On Plugged In…
Fear is spreading…
from Asia to Europe…
and the Middle East…
As coronavirus cases…
surge outside China…
Beijing postpones…
A key political event…
And the White House…
Seeks emergency funding…
From Congress.
(ALEX AZAR HHS Secretary)
“We do have in the strategic national stockpile, ventilators, we have masks, we have… Enough? Well, of course not, or we wouldn’t be asking for supplementals to seek more money to procure more of that.”
This...
As panic drives global stocks…
Into the red…
Is the world on the verge…
of a worldwide pandemic?
On Plugged In…
“Coronavirus:
Global Outbreak"
Hello and welcome to Plugged in. I'm Greta Van Susteren.
It is not going away.
Cases of the Corona Virus, also known as COVID-19 have reached 80,000 worldwide - with more than 2600 deaths.
The numbers are still rising.
Infections outside China have risen dramatically. In South Korea, more than 800 cases reported.
And In Italy, more than 200 reported.
Here in the United States, the White House is asking Congress for 2.5 billion dollars in emergency funds.
And this outbreak has roiled financial markets around the world.
First, a look at global efforts to control the outbreak. It has not been perfect.
Various countries are finding their own ways to deal with the health crisis.
But my next guest says there are critical lessons to be learned.
Dr. Leana Wen is a visiting professor on Health Policy and Management at George Washington University.
She served as Health Commissioner for the city of Baltimore.
In 2019, she was named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People for her work on public health emergencies.
GVS: Welcome to Plugged In.
LW: Nice to join you thank you.
GVS: So let's start first the United States. How is the United States doing in trying to contain or address the coronavirus?
LW: So far the US response has been very strong. The US has heeded the advice of public health officials and acted with an abundance of caution. Much better to overreact then to under react, although we are at a turning point now. Now we have more than 40 countries that have this novel coronavirus COVID-19. There are cases of community transmission in these countries and likely there's also pretty significant undercounting, which means that there are people now traveling all over the world who probably have COVID-19. And it's only a matter of time before we see an outbreak here in the US.
GVS: All right, how do we, how do you contain it other than just not let anybody in? I mean, and that sounds shocking.
LW: Well, in the beginning, when COVID-19 was just in, mainly in Wuhan, China and specifically in China, it was possible to restrict travel as a way to delay the entrance of the virus in the US. And again the US was doing a very good job of this with only 14 known cases to date. But now that this virus is in more than 40 countries, that type of travel restriction is just not going to work anymore. And again, I think that there is a significant under-counting going on because now we know that many patients with this new coronavirus have minimal symptoms or no symptoms. And that even if you don't have symptoms you could still be transmitting it to other people. So that's why we do have to switch to a new way of seeing the virus that it's now past the time of containing and quarantining, which we should still continue to trace and test, but we have to get to a new phase in terms of the response to what's likely a pandemic.
GVS: But what could be their response, if I'm showing no symptoms, and I have the coronavirus, I can still pass it to you, right? I can still pass it to you. I get on an airplane, right? I mean, like, how does a country protect itself from that, or even another passenger on the plane?
LW: These are great questions and there is a lot that we still don't yet know about coronavirus. We have to remember that the new Corona virus started or it came to be just about two months ago, and we're still learning more about how infectious it is how severe the outbreaks are. Now we think that the fatality rate is about 2%, but it may be actually be lower than that, if there are a lot of cases among people with no symptoms. So, it may end up being that the coronavirus is more like the seasonal flu, influenza…
GVS: Of which therea are many thousands of deaths on the right from the flu.
LW: That's right, it's still for the risk for everyday Americans now we have to emphasize for influenza is much higher. There are tens of thousands of people who die from influenza each year in the US alone. But the way that we manage it for ourselves, is we still should do really good hand washing. Something that's that simple as washing our hands with hot water and soap that reduces the rate of transmission of influenza and other viruses like coronavirus by more than 50 to 60%.
GVS: Well how do we know if we're even, whether we're panicking, if so many people die from the flu influenza. And if that can be even numbers greater than what turns out to be than the coronavirus, how do we know if we're not just sending yourselves into a huge panic.
LW: It's very hard when there are new diseases, diseases in general, cause fear and upsets, but when there's something that's new and we don't yet know the trajectory of where it's going, it is natural to fear the unknown, but this is why the transparency of government officials is so critical. Public Health hinges on public trust, and people have to be able to trust that their government is telling the truth, and that the government has their best interests at heart. And that's why again I think the US response has been good because changes are to be expected, but the government has been saying, Here's why we're making decisions that we are, here's what the changes are, and I do hope that China and other governments will follow in the same way and be transparent.
GVS: Has China, in your opinion been transparent and what is the origin of this virus? Is it truly from, you know, an animal or could this be a weapon? Could this be…what is the origin of this virus?
LW: All the evidence is pointing to animal to human transmission. That’s the best evidence.
HVS: Why didn’t we have it last year, why didn't we have coronavirus if it’s from an animal to human. Why now as opposed to last year?
LW: We had SARS before we had MERS before that were also coronaviruses that were transmitted from animal to human. The fact is that pandemics can happen at any point. Right now it's COVID-19. Next year, or in two years from now, it could be something else. And that underscores the importance of preparedness. I am really worried about countries that have fragile states, that have weak health care systems that already cannot take care of their citizens and their healthcare needs. Something like a pandemic could really overwhelm their healthcare system. And authoritarian regimes that don't do well with transparency. I am also really worried about the, the value of trust that their citizens may have in their government.
GVS: Alright, getting vaccines for flu’s. About 25 or 20% effective last year 45% effective this year. I'm reading at, you know, and this is what I’m reading. I'd like 100%, I get a flu shot but how fast can we begin, how fast does it take to develop a vaccine, and can we necessarily really develop one for the COVID-19, corona?
LW: Work is underway to start developing a vaccine for COVID-19. But that will take months, if not years. It may take well over a year for a vaccine to be developed and we can't count on that. Because the disease is spreading rapidly right now. That's why public health measures like personal public health measures as in stay at home while you're saying almost washing your hands really well, that's really important. But we also have to count on our government institutions to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
GVS: So it's a joint effort. People and the government everybody working on this one. Dr. Leana Wen, thank you very much…visiting professor at George Washington University.
(GRETA)
Following closely behind China and Korea, in terms of the total number of coronavirus cases is the Diamond Princess. That is the cruise ship where more than 690 passengers, including 36 Americans tested positive for the virus.
All 690 passengers were placed in quarantine, including my next guest - Gay Courter. Ms. Courter remains isolated with her husband and other infected Americans at a military compound in Texas. She joins us by Skype from Lackland Air Force Base...
GVS: Thank you for joining us. I can't imagine what it's like to be quarantined, but is there a way to describe the difference between your quarantine on the ship and your quarantine now?
GC: Well, on the ship, it was a posher penitentiary with beautifully catered foods, lots of desserts that were over the top. I think they were trying to do death by chocolate, but it was not a safe place to be, obviously. The numbers that went from one to 10 now up to over, almost 700. And we knew very early on that it wasn't safe. So for us, the big worry was are we next to get the virus? Here in Texas, we're in rather stark, old-fashioned motel rooms with a joint bathroom. We are not supposed to go outside, although we do go outside, a little bit with our masks on and staying away from other people, because otherwise we’d lose our minds. But it's certainly only 10 or 20 minutes here and there during the day, and very little. We try to respect all the rules, and everybody else does too.
GVS: Alright March 3rd, is I understand that you complete your quarantine, but are you worried. I mean, I don’t want to scare you, but people can be contagious and pass the virus without showing any symptoms and naturally you've been, you flew with the people to the United States and you've been with them.
GC: Well, first of all, we've had no contact with anybody since we've been here. Anybody who interacts with us is fully gowned in hazmat type suits and masks and shields and full body covering. So we haven't been able to infect anybody and we don't get near each other. So this is a real harsh, but correct quarantine. And the numbers of people who've shown up infected here have been very low, only four or five cases, depending how you look at the numbers, which would be expected to have happened just in the transfer and what we might be harboring on the ship. We check for symptoms twice a day and we've had a full throat, a nose swab testing, both here and in Japan. And when we complete our 14 days we're told there were absolutely symptom free, and we're not carrying the virus. So that's, you know, the good news we can go home, we'll have a security certificate of health, but the only way they could guarantee that was being in a very harsh quarantine.
GVS: In terms of, you have no symptoms that's great news, so once you leave you’re symptom free. How did they did they, do they do daily swabs? Is that how they do that, I mean, how are they testing you.
GC: The only accurate test, I mean there's an indicator if your temperature rises and then they do more testing. But the only accurate test as we understand it, are two types of swabs: one down the throat and one very unpleasant one in the nose. Because apparently the nasal passages harbor the virus. But we've been tested with the swabs and the throat both in Japan and here, and also the nasal. And as of yesterday we got paperwork saying we were free. Now that doesn't mean if there was some way to catch it today or if we were harboring it. But the end of knowing is 14 days and that's why they've been very strict about the 14 days.
GVS: Obviously, this has caught everybody by surprise. And all these nations by surprise. Do you have any sort of thoughts on the response on the ship and how they just generally you know, do give high marks to the United States, how its responded to Americans who, who are on that ship?
GC: Well, initially, you know there was one man, one case that he got off the ship about I believe it was January, 25, perhaps, I’m a little confused on my dates, but he, and then, but they didn't find out on the ship about it for another week. Which turned out they found out just a day before we were supposed to disembark. And immediately they went around. The Japanese authorities came on board and they went around testing our temperatures and, and then put us in quarantine and started to take anybody with fever off the ship or other flu like symptoms. They tried very hard, but nobody knew anything and you know this is as you say, this was some viruses only six weeks old. They were, they started all this virus didn't even have a name. It was just the new virus. So, the ship probably made some initial mistakes by letting us mingle for a first day or two before we were quarantined. And I'm sure that spread it but while we were in quarantine the numbers would go from 10 to 20 to 60 to 80 hundred a day. And how was that happening with us never leaving our rooms? So there's some vector on the ship nobody even knows about today. And of course we were being tended to by a crew that was not technically in quarantine. And perhaps they were the one’s spreading it. But very quickly, we figured out, we were not safe on the ship.
GVS: Well, it sounds, I mean, it’s like the whole thing is, you know I mean I regret that anybody's had to go through this and that sounds I mean, I wish that March 3rd can advance pretty quickly for you so you can get out of there.
GC: Well, that's what we did. We started talking to people at home and mounted really a campaign, saying get us the hell off this ship, and we pled, so the government said get us out of here. You move the corona-exposed people from Wuhan that are Americans and move us…
GVS: And I'm sorry I gotta go but thank you very much Gay and good luck.
GC: Well, thanks! We're glad to be here.
GVS: Thank you.
(GRETA)
Outside China, South Korea has the unfortunate distinction of having the largest number of coronavirus cases.
It has More than 830 and that number is rising. The biggest surge in cases in South Korea...
has been in their 4th largest city, about 240 kilometers southeast from Seoul. Local authorities are advising residents to stay home.
VOA's Bill Gallo travelled to the city of Daegu, where residents are worried that the virus may be spreading out of control.
(South Korea Coronavirus Havoc)
These Daegu residents have waited since before dawn to buy protective face masks. They’re braving a cold rain and long lines - not ideal conditions for staying healthy. But they feel they have no choice.
(Bill Gallo, VOA News)
“Many people in this line have been several hours to buy face masks. They prefer to buy them at stores like this - large department stores - instead of smaller retail shops, many of which have dramatically raised the price of face masks.”
(Park Chul-soon, Daegu Resident)
“I feel nervous. That’s why I came out early in the morning //// I’d actually like to pay whatever price for a mask, but I can’t find them anywhere (else).”
(Hwang Su-bin, Daegu Resident)
“I could not buy any masks online. And at stores like Costco, masks are all sold out.”
((Lee Jae-hyuk, Daegu Student (male voice, Korean))
“I only leave the house if I have to, like to empty the trash or buy some necessities. And I only talk to my friends over the phone now.”
(NARRATOR)
As coronavirus patients stream in, some hospitals are struggling to keep up. Some are running out of beds.
(Oh Jong-won, Kyungpook National University Hospital)
“Some staff -- particularly the emergency room and initial screening clinic staff - have been working extremely hard. Their fatigue really has accumulated (over the past week).”
((NARRATOR))
At this hospital, officials say they are well-equipped. But it’s a constant struggle to keep the infected patients away from the healthy ones.
On Daegu’s streets, things are quiet, as officials scramble to disinfect areas visited by confirmed coronavirus patients.
Most of the infections have been linked to this fringe religious group, whose operations have largely been shut down.
For global health officials, the South Korean outbreak is worrying.
(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization)
"The sudden increase of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There is a lot of speculation about whether this increase means that this epidemic has now become a pandemic.”
((NARRATOR))
The big worry is: if the virus spreads this fast in a country that has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, what will it do in other countries?
(GRETA)
GVS: Our colleague in South Korea, Bill Gallo joins us on Skype from Seoul. Bill, nice to see you. And today, I mean, you're there. Can you give me sort of an overall view of your impression?
BG: Well, I mean, in many ways, you're seeing a lot of what happened in China as far as people are very scared. They're stockpiling food and masks, in some cases, unnecessarily, in some cases people are doing whatever they think is necessary. However, there are key differences. In China, you had a lot of cities that were locked down, movement restricted, people actually forcibly prevented from going outside, things like that. South Korea is definitely taking another approach. Many people are staying inside but it's because they're being asked to. Leaders are out on the street, sort of urging calm and things like that. But on the other hand, there's a lot of freedom in South Korea, a lot of media reporting, a lot of testing going on, which can in a way make it seem worse, and also perhaps lead to some of the societal issues like panic and things like that
GVS: is Daegu different than Seoul, in terms of when you go there, how it feels in terms of the coronavirus? whether it's the panic level or the response level? Why Daegu?
BG: Daegu is primarily shut down. I mean, there are businesses that are open. it's not completely like a ghost town like you've seen some Chinese cities recently. But there are businesses open. It originally started with a fringe religious group here. There was a 61-year-old woman who attended 2 services and within days this had really ballooned into something that was you know, hundreds of people infected. Authorities are trying to test 200,000 members of that religious group they’re, you know, vigorously hunting them down to search for them actually and test them. But the difference with Seoul is many group events are canceled. So basically any group gathering, whether that's a sporting event, a concert, any type of collective activity has essentially been canceled or postponed indefinitely in Seoul. Many people are wearing masks, though not everyone is in Seoul.
GVS: what about the American -there's some American soldier has now been tested, shown positive for Coronavirus?
BG: Right- the coronavirus has reached us military bases. They’ve enacted tight screening measures. Of course, this is a unique danger for the military community. They live in tight quarters in many cases. they share meals. So US officials and service members are very concerned about this spreading within their barracks.
GVS: Bill, thank you. Bill Gallo, VOA’s Asia correspondent.
(GRETA)
Halfway around the world, parts of Northern Italy are on lockdown.
This, following the deaths of seven people there. And there are growing concerns for the economies in Sub Saharan Africa.
VOA's Henry Ridgwell has more from London.
(Europe Confronts Coronavirus)
At Rome’s famous Trevi fountain tourists are taking no chances.
“Many people virus, so I am scared… (I wear) this mask.”
Further north in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto - the epicentre of the Italian outbreak - several small towns have been put on lockdown.
But with new cases reported in other Italian regions – and in Spain and Switzerland – health authorities are struggling to contain the virus. Scientists say its vital people do all they can do stop its spread.
(Dr. Sterghios Moschos, University of Northumbria)
“The containment procedure is there to effectively dampen down the intensity of transmission and stretch it out to prevent an overload in healthcare settings.”
Iran is one of the worst-affected nations outside China, with hundreds of infections and more than a dozen confirmed deaths. These videos posted on social media appear to show long lines for face masks. VOA could not independently verify their authenticity.
South Korea is also badly hit and the U.S. government has advised against all non-essential travel there.
In China – where the virus first appeared in late December - infections have topped 77,000, with over 2,500 deaths.
(Dr. Sterghios Moschos, University of Northumbria)
“The window of opportunity for stopping this disease from becoming a pandemic is narrowing very fast. We, the entire (medical) community at the moment is anticipating this will eventually develop into a pandemic. However I have to point out that in the past we’ve had similar fears and what has happened is that viruses just died down, die away.”
The global economic cost could hit $360 billion, according to a report from the Overseas Development Institute or ODI, which warns sub-Saharan Africa stands to lose $4 billion in export revenue. South Africa’s lobster industry is in turmoil after China halted imports of seafood.
(FISHERWOMAN, LORRAINE BROWN)
“The factory don't want to take our fish, there's no market for our fish.”
Oil and copper prices are sharply down – and big exporters to China, such as Angola, are suffering.
The ODI says Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the Philippines will be worst hit.
(Sherilynn Raga, Overseas Development Institute)
“Everyone’s looking back at the SARS impact in 2003. But of course if we look back, China is now four times bigger than during the time of the SARS outbreak and it’s more connected to the world now through global value chains, and the manufacturing sector.”
Scientists are racing to produce a vaccine for the virus – with the first human trial scheduled for April. By then the Covid-19 outbreak could be a full pandemic – with serious consequences for national health systems and the global economy. Henry Ridgwell, for VOA News, London.
(GRETA)
The rapid spread of Corona virus has rattled stock markets around the world.
Investors had initially taken the outbreak in stride. Now the outbreak is having an impact on global supply chains, trade, and even tourism. The impact may be more expansive and longer lasting than first thought.
Kathy Bostjancic is the Director of Investor Services at Oxford Economics. She was formerly...
director and chief analyst at the Conference Board and once served as senior economist at Merrill Lynch.
GVS: Welcome to plugged in Kathy. And -- even if your nation does not have a active case of Coronavirus, and that’s good for any nation, there's an impact economically, is there not? And can you give me an idea, give me an assessment of this?
KB: Yes, Greta. It's true. We haven't had a major outbreak in the US. But we can certainly feel the impact of first, you've got supply chains that are affected, as you said. Also, exports both tourism and goods are affected. And we have the financial markets in great turmoil. So that actually resulted in the tightening of financial conditions. And then just the uncertainty. And what we estimate is right now, we probably have a loss of about four tenths of GDP growth in the US. So that's about $50 billion for the US. So that lowers the pace of our estimate for growth to about 1.3%.
GVS: Is-- some of the products, like I mean, the iPhone, you know, products or something from China, you know, we can all live without. But aren't some of the products, is it not going to have an impact pharmaceuticals coming or ingredients to go into pharmaceuticals. It also has a health cost, economic cost to this?
KB: That's right. So these intermediate goods are really the issue. It's not just the finished goods that are exported to the US, but the intermediate goods that could be used in the manufacturing process here in the US, as you said in other maybe health related products as well. So it's quite concerning. The world is much more connected now in terms of global trade and this just in time inventory management, where companies, it was wise economically to have lean inventories. But when you have a shock like this, it really exposes the downside to that type of, you know, management of inventories.
GVS: the global economy seems to be so fragile when it comes to fear and panic. And you don't know how, like, you know, what's legitimate fear and panic and what is not. What can a government do or a world economic organization do to try to sort of put this in this correct perspective, whatever that may be?
KB: Well, I think you hit it on the head when you talked about the idea that it's the steps or maybe the fear of the virus that could cause a lot of the economic damage. We don't really know the full extent of this virus as has been indicated by the previous guests. But the fact that governments are taking pretty aggressive and maybe even crude attempts to contain the virus, it's understandable they do that, but in doing so you're shutting down parts of economies, you know, countries’ economies and economic activity. And then it affects the global chain and interconnectedness of trade. So that, those attempts, again to contain the virus had these, you know, unwanted effects on global trading activity. And that's really the concern. And as you said, we don't know if it's if it's helpful or not, and whether it's panic or not, but the reality is, it hurts the economy in real time.
GVS: obviously when the economy is hurt. I mean, it hurts so many people in so many different ways. But is this elastic? I mean, as as you look at this horror that we're all dealing with now, this coronavirus, is it, are you least satisfied that the economy is elastic and we'll come back?
KB: Well, that's a great point. So the key is how Prolonged the disruption to economic activity is and also how deep. but our expectation is that this is probably going to be somewhat of a temporary effect, something really lasting through the first half of the year. And by the second half of 2020, we should start to see economic activity rebound in many of the economies. And then by 2021, we could get back to more of a normal state. But again, that depends on how protracted you know the spread of the virus Is and the effect that could have.
GVS: Kathy, thank you very much.
KB: My pleasure.
GVS: Kathy Bostjancic, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics.
(GRETA)
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Fear is spreading…
from Asia to Europe…
and the Middle East…
As coronavirus cases…
surge outside China…
Beijing postpones…
A key political event…
And the White House…
Seeks emergency funding…
From Congress.
(ALEX AZAR HHS Secretary)
“We do have in the strategic national stockpile, ventilators, we have masks, we have… Enough? Well, of course not, or we wouldn’t be asking for supplementals to seek more money to procure more of that.”
This...
As panic drives global stocks…
Into the red…
Is the world on the verge…
of a worldwide pandemic?
On Plugged In…
“Coronavirus:
Global Outbreak"
Hello and welcome to Plugged in. I'm Greta Van Susteren.
It is not going away.
Cases of the Corona Virus, also known as COVID-19 have reached 80,000 worldwide - with more than 2600 deaths.
The numbers are still rising.
Infections outside China have risen dramatically. In South Korea, more than 800 cases reported.
And In Italy, more than 200 reported.
Here in the United States, the White House is asking Congress for 2.5 billion dollars in emergency funds.
And this outbreak has roiled financial markets around the world.
First, a look at global efforts to control the outbreak. It has not been perfect.
Various countries are finding their own ways to deal with the health crisis.
But my next guest says there are critical lessons to be learned.
Dr. Leana Wen is a visiting professor on Health Policy and Management at George Washington University.
She served as Health Commissioner for the city of Baltimore.
In 2019, she was named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People for her work on public health emergencies.
GVS: Welcome to Plugged In.
LW: Nice to join you thank you.
GVS: So let's start first the United States. How is the United States doing in trying to contain or address the coronavirus?
LW: So far the US response has been very strong. The US has heeded the advice of public health officials and acted with an abundance of caution. Much better to overreact then to under react, although we are at a turning point now. Now we have more than 40 countries that have this novel coronavirus COVID-19. There are cases of community transmission in these countries and likely there's also pretty significant undercounting, which means that there are people now traveling all over the world who probably have COVID-19. And it's only a matter of time before we see an outbreak here in the US.
GVS: All right, how do we, how do you contain it other than just not let anybody in? I mean, and that sounds shocking.
LW: Well, in the beginning, when COVID-19 was just in, mainly in Wuhan, China and specifically in China, it was possible to restrict travel as a way to delay the entrance of the virus in the US. And again the US was doing a very good job of this with only 14 known cases to date. But now that this virus is in more than 40 countries, that type of travel restriction is just not going to work anymore. And again, I think that there is a significant under-counting going on because now we know that many patients with this new coronavirus have minimal symptoms or no symptoms. And that even if you don't have symptoms you could still be transmitting it to other people. So that's why we do have to switch to a new way of seeing the virus that it's now past the time of containing and quarantining, which we should still continue to trace and test, but we have to get to a new phase in terms of the response to what's likely a pandemic.
GVS: But what could be their response, if I'm showing no symptoms, and I have the coronavirus, I can still pass it to you, right? I can still pass it to you. I get on an airplane, right? I mean, like, how does a country protect itself from that, or even another passenger on the plane?
LW: These are great questions and there is a lot that we still don't yet know about coronavirus. We have to remember that the new Corona virus started or it came to be just about two months ago, and we're still learning more about how infectious it is how severe the outbreaks are. Now we think that the fatality rate is about 2%, but it may be actually be lower than that, if there are a lot of cases among people with no symptoms. So, it may end up being that the coronavirus is more like the seasonal flu, influenza…
GVS: Of which therea are many thousands of deaths on the right from the flu.
LW: That's right, it's still for the risk for everyday Americans now we have to emphasize for influenza is much higher. There are tens of thousands of people who die from influenza each year in the US alone. But the way that we manage it for ourselves, is we still should do really good hand washing. Something that's that simple as washing our hands with hot water and soap that reduces the rate of transmission of influenza and other viruses like coronavirus by more than 50 to 60%.
GVS: Well how do we know if we're even, whether we're panicking, if so many people die from the flu influenza. And if that can be even numbers greater than what turns out to be than the coronavirus, how do we know if we're not just sending yourselves into a huge panic.
LW: It's very hard when there are new diseases, diseases in general, cause fear and upsets, but when there's something that's new and we don't yet know the trajectory of where it's going, it is natural to fear the unknown, but this is why the transparency of government officials is so critical. Public Health hinges on public trust, and people have to be able to trust that their government is telling the truth, and that the government has their best interests at heart. And that's why again I think the US response has been good because changes are to be expected, but the government has been saying, Here's why we're making decisions that we are, here's what the changes are, and I do hope that China and other governments will follow in the same way and be transparent.
GVS: Has China, in your opinion been transparent and what is the origin of this virus? Is it truly from, you know, an animal or could this be a weapon? Could this be…what is the origin of this virus?
LW: All the evidence is pointing to animal to human transmission. That’s the best evidence.
HVS: Why didn’t we have it last year, why didn't we have coronavirus if it’s from an animal to human. Why now as opposed to last year?
LW: We had SARS before we had MERS before that were also coronaviruses that were transmitted from animal to human. The fact is that pandemics can happen at any point. Right now it's COVID-19. Next year, or in two years from now, it could be something else. And that underscores the importance of preparedness. I am really worried about countries that have fragile states, that have weak health care systems that already cannot take care of their citizens and their healthcare needs. Something like a pandemic could really overwhelm their healthcare system. And authoritarian regimes that don't do well with transparency. I am also really worried about the, the value of trust that their citizens may have in their government.
GVS: Alright, getting vaccines for flu’s. About 25 or 20% effective last year 45% effective this year. I'm reading at, you know, and this is what I’m reading. I'd like 100%, I get a flu shot but how fast can we begin, how fast does it take to develop a vaccine, and can we necessarily really develop one for the COVID-19, corona?
LW: Work is underway to start developing a vaccine for COVID-19. But that will take months, if not years. It may take well over a year for a vaccine to be developed and we can't count on that. Because the disease is spreading rapidly right now. That's why public health measures like personal public health measures as in stay at home while you're saying almost washing your hands really well, that's really important. But we also have to count on our government institutions to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
GVS: So it's a joint effort. People and the government everybody working on this one. Dr. Leana Wen, thank you very much…visiting professor at George Washington University.
(GRETA)
Following closely behind China and Korea, in terms of the total number of coronavirus cases is the Diamond Princess. That is the cruise ship where more than 690 passengers, including 36 Americans tested positive for the virus.
All 690 passengers were placed in quarantine, including my next guest - Gay Courter. Ms. Courter remains isolated with her husband and other infected Americans at a military compound in Texas. She joins us by Skype from Lackland Air Force Base...
GVS: Thank you for joining us. I can't imagine what it's like to be quarantined, but is there a way to describe the difference between your quarantine on the ship and your quarantine now?
GC: Well, on the ship, it was a posher penitentiary with beautifully catered foods, lots of desserts that were over the top. I think they were trying to do death by chocolate, but it was not a safe place to be, obviously. The numbers that went from one to 10 now up to over, almost 700. And we knew very early on that it wasn't safe. So for us, the big worry was are we next to get the virus? Here in Texas, we're in rather stark, old-fashioned motel rooms with a joint bathroom. We are not supposed to go outside, although we do go outside, a little bit with our masks on and staying away from other people, because otherwise we’d lose our minds. But it's certainly only 10 or 20 minutes here and there during the day, and very little. We try to respect all the rules, and everybody else does too.
GVS: Alright March 3rd, is I understand that you complete your quarantine, but are you worried. I mean, I don’t want to scare you, but people can be contagious and pass the virus without showing any symptoms and naturally you've been, you flew with the people to the United States and you've been with them.
GC: Well, first of all, we've had no contact with anybody since we've been here. Anybody who interacts with us is fully gowned in hazmat type suits and masks and shields and full body covering. So we haven't been able to infect anybody and we don't get near each other. So this is a real harsh, but correct quarantine. And the numbers of people who've shown up infected here have been very low, only four or five cases, depending how you look at the numbers, which would be expected to have happened just in the transfer and what we might be harboring on the ship. We check for symptoms twice a day and we've had a full throat, a nose swab testing, both here and in Japan. And when we complete our 14 days we're told there were absolutely symptom free, and we're not carrying the virus. So that's, you know, the good news we can go home, we'll have a security certificate of health, but the only way they could guarantee that was being in a very harsh quarantine.
GVS: In terms of, you have no symptoms that's great news, so once you leave you’re symptom free. How did they did they, do they do daily swabs? Is that how they do that, I mean, how are they testing you.
GC: The only accurate test, I mean there's an indicator if your temperature rises and then they do more testing. But the only accurate test as we understand it, are two types of swabs: one down the throat and one very unpleasant one in the nose. Because apparently the nasal passages harbor the virus. But we've been tested with the swabs and the throat both in Japan and here, and also the nasal. And as of yesterday we got paperwork saying we were free. Now that doesn't mean if there was some way to catch it today or if we were harboring it. But the end of knowing is 14 days and that's why they've been very strict about the 14 days.
GVS: Obviously, this has caught everybody by surprise. And all these nations by surprise. Do you have any sort of thoughts on the response on the ship and how they just generally you know, do give high marks to the United States, how its responded to Americans who, who are on that ship?
GC: Well, initially, you know there was one man, one case that he got off the ship about I believe it was January, 25, perhaps, I’m a little confused on my dates, but he, and then, but they didn't find out on the ship about it for another week. Which turned out they found out just a day before we were supposed to disembark. And immediately they went around. The Japanese authorities came on board and they went around testing our temperatures and, and then put us in quarantine and started to take anybody with fever off the ship or other flu like symptoms. They tried very hard, but nobody knew anything and you know this is as you say, this was some viruses only six weeks old. They were, they started all this virus didn't even have a name. It was just the new virus. So, the ship probably made some initial mistakes by letting us mingle for a first day or two before we were quarantined. And I'm sure that spread it but while we were in quarantine the numbers would go from 10 to 20 to 60 to 80 hundred a day. And how was that happening with us never leaving our rooms? So there's some vector on the ship nobody even knows about today. And of course we were being tended to by a crew that was not technically in quarantine. And perhaps they were the one’s spreading it. But very quickly, we figured out, we were not safe on the ship.
GVS: Well, it sounds, I mean, it’s like the whole thing is, you know I mean I regret that anybody's had to go through this and that sounds I mean, I wish that March 3rd can advance pretty quickly for you so you can get out of there.
GC: Well, that's what we did. We started talking to people at home and mounted really a campaign, saying get us the hell off this ship, and we pled, so the government said get us out of here. You move the corona-exposed people from Wuhan that are Americans and move us…
GVS: And I'm sorry I gotta go but thank you very much Gay and good luck.
GC: Well, thanks! We're glad to be here.
GVS: Thank you.
(GRETA)
Outside China, South Korea has the unfortunate distinction of having the largest number of coronavirus cases.
It has More than 830 and that number is rising. The biggest surge in cases in South Korea...
has been in their 4th largest city, about 240 kilometers southeast from Seoul. Local authorities are advising residents to stay home.
VOA's Bill Gallo travelled to the city of Daegu, where residents are worried that the virus may be spreading out of control.
(South Korea Coronavirus Havoc)
These Daegu residents have waited since before dawn to buy protective face masks. They’re braving a cold rain and long lines - not ideal conditions for staying healthy. But they feel they have no choice.
(Bill Gallo, VOA News)
“Many people in this line have been several hours to buy face masks. They prefer to buy them at stores like this - large department stores - instead of smaller retail shops, many of which have dramatically raised the price of face masks.”
(Park Chul-soon, Daegu Resident)
“I feel nervous. That’s why I came out early in the morning //// I’d actually like to pay whatever price for a mask, but I can’t find them anywhere (else).”
(Hwang Su-bin, Daegu Resident)
“I could not buy any masks online. And at stores like Costco, masks are all sold out.”
((Lee Jae-hyuk, Daegu Student (male voice, Korean))
“I only leave the house if I have to, like to empty the trash or buy some necessities. And I only talk to my friends over the phone now.”
(NARRATOR)
As coronavirus patients stream in, some hospitals are struggling to keep up. Some are running out of beds.
(Oh Jong-won, Kyungpook National University Hospital)
“Some staff -- particularly the emergency room and initial screening clinic staff - have been working extremely hard. Their fatigue really has accumulated (over the past week).”
((NARRATOR))
At this hospital, officials say they are well-equipped. But it’s a constant struggle to keep the infected patients away from the healthy ones.
On Daegu’s streets, things are quiet, as officials scramble to disinfect areas visited by confirmed coronavirus patients.
Most of the infections have been linked to this fringe religious group, whose operations have largely been shut down.
For global health officials, the South Korean outbreak is worrying.
(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization)
"The sudden increase of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There is a lot of speculation about whether this increase means that this epidemic has now become a pandemic.”
((NARRATOR))
The big worry is: if the virus spreads this fast in a country that has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, what will it do in other countries?
(GRETA)
GVS: Our colleague in South Korea, Bill Gallo joins us on Skype from Seoul. Bill, nice to see you. And today, I mean, you're there. Can you give me sort of an overall view of your impression?
BG: Well, I mean, in many ways, you're seeing a lot of what happened in China as far as people are very scared. They're stockpiling food and masks, in some cases, unnecessarily, in some cases people are doing whatever they think is necessary. However, there are key differences. In China, you had a lot of cities that were locked down, movement restricted, people actually forcibly prevented from going outside, things like that. South Korea is definitely taking another approach. Many people are staying inside but it's because they're being asked to. Leaders are out on the street, sort of urging calm and things like that. But on the other hand, there's a lot of freedom in South Korea, a lot of media reporting, a lot of testing going on, which can in a way make it seem worse, and also perhaps lead to some of the societal issues like panic and things like that
GVS: is Daegu different than Seoul, in terms of when you go there, how it feels in terms of the coronavirus? whether it's the panic level or the response level? Why Daegu?
BG: Daegu is primarily shut down. I mean, there are businesses that are open. it's not completely like a ghost town like you've seen some Chinese cities recently. But there are businesses open. It originally started with a fringe religious group here. There was a 61-year-old woman who attended 2 services and within days this had really ballooned into something that was you know, hundreds of people infected. Authorities are trying to test 200,000 members of that religious group they’re, you know, vigorously hunting them down to search for them actually and test them. But the difference with Seoul is many group events are canceled. So basically any group gathering, whether that's a sporting event, a concert, any type of collective activity has essentially been canceled or postponed indefinitely in Seoul. Many people are wearing masks, though not everyone is in Seoul.
GVS: what about the American -there's some American soldier has now been tested, shown positive for Coronavirus?
BG: Right- the coronavirus has reached us military bases. They’ve enacted tight screening measures. Of course, this is a unique danger for the military community. They live in tight quarters in many cases. they share meals. So US officials and service members are very concerned about this spreading within their barracks.
GVS: Bill, thank you. Bill Gallo, VOA’s Asia correspondent.
(GRETA)
Halfway around the world, parts of Northern Italy are on lockdown.
This, following the deaths of seven people there. And there are growing concerns for the economies in Sub Saharan Africa.
VOA's Henry Ridgwell has more from London.
(Europe Confronts Coronavirus)
At Rome’s famous Trevi fountain tourists are taking no chances.
“Many people virus, so I am scared… (I wear) this mask.”
Further north in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto - the epicentre of the Italian outbreak - several small towns have been put on lockdown.
But with new cases reported in other Italian regions – and in Spain and Switzerland – health authorities are struggling to contain the virus. Scientists say its vital people do all they can do stop its spread.
(Dr. Sterghios Moschos, University of Northumbria)
“The containment procedure is there to effectively dampen down the intensity of transmission and stretch it out to prevent an overload in healthcare settings.”
Iran is one of the worst-affected nations outside China, with hundreds of infections and more than a dozen confirmed deaths. These videos posted on social media appear to show long lines for face masks. VOA could not independently verify their authenticity.
South Korea is also badly hit and the U.S. government has advised against all non-essential travel there.
In China – where the virus first appeared in late December - infections have topped 77,000, with over 2,500 deaths.
(Dr. Sterghios Moschos, University of Northumbria)
“The window of opportunity for stopping this disease from becoming a pandemic is narrowing very fast. We, the entire (medical) community at the moment is anticipating this will eventually develop into a pandemic. However I have to point out that in the past we’ve had similar fears and what has happened is that viruses just died down, die away.”
The global economic cost could hit $360 billion, according to a report from the Overseas Development Institute or ODI, which warns sub-Saharan Africa stands to lose $4 billion in export revenue. South Africa’s lobster industry is in turmoil after China halted imports of seafood.
(FISHERWOMAN, LORRAINE BROWN)
“The factory don't want to take our fish, there's no market for our fish.”
Oil and copper prices are sharply down – and big exporters to China, such as Angola, are suffering.
The ODI says Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the Philippines will be worst hit.
(Sherilynn Raga, Overseas Development Institute)
“Everyone’s looking back at the SARS impact in 2003. But of course if we look back, China is now four times bigger than during the time of the SARS outbreak and it’s more connected to the world now through global value chains, and the manufacturing sector.”
Scientists are racing to produce a vaccine for the virus – with the first human trial scheduled for April. By then the Covid-19 outbreak could be a full pandemic – with serious consequences for national health systems and the global economy. Henry Ridgwell, for VOA News, London.
(GRETA)
The rapid spread of Corona virus has rattled stock markets around the world.
Investors had initially taken the outbreak in stride. Now the outbreak is having an impact on global supply chains, trade, and even tourism. The impact may be more expansive and longer lasting than first thought.
Kathy Bostjancic is the Director of Investor Services at Oxford Economics. She was formerly...
director and chief analyst at the Conference Board and once served as senior economist at Merrill Lynch.
GVS: Welcome to plugged in Kathy. And -- even if your nation does not have a active case of Coronavirus, and that’s good for any nation, there's an impact economically, is there not? And can you give me an idea, give me an assessment of this?
KB: Yes, Greta. It's true. We haven't had a major outbreak in the US. But we can certainly feel the impact of first, you've got supply chains that are affected, as you said. Also, exports both tourism and goods are affected. And we have the financial markets in great turmoil. So that actually resulted in the tightening of financial conditions. And then just the uncertainty. And what we estimate is right now, we probably have a loss of about four tenths of GDP growth in the US. So that's about $50 billion for the US. So that lowers the pace of our estimate for growth to about 1.3%.
GVS: Is-- some of the products, like I mean, the iPhone, you know, products or something from China, you know, we can all live without. But aren't some of the products, is it not going to have an impact pharmaceuticals coming or ingredients to go into pharmaceuticals. It also has a health cost, economic cost to this?
KB: That's right. So these intermediate goods are really the issue. It's not just the finished goods that are exported to the US, but the intermediate goods that could be used in the manufacturing process here in the US, as you said in other maybe health related products as well. So it's quite concerning. The world is much more connected now in terms of global trade and this just in time inventory management, where companies, it was wise economically to have lean inventories. But when you have a shock like this, it really exposes the downside to that type of, you know, management of inventories.
GVS: the global economy seems to be so fragile when it comes to fear and panic. And you don't know how, like, you know, what's legitimate fear and panic and what is not. What can a government do or a world economic organization do to try to sort of put this in this correct perspective, whatever that may be?
KB: Well, I think you hit it on the head when you talked about the idea that it's the steps or maybe the fear of the virus that could cause a lot of the economic damage. We don't really know the full extent of this virus as has been indicated by the previous guests. But the fact that governments are taking pretty aggressive and maybe even crude attempts to contain the virus, it's understandable they do that, but in doing so you're shutting down parts of economies, you know, countries’ economies and economic activity. And then it affects the global chain and interconnectedness of trade. So that, those attempts, again to contain the virus had these, you know, unwanted effects on global trading activity. And that's really the concern. And as you said, we don't know if it's if it's helpful or not, and whether it's panic or not, but the reality is, it hurts the economy in real time.
GVS: obviously when the economy is hurt. I mean, it hurts so many people in so many different ways. But is this elastic? I mean, as as you look at this horror that we're all dealing with now, this coronavirus, is it, are you least satisfied that the economy is elastic and we'll come back?
KB: Well, that's a great point. So the key is how Prolonged the disruption to economic activity is and also how deep. but our expectation is that this is probably going to be somewhat of a temporary effect, something really lasting through the first half of the year. And by the second half of 2020, we should start to see economic activity rebound in many of the economies. And then by 2021, we could get back to more of a normal state. But again, that depends on how protracted you know the spread of the virus Is and the effect that could have.
GVS: Kathy, thank you very much.
KB: My pleasure.
GVS: Kathy Bostjancic, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics.
(GRETA)
That's all the time we have for today.
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