is much much greater than it was the former president. And so this is part of what's fueling Biden's comeback and that's going to continue.
JM: And certainly we heard last night from Bernie Sanders at his celebration in Vermont that he's not going anywhere. And he certainly had an energized crowd. Let’s hear a little bit from Bernie Sanders last night.
(BERNIE SANDERS)
“You know it's a funny thing. 31 years ago, today we won the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont.
And we won that race against all of the odds. Everybody said it couldn't be done and when we began this race for the presidency, everybody said it couldn't be done. But tonight, I tell you with absolute confidence, we are going to win the Democratic nomination and we are going to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of this country.”
JM: Bernie Sanders in Vermont last night. Penny Lee, we also had some news on Wednesday, about Michael Bloomberg. He's ending his campaign. He's endorsing Joe Biden, I guess the hits just keep coming for Joe Biden at this point.
PL: And look, what comes with Mike Bloomberg’s endorsement is also an incredible infrastructure behind it. I have gone up to the campaign headquarters and seen all they’ve been doing, and are staying committed until November, which is unprecedented. So to have not only that personal endorsement but for him to have a complete infrastructure behind him, really will, I think, set Joe Biden on a true path to victory.
JM: I mean, David, if you're a Biden fan you can't believe the good fortune that seems to be coming his way. But given the, the tension in the party, and it stems from four years ago with Clinton and Sanders, are there any risks here about exacerbating you know, the strains where it looks like everyone's consolidating for Biden?
DB: Sure. I think that Biden and his surrogates need to be careful about the language that they use and the tack that they take. I think they need to be careful not to start acting overconfident or gloat or talk down to Sanders supporters in particular. I think they need to make some efforts to, I would actually frankly avoid going negative even when Sanders is going negative on him. I would try to be a unifier; try to praise Bernie, try to praise the movement, praise the energy and the idealism,and try to do their best. You know, there's another debate coming up on the 15th. Important states are going to come after that. This time it's going to be a two person debate. So, you know Biden has another chance to blow it. And to see this thing, twist back in the opposite direction. So that'll be fun to watch.
JM: You know, speaking of people weighing in on the Democratic race, we're hearing a lot from President Trump. He's got some opinions, In fact he was talking about it at the White House just the other day.
(President Donald Trump)
“Well I think there's no question. The establishment, the Democratic establishment is trying to take it away from Bernie Sanders, no question about that in my mind.
JM: So that's the president. Likes to fan the flames about this Bernie kind of establishment tension. But where do you see this race going from here I mean, is it likely that one or another candidate will get that majority delegates they need before the convention in July?
PL: I think it's going to be really tough to be able to get that 1991 exact total. Probably what you will have is, until you get to the convention - probably it will be a little bit shy of that. But once you get to the floor and that first vote is taken, that is a critical, critical vote because what you don't want to do is have that second ballot with super delegates and others influencing the decision and have it to be a pure vote. So what you'll probably see at that point is Klobuchars or Pete Buttigiegs just begin to shift their pledges and be able to put them into or have them coalesce around a certain person. I would say with his endorsement probably more likely Biden than not. And so that's when you really want to have that defining vote, whether or not you lean into, whether or not you have it going in. But again remember what Sanders just said in that last debate which was whoever has the plurality, because he thought it was going to be him - should be the nominee. So it puts an interesting twist into the whole delegate count.
JM: David, I wonder if that still holds if Joe Biden is leading the delegate count heading into the convention.
DB: Yeah, I think it has to. And again just to reiterate the odds of Biden getting a majority are pretty slim. But the odds of him having a reasonably significant plurality, and then picking up those delegates from Bloomberg from Buttigieg and the few delegates that Klobuchar had - that should be enough to put him over the top, without any super delegates having to get involved. And that is critical for the party not being completely at war with itself, heading into the fall. I think that that the Sanders troops will accept a Biden nomination, that is that is based on pledged delegates right? Even if they're handed over from the other candidates. What they won't accept is a Biden nomination that's based on super delegates even in part.
JM: Now, the next few weeks we've got some large states voting: Michigan, Florida, Ohio Illinois. What's the outlook in terms of a Biden/Sanders race in a lot of these states?
PL: There are some states, you know, we were just looking at prior to coming on. Sanders has won Michigan last time. Hillary won, Illinois. So, I think he has some challenges in Florida and some other states. And so it's going to be really interesting to see what his coalition is going to be west of the Mississippi. He seemed to be doing better, especially with Hispanic votes, so Arizona is going to be an interesting race for him. So I think it's going to be hotly contested, and I think it's going to be a spirited debate. But what I do know at the end is that the Democratic Party is committed to being unified and beating Donald Trump.
JM: David, how does this change the calculations in the minute or so we have left for the Trump campaign. Now that they're seeing this shift, obviously they would prefer Sanders it looks like. Now Biden has a stronger chance I mean, how do they reevaluate?
DB: I mean I don't think it's a dramatic difference. I mean a Trump to some degree has been running against Biden for a while now. And I do think some of the rhetoric is a little bit different, you know, maybe you soften the socialism attacks a little bit. But I think that we're going to see is a nastier, more personal campaign on the part of the Trump camp - Trump team. We're going to see a lot more supposedly corrupt Joe, a lot more references to Ukraine, they're going to try to turn that into Hillary's emails. And, you know, for his base right, for that roughly 45% of the country at this point, it'll probably work, right? And so we can expect a pretty personal campaign in the fall.
Well, I want to thank both of you, democratic strategist Penny Lee and political scientist David Barker for sorting this out, it's been a big few days here in American politics, and we really appreciate your guidance. Thank you very much.
(GOODBYE)
That's all the time we have for today.
Stay Plugged In by liking us on Facebook at Voice of America, or follow us on YouTube...
and on Greta's Facebook page...
I'm Jim Malone...
Thanks for watching...
and thanks for being Plugged In.
The shrinking Democratic presidential field…
14 states …
Representing nearly 40% of the voting public…
In play…
on the single largest day…
of primary voting…
Are Democrats…
Starting to unify…
Behind one candidate?
Who has the best chance…
of defeating…
President Trump?
And who will be next…
To drop out of the race?
Our correspondents…
and political experts…
weigh in…
On Plugged In:
“America Votes – Super Tuesday”
(WELCOME)
Hello and welcome to a special election edition of Plugged in. I'm Jim Malone filling in for Greta Van Susteren.
It was a night of high drama for the Democratic Party, and a huge comeback for Joe Biden. A Democratic field that began last year with more than two- dozen contenders now appears down to only two: Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
We begin with the latest in what remains a developing story. Primary votes in some states are still being counted, but the biggest take-away after Super Tuesday was the resurgence of Joe Biden and what is now a two man race between the former vice president and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
To help us unpack the Super Tuesday results, we have VOA reporters standing by in two of the key states.
Elizabeth Lee in the Southwestern state of California, where over 400 delegates are in play and Carolyn Presutti in Texas, where 228 delegates will be divvied up among qualifying candidates.
We begin with Carolyn, who has been covering primary voters in the lone star state. She joins us from Fort Worth.
(Jim Malone interviews Carolyn Presutti)
JM: Carolyn, you had quite a race down there in Texas.
CP: Absolutely. It was much closer than anyone thought. It proved the pundits wrong and actually, it proved the polls wrong too. and from when I spoke with the voters it's attributed to two things - Joe Biden surge one, because of these huge win in South Carolina, the Saturday before Super Tuesday. And two, because of the rally he held here in Dallas.
Now, his first rally was with one of his rivals, former South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. And then within the hour, he showed up at another rally with another rival - it was Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Now both Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsed Biden, so a lot of their voters went over to the Biden camp. And when Klobuchar introduced Biden, she said, “this is a candidate who will put our country back together to heal.” And that was mirrored by a lot of the voters that I talked to. They said that they want to get back to politics as usual. They don't really want to see reform. they want someone with a track record, and hence they were voting for Joe Biden.
But you know, Jim, Biden has some issues that he has to deal with. And one is the younger vote. At that rally with Klobuchar I spoke with three people at the front of the line. And actually the line wrapped around a Dallas ballroom several times. So there were a lot of people coming out to see Biden and to hear Biden. But the three at the top of the line were college freshmen. And I said to them, wait a second. Where's everybody else? Where's everybody from your dorm floor? Where's all your buddies? and they said well they're voting for Sanders. and I said, Why aren't you? and they said, Well, you know, we know that not everything is free. health care for all and free college, we know that there has to be a catch there. and so they said we face reality and that's why we're going with Biden.
On the other hand, Biden does have an issue too. He's not getting the African American vote here in Texas. I spoke with a couple of African American voters yesterday at a polling location. One man rode the bus and he said he didn't care how long he waited, he was going to put in his vote, his vote for Biden, he said because President Obama chose Biden, and he said, “that was a man who had good judgment, and that's why I'm voting for Biden.”
(crosstalk)
JM: Carolyn you were on the ground in the final days there. Could you actually feel it shifting from Bernie Sanders to Biden?
CP: Absolutely. Because it was those endorsements that were key. The people that had previously supported, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, the Senator from Minnesota, they were switching over to the Biden camp. And you could feel the excitement in the room too, during the rallies the night before Super Tuesday.
JM: What were democrats looking- the people you talked to-- what are they looking for in a candidate to take on President Trump in November? What was their number one priority?
CP: That's it, though. You said it. they want somebody who can beat President Trump, that's their number one mission. I spoke to somebody who wouldn’t tell me who he voted for, but he said to me, “no socialist is ever going to be beat anyone in this country, and that being of course a reference to self- described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders.
JM: So just briefly Carolyn to wrap up. It was in fact a close race but this latest surge from Biden starting in South Carolina last Saturday, really seemed to have turned the tide in Texas, a key state in terms of the Democratic primary?
CP: Absolutely. We are definitely a key state here, with 228 delegates up for grabs. Everyone wanted to crisscross Texas, everyone wanted to get their votes here.
JM: ((Crosstalk)) Did you get a sense that—
CP: and you know Texas came out in full force—
JM: Did you get a sense that Democratic voters were engaged and turned out in strong numbers in this primary?
CP: Absolutely. I didn't have anyone that I talked to say to me, “I'm going to decide in the voting booth, or I decided in the voting booth.” they knew walking into the polling place who they were going to vote for it. they were, they had already made up their minds. and they did come out in full force. you know, four years ago in 2016 for the Democratic primary here in Texas, one and a half million people voted, we had more than 2 million vote on Super Tuesday this year.
CP: All right, Carolyn Presutti in Fort Worth thanks so much for that.
(JIM MALONE)
Ballots are still being counted in California, which is by far the largest of the 14 Super Tuesday states.
415 delegates will be awarded proportionately to candidates who reach the required threshold of at least 15 percent of the votes. It appears right now that Sanders is leading in that state.
(Jim Malone interviews Elizabeth Lee)
JM: We’re joined by VOA’s Elizabeth Lee, who’s been covering that primary race. She's with us from our Bureau in Los Angeles. Elizabeth -- Bernie Sanders had a big night in California. So I guess that's the sort of silver lining in an otherwise, big night for Joe Biden?
EL: That's right. Bernie Sanders has been the front runner in California and continues to be popular here. and there are many reasons why that is the case. First of all, he's very familiar with California, and the people who live here know him very well. He campaigned here in 2016, very popular then, and from that experience he's really established a movement here in California. and this time his strategy is also just really tackling the grassroots. He has a lot of volunteers who knocked on doors for him, phone banked for him. They are passionate about Bernie Sanders. and they say that he is a movement, those who support him are largely millennial voters, young voters, and many Latino voters really favor Bernie Sanders. They say they like his message of universal healthcare, free college tuition. And they also feel that the establishment, the traditional Democratic Party failed them. and they're holding the party accountable for Donald Trump being in the White House, so they say they want a change. they want something different, and they feel that Bernie Sanders is that answer.
JM: Now, as we heard from Carolyn in Texas, Elizabeth-- we had a late surge for Biden in Texas. Did you sense any sort of last minute, sort of, uptick in support in California for Joe Biden?
EL: Those that I spoke to, at the polls yesterday, all were mostly Sanders supporters and a few Warren supporters. Now California is known to be a more progressive state, perhaps more progressive than the middle of the country or the south of the country. So, mainly Sanders supporters, not so much Biden. But again, there are some moderates in California. and I spoke to a couple who say they like Sanders ideas, but they think it's too pie in the sky, they don't think it's realistic. And for those people, they're undecided but they could be swayed towards voting for a more moderate candidate like Joe Biden.
JM: Yeah, I was gonna ask you about that. in 2016 democrats had trouble patching up the differences in their party. and the Sanders voters you talked to --would they be willing to support the nominee if it's Joe Biden down the line?
EL: At the end of the day, what they all have in common, all the democrats here including Sanders supporters, is that they want somebody other than Trump in the White House. So they said yes, if Biden becomes the nominee for the Democratic Party they will vote for him or whoever becomes the nominee. Because they don't like the current system. they think it's broken. And they believe that Democrats will be the answer to fixing that broken system.
JM: And finally, did you did you get a sense of how energized Democratic voters were? I mean, California is unusual. a lot of people do vote early by mail and you're going to be counting those votes for the next several days. But do you sense that Democratic voters are energized, not only for the primary but for the upcoming general election in November?
EL: Yes, they are definitely energized. People were waiting in line for two to four hours yesterday to cast their vote. People are excited. And there are people, because as you mentioned, who voted early, because polls have been, voting centers have been open for more than a week, and some even 24 hours a day--those who voted for Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg, they voted before super-- well before the two dropped out, suspended, their race, well, it didn't really count. So they are really looking forward to the general elections, when they can again make their vote counts. They're excited. I spoke to some college students and they say they finally feel like perhaps their vote will count, will matter, and also minority votes. One of the precinct captains say they have seen more minority votes this time than four years ago. so there is definitely energy here in California.
JM: All right, VOA’s Elizabeth Lee in Los Angeles. Thanks very much.
(JIM MALONE)
Since president Donald Trump is running virtually unopposed for a second term, Super Tuesday is a foregone conclusion for the Republican party.
But for Democratic candidates who want to beat him in November Super Tuesday was a game changer.
It's the single largest primary voting day: 14 states representing 40% of the US population, deciding which candidate moves closer to the winning number required to receive the nomination.
To explain the Super Tuesday math and the role delegates have in choosing a presidential nominee, here’s Plugged In’s Mil Arcega.
(The Delegate Count)
(Mil Narrates)
Most Super Tuesday voters marked a ballot for a specific presidential candidate.
But those votes actually went to a slate of delegates who have pledged to vote for that candidate at the Democratic Party’s nominating convention in the summer.
Delegates are allocated to each state in proportion to its population.
On Super Tuesday, more than one third of Democratic convention delegates were at stake --- ranging from 415 delegates in California to 16 in Vermont.
(Mil Arcega, Plugged In)
Candidates win pledged delegates in proportion to the votes they get from each state. But, they must reach a 15 percent threshold -- to win any delegates.
With 3,979 total delegates at the Democratic convention, a candidate needs a majority --- 1,991 --- to win the party’s nomination.
If no one reaches that magic number on the convention’s first ballot, unpledged delegates --- a group of 771 party leaders called “super delegates” step in.
Those super delegates, who can endorse any candidate of their choice… have the power to sway the nomination - potentially subverting the candidate with the most support – which could divide Democrats and affect the general election in November.
For Plugged In, I’m Mil Arcega.
(JIM MALONE)
Democrats had been building towards Super Tuesday since July 2017 - when little-known Congressman, John Delaney first announced his intention to run for president.
But that was just the start. All told, a total of 28 Democrats would jostle for attention, votes, and campaign contributions.
But here we are, just a day after Super Tuesday: only five candidates remaining in what is essentially...
a two man race.
Plugged In's Steve Redisch takes a look at where the remaining candidates stand.
(Battle of the Dems)
(Steve Redisch narrates)
Bernie Sanders padded his status as front-runner with his victories in Super Tuesday primaries.
But this is not a runaway race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Joe Biden is not too far behind, having separated from the rest of the pack with a resounding victory last Saturday in South Carolina --- winning the endorsements of two rivals who suspended their campaigns.
Sanders and Biden personify the liberal-moderate division within the Democratic Party.
The US Senator from Vermont is a self-described Democratic Socialist. If elected, he promises significant tax hikes on wealthy Americans, reshaping the U.S. healthcare system to eliminate private health insurance and cut US defense spending while bringing US troops home from post 9/11 deployments.
Biden is considered a centrist within the Democratic Party.
He, too, would raise taxes on the rich, but not to Sanders’ level. On healthcare, Biden wants build on the existing Affordable Care Act and keep private insurance. He says boost the defense budget and strengthen the existing Affordable Care Act program.
Biden ran for president in 1988 and 2008. He was Vice President under Barack Obama.
This is the second try for Sanders to win the presidential nomination, losing to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Two other Democrats --- Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg --- competed in the Super Tuesday primaries but trail Biden and Sanders in the delegate count.
Steve Redisch, VOA News.
(JIM MALONE)
So how much has the political landscape changed? Has the democratic race turned into a war between the progressive versus the establishment wing of the party?
And where does the party go from here?
To help us answer these questions and more, we are joined by two experts with keen insights on the state of American politics.
Penny Lee is a Democratic strategist who served as a political advisor to former US Senator Harry Reid.
She is the former executive director for the Democratic Governors Association.
And David Barker, professor of government at American University here in Washington and director of the university's Center for Congressional & Presidential Studies. He's also an expert in political psychology and voting behavior.
(Jim interviews Penny Lee and David Barker)
JM: Well thank you both very much for being here. I want to get some quick takes on where we are the day after Super Tuesday. Penny, let me start with you.
PL: Let me say that what we saw last night was momentum slash Joe-mentum as they're calling it. Out the money, and without a movement, and you saw just an unbelievable turnaround in the last 72 hours or 24 from South Carolina moving on into Super Tuesday. And you saw a real reversal I mean it was stunning. Joe Biden winning in places like Virginia without any infrastructure whatsoever. I mean not an office, hadn't spent a dime on Monday, you saw record crowds though turnout and saw them turnout for Joe Biden. So you saw a real amazing seismic shift into the voter preference in just a very short time.
JM: David your take.
DB: That's right. So, while in the last 72 hours we saw this dramatic shift in Biden's favor, it’s also kind of interesting that after all these debates and all these different things that have happened over the course of the past year and a half - we are essentially where we thought we would be. If you would have asked somebody three years ago, who will be vying for the nomination on the Democratic side they would have said, probably Biden versus Sanders and Biden would be the front runner, and that's where we are. And I would say at this point Biden's odds of getting the nomination are about three and four.
JM: Wow, that's high. In fact, let's hear from Joe Biden. He was in California last night at a victory celebration, commenting after his big night.
(JOE BIDEN)
“Those who have been knocked down, counted out, left behind - this is your campaign. Just a few days ago the press and the pundits declared the campaign dead. And then came South Carolina, and they had something to say about it. And we’re told when we got to Super Tuesday it would be over. Well it may be over or the other guy.”
JM: So, Penny we have seen this dramatic turnaround on the race. It's only been a few days, it seemed as though Biden's victory in South Carolina really changed the dimension of the race. Let's talk about Bernie Sanders for a minute now. Where does his campaign go from here. We did notice in a number of states that he did well in four years ago, his totals were down a bit this year.
PL: I mean there are still many contested states to contest. We still don't actually know the outcome of California so he actually might be in the delegate lead coming out after all the votes are counted in California. So there's still a lot of states to contest, a lot of delegates to be had to be pledged, so I think he's going to do what he has been doing and that is going out, speaking to his base, speaking out to his supporters, encouraging for them to show up in all these next contests because this race is not over at all.
JM: David, what is your take on the Sanders strategy now from here on out?
DB: Well it has to look similar to what he did in 2016. You know, we've got an insurgent wing of the Democratic Party against the establishment wing. Sanders represents that insurgent wing. They have a lot of enthusiasm, they have a lot of money, they have a lot of people. And so that's what it's going to be from this point on. I think there are significant reasons to suspect that he ultimately is not going to do as well as he did in 2016. For one thing, the fear and loathing of Joe Biden is less than it was of Hillary Clinton. A substantial portion of Sanders support in 2016 is really more anti Hillary than it was pro- Sanders. And the fear and loathing of the current incumbent president is much much greater than it was the former president. And so this is part of what's fueling Biden's comeback and that's going to continue.
JM: And certainly we heard last night from Bernie Sanders at his celebration in Vermont that he's not going anywhere. And he certainly had an energized crowd. Let’s hear a little bit from Bernie Sanders last night.
(BERNIE SANDERS)
“You know it's a funny thing. 31 years ago, today we won the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont.
And we won that race against all of the odds. Everybody said it couldn't be done and when we began this race for the presidency, everybody said it couldn't be done. But tonight, I tell you with absolute confidence, we are going to win the Democratic nomination and we are going to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of this country.”
JM: Bernie Sanders in Vermont last night. Penny Lee, we also had some news on Wednesday, about Michael Bloomberg. He's ending his campaign. He's endorsing Joe Biden, I guess the hits just keep coming for Joe Biden at this point.
PL: And look, what comes with Mike Bloomberg’s endorsement is also an incredible infrastructure behind it. I have gone up to the campaign headquarters and seen all they’ve been doing, and are staying committed until November, which is unprecedented. So to have not only that personal endorsement but for him to have a complete infrastructure behind him, really will, I think, set Joe Biden on a true path to victory.
JM: I mean, David, if you're a Biden fan you can't believe the good fortune that seems to be coming his way. But given the, the tension in the party, and it stems from four years ago with Clinton and Sanders, are there any risks here about exacerbating you know, the strains where it looks like everyone's consolidating for Biden?
DB: Sure. I think that Biden and his surrogates need to be careful about the language that they use and the tack that they take. I think they need to be careful not to start acting overconfident or gloat or talk down to Sanders supporters in particular. I think they need to make some efforts to, I would actually frankly avoid going negative even when Sanders is going negative on him. I would try to be a unifier; try to praise Bernie, try to praise the movement, praise the energy and the idealism,and try to do their best. You know, there's another debate coming up on the 15th. Important states are going to come after that. This time it's going to be a two person debate. So, you know Biden has another chance to blow it. And to see this thing, twist back in the opposite direction. So that'll be fun to watch.
JM: You know, speaking of people weighing in on the Democratic race, we're hearing a lot from President Trump. He's got some opinions, In fact he was talking about it at the White House just the other day.
(President Donald Trump)
“Well I think there's no question. The establishment, the Democratic establishment is trying to take it away from Bernie Sanders, no question about that in my mind.
JM: So that's the president. Likes to fan the flames about this Bernie kind of establishment tension. But where do you see this race going from here I mean, is it likely that one or another candidate will get that majority delegates they need before the convention in July?
PL: I think it's going to be really tough to be able to get that 1991 exact total. Probably what you will have is, until you get to the convention - probably it will be a little bit shy of that. But once you get to the floor and that first vote is taken, that is a critical, critical vote because what you don't want to do is have that second ballot with super delegates and others influencing the decision and have it to be a pure vote. So what you'll probably see at that point is Klobuchars or Pete Buttigiegs just begin to shift their pledges and be able to put them into or have them coalesce around a certain person. I would say with his endorsement probably more likely Biden than not. And so that's when you really want to have that defining vote, whether or not you lean into, whether or not you have it going in. But again remember what Sanders just said in that last debate which was whoever has the plurality, because he thought it was going to be him - should be the nominee. So it puts an interesting twist into the whole delegate count.
JM: David, I wonder if that still holds if Joe Biden is leading the delegate count heading into the convention.
DB: Yeah, I think it has to. And again just to reiterate the odds of Biden getting a majority are pretty slim. But the odds of him having a reasonably significant plurality, and then picking up those delegates from Bloomberg from Buttigieg and the few delegates that Klobuchar had - that should be enough to put him over the top, without any super delegates having to get involved. And that is critical for the party not being completely at war with itself, heading into the fall. I think that that the Sanders troops will accept a Biden nomination, that is that is based on pledged delegates right? Even if they're handed over from the other candidates. What they won't accept is a Biden nomination that's based on super delegates even in part.
JM: Now, the next few weeks we've got some large states voting: Michigan, Florida, Ohio Illinois. What's the outlook in terms of a Biden/Sanders race in a lot of these states?
PL: There are some states, you know, we were just looking at prior to coming on. Sanders has won Michigan last time. Hillary won, Illinois. So, I think he has some challenges in Florida and some other states. And so it's going to be really interesting to see what his coalition is going to be west of the Mississippi. He seemed to be doing better, especially with Hispanic votes, so Arizona is going to be an interesting race for him. So I think it's going to be hotly contested, and I think it's going to be a spirited debate. But what I do know at the end is that the Democratic Party is committed to being unified and beating Donald Trump.
JM: David, how does this change the calculations in the minute or so we have left for the Trump campaign. Now that they're seeing this shift, obviously they would prefer Sanders it looks like. Now Biden has a stronger chance I mean, how do they reevaluate?
DB: I mean I don't think it's a dramatic difference. I mean a Trump to some degree has been running against Biden for a while now. And I do think some of the rhetoric is a little bit different, you know, maybe you soften the socialism attacks a little bit. But I think that we're going to see is a nastier, more personal campaign on the part of the Trump camp - Trump team. We're going to see a lot more supposedly corrupt Joe, a lot more references to Ukraine, they're going to try to turn that into Hillary's emails. And, you know, for his base right, for that roughly 45% of the country at this point, it'll probably work, right? And so we can expect a pretty personal campaign in the fall.
Well, I want to thank both of you, democratic strategist Penny Lee and political scientist David Barker for sorting this out, it's been a big few days here in American politics, and we really appreciate your guidance. Thank you very much.
(GOODBYE)
That's all the time we have for today.
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