(COLD OPEN)
on Plugged In…
A wave of unrest…
sweeping across…
South America…
In Venezuela…
Ecuador…
Peru…
Chile..
And Bolivia…
Countries where inequality…
Failing economies…
and corruption…
have fueled angry protests...
a political coup...
and the largest...
refugee crisis...
in the hemisphere.
Is the world seeing…
a Latin American Awakening…
or a South American collapse?
On Plugged in…
“Turmoil in South America”
(WELCOME)
Hello and welcome to Plugged in.
I'm Greta Van Susteren.
The 24-hour news cycle is intense. And with so much happening around the world, there is big news that some of you may not be aware of... South America.
Unstable governments, a huge refugee crisis, income inequality, and corruption have all led to massive protests throughout the continent.
And in Bolivia - it led to the fall of the region's longest-serving president.
VOA's Cristina Caicedo-Smit has our report.
(SOUTH AMERICA UNREST)
Tear gas, screams, shields, rocks and masks are the images coming from some South American countries that have become center stage for mass protests numbering in the thousands.
So far, dozens of people have been killed in these violent clashes.
The first violent demonstrations occurred in Ecuador, after the government announced the elimination of fuel subsidies.
“Tenemos que trabajar para mantener a todos los empleados públicos”.
A few days later, angry clashes between students and the police took over the streets of Chile's capital. The protests over income inequality erupted after President Sebastián Piñera announced a 30-peso increase in metro rides.
((CHILE NAT SOUND))
“La desigualdad solo se ha ido incrementando en todos los pilares fundamentales de la vida”
In neighboring Bolivia, citizens took to the streets over allegations of electoral fraud by President Evo Morales. After 13 years in the presidency, Morales stepped down, suggesting he was being forced out.
Even though he left office and the country, protests, riots and violence continue in Bolivia as his supporters demand his return.
((BOLIVIA NAT SOUND))
“Queremos pedirle a nuestro presidente Evo que vuelva”.
Experts say while each South American nation is unique, these protests are rooted in the region's perennial themes of income inequality, poverty and endemic corruption.
((Isaac Cohen, Economist))
“We have a situation that is a slowdown in economic conditions because of the falling commodity prices derived from the slowdown in China and certain specific detonators that generate these reactions.”
((NARRATION))
The International Monetary Fund estimates that since 2014, the economies of South America have grown at an anemic 1.3 percent, and growth this year is expected to top out at only six-tenths of one percent.
Economist Isaac Cohen says that in troubled times, minor issues can blow up into big problems.
In Chile, for example, the trigger for the disturbances was a small increase in the price of a subway ticket.
Protesters said it was not the 30 pesos, but 30 years of inequality and lack of opportunities, plus a privatized economy that led them to take to the streets.
((Isaac Cohen, Economist))
“Chile had a very good situation and when people were enjoying the very good economy they loved capitalism. Now, you have a situation where the prices of one of their main exports, copper has gone down. People forget for instance that in the case of Chile, Chile is still a commodity exporting economy.”
((NARRATION))
Corruption is another key element in the general discontent in the Latin American region. A Transparency International report indicates that 54% of Chilean citizens think corruption has increased in the last 12 months.
The International Monetary Fund ranks Latin America as an area of the world where corruption is very common.
This means Latin Americans are likely to continue to demand their governments aggressively tackle corruption, say experts.
((Maria Fernanda Perez, The Atlantic Council ))
“Citizens are feeling empowered. They want their governments to respond to the acts of politicians and they're done with the impunity of the political classes.”
((NARRATION))
Latin American experts emphasize that corruption, poverty, inequality aren't going away, and predict that violent protests are likely to continue well into the new year.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT, VOA NEWS WASHINGTON.
(GRETA)
The circumstances in each country may be different, but a lot of the unrest is fueled by common themes: poverty, increasing inequality and income, political dysfunction, and of course, yes, government corruption.
Gonzalo Abarca is the host of VOA's Foro Inter-Americano, one of the most watched TV News programs in the Western hemisphere.
(Greta interviews Gonzalo Abarca)
GVS: Thank you for joining us.
GA: Greta, nice being here.
GVS: OK, so the IMF says that the growth since about 2014 in all these Latin American and all these South American countries is so sluggish. What happened to the economies that it all went so sluggish in 2014.
GA: Number one, corruption. There’s a big deal of corruption in our countries. Second, there is a country like Argentina, right now - is trying to renegotiate with a new president, Alberto Fernandez. Trying to renegotiate $56 billion, with the International Monetary fund. We have to remember the crisis in Argentina in 2001, when it went into default with 96 billion dollars. We're talking about big issues here. The other issue is that, in addition to the corruption, there are two players as well, the United States, still a big market, however China and Russia getting into it. And somehow the government, they have not updated their economic systems. So they are still relying on certain elements, either, can be commodities, and sometimes fruit, and pretty much agricultural products. So it is a big issue Greta.
GVS: But what’s triggered these sort of massive protests from an American standpoint is that in Chile, the subway fare was going up, in Ecuador the fuel subsidies were lifted, prices of fuel went up in Haiti and it seems like you know, we grumble about that a lot here when that happens, but it has had such a, I guess devastating impact and has sent people to the streets.
GA: That's right. What happened is the international organizations, pretty much the government, they don’t know how to handle this. Corruption is rampant in some of these…
GVS: Is that new?
GA: I'm sorry…
GVS: Is the corruption new?
GA: No, (chuckles) corruption has been in Latin America…
GVS So why, I mean, corruption has been, why all of a sudden when they’ve had corruption a long time?
GA: Never on this scale. Before I remember some dictators, some presidents in Latin America, people were pretty much talking about corruption and whatever, a couple of million dollars. Pinochet in Chile for example. It happens that they prove that he had some money hidden away, $10 million dollars. But right now, we’re talking about billions of dollars. So you are right. What happened is the money, the money goes away. They go to the international organizations and the organizations OK, I’m going to give you the money, however it’s going to be under my terms and pretty much those terms that means a lot of austerity. People in Latin America, you know their income is probably, a professional in Latin America, generally speaking is $500 a month what they make – professionals. So you can imagine what's happening when the subway goes $3 here, some fruits go $1 up. So it’s a lot of inequality.
GVS: But what seems a little bit different in that in Bolivia, it’s not so much an economic cost but that Morales has now fled to Mexico.
GA: Yes.
GVS: Is that he wanted, that the O.A.S. says that there was corruption in the election. He says no and also now he's got his supporters, the indigenous people in Bolivia and taken to the streets, wanting him to come back.
GA: Right. Now, we have, as a matter of fact, let’s just start with Cuba. Cuba is the first, biggest importer of corruption.
GVS: Importer or exporter?
GA: I’m sorry, exporter. Exporter of corruption. Then that was exported to Venezuela. And the way they are doing it, it’s no longer coups – It’s just stacking the system with your cronies. So, in this case, for example, Evo Morales - let's do a quick look: almost 14 years in power. He was pretty much, was elected because he’s part of the Aymara ( family of subsistence farmers) pretty much from the American part of Bolivia, Aymara a part of it. And basically what he said is, “See I am a single, pretty much ordinary people, I can help my people, indigenous people I represent them.” So they decided, yeah, that sounds good. Let's do it. They decided to put him in power. 14 years later, we can see what happened. Now keep in mind that Bolivia has a specific issue, it doesn't have any access to the sea. So it's really hard for them, you know, to get a various strong economy. However, the economy in Bolivia was going okay. And as a matter of fact, if you can see some of the statistics, he pretty much reduced the poverty in his country. However, corruption is something that you cannot take pretty lightly. So people pretty much like, you know, after 14 years, we need some transparency. We really need some, we need something back. So, what he did, he pretty much, again, took that money. We don't know where that money is. a lot of, they’re trying to figure out, the new government is trying to figure out where that money is. So we'll see what happens in Bolivia. It's still, the crisis going on. It's an interim government.
GVS: Do you think think he’ll go back? Do you think that he'll leave Mexico and go back? The new interim president says he's going to be tried if he comes back.
GA: Right.
GVS: For corruption in the election.
GA: Right. In Mexico, he's still saying it was a coup. He insists that it was a coup, number one. Second, he’s saying that he is willing to go back to Bolivia, in order to pacify the country.
GVS: And finish out his term.
GA: I don't think so. One of the, a lot of people, experts are pretty much concerned that he’d rather from Mexico, just say to his followers: “You know guys, let's keep it down and let's you know, let's negotiate.”
GVS: Thank you, Gonzalo Abarca. Host of VOA’s Foro Inter-Americano. Thank you sir.
GA: It was a pleasure.
(GRETA)
Among the most troubled states in South America is Venezuela. A collapsing economy under an authoritarian leader sent more than four million Venezuelans fleeing across the border. Led by the United States, more than 50 countries are backing Venezuela’s opposition leader, Juan Guaido.
But Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro still enjoys the support of at least two powerful countries.
Plugged In’s Mil Arcega reports.
(Russia & China Factor)
Smiles at the Kremlin as Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the Venezuelan president.
The meeting in September helped soften the blow of tough new sanctions imposed by the United States against officials of the Maduro government.
((Vladimir Putin, Russian President))
"You know that Russia consistently supports all legitimate authorities (of Venezuela), including the presidential and parliamentary institutions.”
((NARRATOR))
Russia, along with China, remain Venezuela’s strongest allies. Both continue to import Venezuelan oil despite US sanctions. Both have significant investments in Venezuela and both are among the country’s biggest creditors.
But whether the Russian or Chinese support translates into financial aid for the struggling regime is doubtful - says US Special Representative Elliott Abrams.
((Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Venezuela))
“I don't think you're going to see large amounts of additional money put in by either Russia or China, but their political support, their diplomatic support, helps the regime. And we have made the argument unsuccessfully to date, to both Russia and China, that they're not helping themselves.”
((NARRATOR))
China and Russia have invested tens of billions of dollars to prop-up the economically crippled but oil-rich country. Venezuela is paying some of that back in oil, but Abrams says neither country should expect to be paid back in full.
((Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Venezuela))
“A bankrupt Venezuelan economy will never be able to repay those amounts. Only a Venezuela in recovery, would be able to do so, and that's not going to happen under the Maduro regime.”
((NARRATOR))
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, who the US recognizes as the country’s interim president, believes change is inevitable:
((Juan Guaidó, Venezuela National Assembly President, in Spanish))
"I don't know if it was a breeze in South America, or if it was a Bolivian hurricane of democracy, but here today I feel a little breeze in Venezuela of freedom, I feel a breeze of justice.”
((NARRATOR))
So far, the United States has provided 52 million dollars to aid Mr. Guaido and pro-democracy efforts in Venezuela. For Plugged In – Mil Arcega VOA News.
(GRETA)
The stakes are extremely high in South America. And there are deep divisions in several countries that could have long term consequences north to Central America - continuing north to the United States and beyond.
I had a chance to speak with Carlos Trujillo, the US Ambassador to the Organization of American States.
Putting it simply - I asked the ambassador 'What is happening in South America?'
((Carlos Trujillo Interview))
CT: Challenging times, I think a lot of opportunity as well. In Bolivia, we recently, there was recently elections that took place. A lot of fraud was discovered by the organization of American states. An interim government has been established and they're hopefully heading towards elections within the next 90 days.
GVS: Was it—now Morales, who has fled to Mexico as a consequence of the trouble in Bolivia, he says it's a military coup. Was it a military coup that threw him out?
CT: It was not. He resigned under his own free will, he decided to leave the country, he was granted the ability to leave the country safely. The Mexican Air Force was able to pick him up inside of Bolivia and take him back to Mexico. So he abandoned his post and he resigned from his, at that point, he was democratically elected as president of Bolivia.
GVS: Does it matter whether it's a military coup for any reasons other than what he calls, does it matter, is there a legal implication?
CT: what they're trying to do is create the narrative of a military coup in order to challenge the legitimacy of his resignation. But at the end of the day I think it's important to recognize the circumstances surrounding his resignation. He acknowledged that the elections, which he presided over, that his party was in charge of, were full of fraud.
GVS: what kind of fraud?
CT: Multiple dead people voting which is typical in some of these elections, but also digital and electronic fraud. (inaudible) observers that were coming into manipulate the outcomes of the actual official readings.
CT: the Bolivian Constitution has term limits. Morales went to a referendum to change the constitution to eliminate the term limit provision. It was rejected by the Bolivian electorate. At that point, he appealed to the Bolivian Supreme court and claimed a human right to indefinite reelection. Bolivia’s Supreme Court granted him this human right to indefinite re election. And that's why he was able to run for, I think, believe it was his full third term in office.
GVS: So what's the future for Bolivia, there are protests on the street right now.?
CT: I think there's protests on the street and obviously there's, there's ah, I think the democratic institutions work. I think Bolivia could be a framework of what could happen and what's possible in other countries such as Venezuela. The future Bolivia is an interim president, that's constitutionally recognized, going now and calling for free, fair democratic elections in 90 days
GVS: what, how would you describe the government of Chile. I mean in terms of –Morales is socialist? Fair enough?
CT I would say Morales is socialists.
GVS: and Chile is, what?
CT: Center right free market capitalists.
GVS: and so why, why are the people unhappy? or why in the center right, has it been unsuccessful? We have protests in both—
CT: I think you have protests all over the world, anytime, people who are either disenfranchised or there's not enough economic opportunity, regardless of who's in charge. in Central America we have center right presidents, in which people feel that there's not enough economic opportunity. Some of those people decide to protest or flee the country. across the Caribbean across the Americas you have center left and center right presidents and people feel that there's not enough economic opportunity, they’re disenfranchised. at that point it leads to subsequent protests.
GVS: So what's the future of Chile, immediate future?
CT: the immediate future of Chile, they have a democratically elected president, and who's offered some reforms to some of the opposition members. and they have to sit down and negotiate what's the best path forward for their country. but it's completely different from from Bolivia.
GVS: in what way?
CT: in Bolivia, you have a president, because of mass allegations of fraud, who resigned his post and fled the country, which is now-- in the middle of an election cycle. So, which has now led to elections taking place within the next 90 days governed by an interim government. In Chile, you have a democratically elected president who's had civil unrest, based on unpopular policies, which he has even defend the policies or find a way to make amends with the opposition in order to advance the country.
GVS: I’ve been in Colombia, on the border with Venezuela. We got an awful lot of unrest in Venezuela, people pouring across the border trying to get away from Maduro. How does Maduro fit into this, all this unrest?
CT: I think Maduro’s a massive destabilizing effect in the Americas across the hemisphere. and not only Maduro but also the Cuban influence in Venezuela and across the Americas has led to a lot of destabilizing effects.
GVS: is Cuba causing a destabilization in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and what, Venezuela, you said?
CT: well in Venezuela absolutely. and some of the other countries there’s obviously allegations that the Cuban influence is involved in Ecuador, Ecuador canceled last week the Cuban doctor program under the auspices that a lot of those doctors were actually Cuban intelligence officers. in Colombia and Bolivia, they found Cuban doctors, quote unquote, with bags full of cash, which were also expelled from for both countries the week prior. So I think there is an underlying Cuban influence, how big or how small, I think it's yet to be determined.
GVS: why do so many of these nations have problems? or am I just focused on them? If you look at South America, and you look at North America, they're just two different- they have very much in common, they have oceans, they have mountains, what's the what's the problem in South America?
CT: I would say the problem across a lot of countries, in studying America, what's the biggest differentiator between the United States of America and the rest of the Americas, really it’s the rule of law. Why do they have the same beautiful Pacific water the same beautiful Atlantic water, all these natural resources, oil, minerals, great people, hard working people, why are they so different in the United States when it comes to democracy and economic success? IT’s the rule of law.
GVS: looking at South America now, is South America right now with all the protests collapsing? or awakening? Or these are good signs? or bright future? Or these are terribly turbulent times and we have good reason to be worried?
CT: I think the next few months will determine that. Right now protests in and of itself I think are a good strong side of a democracy. The fact that people can protest in the street, that they can voice their concerns towards their government the fact that they’re peaceful, in some of the cases that hasn't been the case but a lot of times it has.
GVS: but pro Morales protesters have now gone to the streets, saying they want Morales back and it's not particularly peaceful and a lot of these people are getting killed in these protests.
CT: some happen, And I think we have to put some of these numbers, it's in the 10s of people that are getting killed. which is obviously much more than is acceptable, but it's not the hundreds or the thousands, especially a country of millions of people. and the Morales protesters they want him back, but Morales resigned and left under his free will.
GVS: is the problem in South America going to be visited on the United States in any way? What's the collateral impact?
CT: I think the collateral impact, we see it every single day across cities in America. When you have a failed state in Venezuela, in which transnational criminal organizations operate with impunity, and they're able to ship fentanyl through our southern borders and are able to come up over southern borders into Chicago, New York and Miami and San Diego and Seattle, the American people suffer. And I think that's the issue that we're facing when, why does Venezuela matter, why would someone in the middle of nowhere in any city, United States, why would they care about what's happening in the middle of nowhere Venezuela? Because when those failed states fail, the economic and political and social and criminal tragedies, don't end within their borders. They end across the Americas and unfortunately sometimes even into our country.
GVS: and Of course the immigration issue, because people are trying to raise their families or live and thrive. They want to get out of these places where there's so much danger, or whether there's no food for medicine.
CT: Absolutely. When you have a failed state of Venezuela that's dropping kilos of cocaine or fentanyl in a rural community in Guatemala, and now these narcos are killing and murdering people in those communities, no one wants to live in those circumstances. so it causes more pressure on our southern border more migration, and some of the tragedies, speaking to some of the migrants, of what they encounter on their path to the United States. It isn't on a subway cart, it isn’t in the backseat of a car with an Uber driver. It's with transnational criminal organizations with coyotes, a lot of them are human smuggled, some of them are, their personal rights are violated. it's a very difficult situation.
(GRETA)
So how do we make sense of what the ambassador calls “a difficult situation”?
And what is the impact to surrounding countries?
Cynthia Arnson is one of the foremost experts on the politics and the economies of Spanish-speaking countries in the Western Hemisphere.
She is Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
She has written books and articles on war, peace and human rights in Central and South America.
And she has testified many times before the US Congress.
((Cynthia Arnson Interview))
GVS: Thank you for joining us.
CA: A pleasure! Thanks for the invitation.
GVS: Okay, the common theme seems to be terrible economy, corruption, and massive protests it's all happening at least right now, what's going on?
CA: Well, I would agree with the previous commentators that there is very much an economic basis to all of this, the years of the 2000s a decade of the 2000s from about 2003 maybe until 2012 was really a golden decade for Latin America; particularly, South America, those countries that had basic commodities copper soy iron ore benefited from a huge increase in demand from China. At a time when the Chinese economy was growing something like 10 or 11%, a year. So, this was a time when massive numbers of people throughout the region were lifted out of poverty. And I think that there was a World Bank study a couple of years ago that indicated that for the first time in Latin American history as a result of this commodities boom. The number of people in the middle class was, was greater than the number of people in poverty that had never before happened, but I think what we're seeing now is another piece of the World Bank study which indicated that the largest class in Latin America consisted of those people who were vulnerable, who were one paycheck away from falling back into poverty. So, overall, in the region growth rates are very mediocre, in some cases in Brazil for example it's in recession Venezuela, as you've mentioned is collapsing and the cost of living continues to rise. Wages are stagnating, and I think that that undergirding of discontent because at the same time, people's expectations went way up as well.
GVS: You talk about expectations I mean I think Venezuela I've been to the border and seeing the people stream across in Venezuela. In that case, there's been so much promise to the people in terms of money, and then of course the price of oil went down and the government then couldn't give them money now we've gotten extreme inflation in Haiti and something that the ambassador mentioned, is rule of law and I've been to Haiti a number of times and they're not even paying their police officers and in the places that I go in Haiti you know it is really you know there is extreme poverty, I mean, let me see I've got a rule of law problem to at least Haiti is that true in these other places or not?
CA: Well, you certainly have rule of law problems throughout the hemisphere these massive corruption scandals that have exploded into public view over the last few years. You know if they're not dealt with, if people who are guilty or accused of committing these acts of corruption or not on, do not have to pay a price I mean it contributes to this sense that the government doesn't work that institutions don't work the democracy for all of its promise doesn't work
GVS: So, what do you do I mean I use Haiti as an example because that's the place I visit so much as I look and I think like, what can we do what can happen there? How does it get better for them?
CA: Well, Haiti is really, I think, a case that's very different than say what's happening in Bolivia what's happening in Chile or what's happening in Venezuela. Haiti has suffered a crisis of governance for about as long as I can remember in my professional life. This is a place where politicians have not been able to come together to provide for the common good to provide any semblance of clean government, and it's not that the international community hasn't tried, there have been massive efforts there have been U.N. missions. And so I'm not sure that I can say what the answer is in Haiti, but to continue to side with the people in civil society who are asking for clean government.
GVS: In the minute we have let me ask you the impossible question, how do you measure what the United States responsibility is with for a moral or even self-protection, what is the responsibility to this region?
CA: I think the responsibility of the United States is enormous. These are our closest neighbors. This is an area where US businesses have a huge presence. And I think we have an interest in having stable and prosperous governments in the hemisphere or we feel the effects.
GVS: Is it akin to the Arab Spring or is this just something very different?
CA: I think this is very different. There are all kinds of demands for changes and it's very, very important not to mix apples and oranges and trying to understand that there are common grievances about the way government doesn't work, the way the quality of public services, health and education is inferior to private health and education and people are fed up with that. But, what is going on in Chile and the demand for a new constitution is related to a Constitution, from the years of the dictatorship in Bolivia people are outraged that Evo Morales apparently stole an election, and that's just different from what's going on in in Haiti or in Venezuela.
GVS: Thank you very much, Cynthia Arnson Latin American program at the Wilson Center. Thank you very much.
CA: Thank you.
((CLOSING THOUGHTS))
And before we go, Some closing thoughts on another serious issue roiling South America - one that could have even more serious consequences for the planet – unless we do something about it.
The Amazon rainforest, the so-called lungs of the planet is still burning. Researchers in Brazil say nearly 77-hundred square kilometers of rainforest have been destroyed in a 12-month span ending in July.
Brazil’s environmental minister confirmed that number saying that illegal logging and mining operations in the jungle are to blame.
Environmental activists say that much deforestation will have a negative effect on the planet’s oxygen supply. But there are others who insist that assessment is inaccurate and overblown.
Regardless of who is right and who is wrong, here's another way to look at what we have lost.
The area of rainforest that has been destroyed in the Amazon, just this year is equivalent to the size of of New York City - times 12.
That's right. An area 12 times the size of New York City.
That is a lot of deforestation, and only what the world has lost in 2019. And 2019 is not over.
Environmental experts say we can still save the Amazon. But time is running out...
That's all the time we have for today.
Stay Plugged In by liking us on Facebook at Voice of America.
You can also like my Facebook page at facebook-dot-com-forward-slash-Greta. And follow me on Twitter - at Greta.
Thanks for being Plugged In.
on Plugged In…
A wave of unrest…
sweeping across…
South America…
In Venezuela…
Ecuador…
Peru…
Chile..
And Bolivia…
Countries where inequality…
Failing economies…
and corruption…
have fueled angry protests...
a political coup...
and the largest...
refugee crisis...
in the hemisphere.
Is the world seeing…
a Latin American Awakening…
or a South American collapse?
On Plugged in…
“Turmoil in South America”
(WELCOME)
Hello and welcome to Plugged in.
I'm Greta Van Susteren.
The 24-hour news cycle is intense. And with so much happening around the world, there is big news that some of you may not be aware of... South America.
Unstable governments, a huge refugee crisis, income inequality, and corruption have all led to massive protests throughout the continent.
And in Bolivia - it led to the fall of the region's longest-serving president.
VOA's Cristina Caicedo-Smit has our report.
(SOUTH AMERICA UNREST)
Tear gas, screams, shields, rocks and masks are the images coming from some South American countries that have become center stage for mass protests numbering in the thousands.
So far, dozens of people have been killed in these violent clashes.
The first violent demonstrations occurred in Ecuador, after the government announced the elimination of fuel subsidies.
“Tenemos que trabajar para mantener a todos los empleados públicos”.
A few days later, angry clashes between students and the police took over the streets of Chile's capital. The protests over income inequality erupted after President Sebastián Piñera announced a 30-peso increase in metro rides.
((CHILE NAT SOUND))
“La desigualdad solo se ha ido incrementando en todos los pilares fundamentales de la vida”
In neighboring Bolivia, citizens took to the streets over allegations of electoral fraud by President Evo Morales. After 13 years in the presidency, Morales stepped down, suggesting he was being forced out.
Even though he left office and the country, protests, riots and violence continue in Bolivia as his supporters demand his return.
((BOLIVIA NAT SOUND))
“Queremos pedirle a nuestro presidente Evo que vuelva”.
Experts say while each South American nation is unique, these protests are rooted in the region's perennial themes of income inequality, poverty and endemic corruption.
((Isaac Cohen, Economist))
“We have a situation that is a slowdown in economic conditions because of the falling commodity prices derived from the slowdown in China and certain specific detonators that generate these reactions.”
((NARRATION))
The International Monetary Fund estimates that since 2014, the economies of South America have grown at an anemic 1.3 percent, and growth this year is expected to top out at only six-tenths of one percent.
Economist Isaac Cohen says that in troubled times, minor issues can blow up into big problems.
In Chile, for example, the trigger for the disturbances was a small increase in the price of a subway ticket.
Protesters said it was not the 30 pesos, but 30 years of inequality and lack of opportunities, plus a privatized economy that led them to take to the streets.
((Isaac Cohen, Economist))
“Chile had a very good situation and when people were enjoying the very good economy they loved capitalism. Now, you have a situation where the prices of one of their main exports, copper has gone down. People forget for instance that in the case of Chile, Chile is still a commodity exporting economy.”
((NARRATION))
Corruption is another key element in the general discontent in the Latin American region. A Transparency International report indicates that 54% of Chilean citizens think corruption has increased in the last 12 months.
The International Monetary Fund ranks Latin America as an area of the world where corruption is very common.
This means Latin Americans are likely to continue to demand their governments aggressively tackle corruption, say experts.
((Maria Fernanda Perez, The Atlantic Council ))
“Citizens are feeling empowered. They want their governments to respond to the acts of politicians and they're done with the impunity of the political classes.”
((NARRATION))
Latin American experts emphasize that corruption, poverty, inequality aren't going away, and predict that violent protests are likely to continue well into the new year.
CRISTINA CAICEDO SMIT, VOA NEWS WASHINGTON.
(GRETA)
The circumstances in each country may be different, but a lot of the unrest is fueled by common themes: poverty, increasing inequality and income, political dysfunction, and of course, yes, government corruption.
Gonzalo Abarca is the host of VOA's Foro Inter-Americano, one of the most watched TV News programs in the Western hemisphere.
(Greta interviews Gonzalo Abarca)
GVS: Thank you for joining us.
GA: Greta, nice being here.
GVS: OK, so the IMF says that the growth since about 2014 in all these Latin American and all these South American countries is so sluggish. What happened to the economies that it all went so sluggish in 2014.
GA: Number one, corruption. There’s a big deal of corruption in our countries. Second, there is a country like Argentina, right now - is trying to renegotiate with a new president, Alberto Fernandez. Trying to renegotiate $56 billion, with the International Monetary fund. We have to remember the crisis in Argentina in 2001, when it went into default with 96 billion dollars. We're talking about big issues here. The other issue is that, in addition to the corruption, there are two players as well, the United States, still a big market, however China and Russia getting into it. And somehow the government, they have not updated their economic systems. So they are still relying on certain elements, either, can be commodities, and sometimes fruit, and pretty much agricultural products. So it is a big issue Greta.
GVS: But what’s triggered these sort of massive protests from an American standpoint is that in Chile, the subway fare was going up, in Ecuador the fuel subsidies were lifted, prices of fuel went up in Haiti and it seems like you know, we grumble about that a lot here when that happens, but it has had such a, I guess devastating impact and has sent people to the streets.
GA: That's right. What happened is the international organizations, pretty much the government, they don’t know how to handle this. Corruption is rampant in some of these…
GVS: Is that new?
GA: I'm sorry…
GVS: Is the corruption new?
GA: No, (chuckles) corruption has been in Latin America…
GVS So why, I mean, corruption has been, why all of a sudden when they’ve had corruption a long time?
GA: Never on this scale. Before I remember some dictators, some presidents in Latin America, people were pretty much talking about corruption and whatever, a couple of million dollars. Pinochet in Chile for example. It happens that they prove that he had some money hidden away, $10 million dollars. But right now, we’re talking about billions of dollars. So you are right. What happened is the money, the money goes away. They go to the international organizations and the organizations OK, I’m going to give you the money, however it’s going to be under my terms and pretty much those terms that means a lot of austerity. People in Latin America, you know their income is probably, a professional in Latin America, generally speaking is $500 a month what they make – professionals. So you can imagine what's happening when the subway goes $3 here, some fruits go $1 up. So it’s a lot of inequality.
GVS: But what seems a little bit different in that in Bolivia, it’s not so much an economic cost but that Morales has now fled to Mexico.
GA: Yes.
GVS: Is that he wanted, that the O.A.S. says that there was corruption in the election. He says no and also now he's got his supporters, the indigenous people in Bolivia and taken to the streets, wanting him to come back.
GA: Right. Now, we have, as a matter of fact, let’s just start with Cuba. Cuba is the first, biggest importer of corruption.
GVS: Importer or exporter?
GA: I’m sorry, exporter. Exporter of corruption. Then that was exported to Venezuela. And the way they are doing it, it’s no longer coups – It’s just stacking the system with your cronies. So, in this case, for example, Evo Morales - let's do a quick look: almost 14 years in power. He was pretty much, was elected because he’s part of the Aymara ( family of subsistence farmers) pretty much from the American part of Bolivia, Aymara a part of it. And basically what he said is, “See I am a single, pretty much ordinary people, I can help my people, indigenous people I represent them.” So they decided, yeah, that sounds good. Let's do it. They decided to put him in power. 14 years later, we can see what happened. Now keep in mind that Bolivia has a specific issue, it doesn't have any access to the sea. So it's really hard for them, you know, to get a various strong economy. However, the economy in Bolivia was going okay. And as a matter of fact, if you can see some of the statistics, he pretty much reduced the poverty in his country. However, corruption is something that you cannot take pretty lightly. So people pretty much like, you know, after 14 years, we need some transparency. We really need some, we need something back. So, what he did, he pretty much, again, took that money. We don't know where that money is. a lot of, they’re trying to figure out, the new government is trying to figure out where that money is. So we'll see what happens in Bolivia. It's still, the crisis going on. It's an interim government.
GVS: Do you think think he’ll go back? Do you think that he'll leave Mexico and go back? The new interim president says he's going to be tried if he comes back.
GA: Right.
GVS: For corruption in the election.
GA: Right. In Mexico, he's still saying it was a coup. He insists that it was a coup, number one. Second, he’s saying that he is willing to go back to Bolivia, in order to pacify the country.
GVS: And finish out his term.
GA: I don't think so. One of the, a lot of people, experts are pretty much concerned that he’d rather from Mexico, just say to his followers: “You know guys, let's keep it down and let's you know, let's negotiate.”
GVS: Thank you, Gonzalo Abarca. Host of VOA’s Foro Inter-Americano. Thank you sir.
GA: It was a pleasure.
(GRETA)
Among the most troubled states in South America is Venezuela. A collapsing economy under an authoritarian leader sent more than four million Venezuelans fleeing across the border. Led by the United States, more than 50 countries are backing Venezuela’s opposition leader, Juan Guaido.
But Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro still enjoys the support of at least two powerful countries.
Plugged In’s Mil Arcega reports.
(Russia & China Factor)
Smiles at the Kremlin as Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the Venezuelan president.
The meeting in September helped soften the blow of tough new sanctions imposed by the United States against officials of the Maduro government.
((Vladimir Putin, Russian President))
"You know that Russia consistently supports all legitimate authorities (of Venezuela), including the presidential and parliamentary institutions.”
((NARRATOR))
Russia, along with China, remain Venezuela’s strongest allies. Both continue to import Venezuelan oil despite US sanctions. Both have significant investments in Venezuela and both are among the country’s biggest creditors.
But whether the Russian or Chinese support translates into financial aid for the struggling regime is doubtful - says US Special Representative Elliott Abrams.
((Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Venezuela))
“I don't think you're going to see large amounts of additional money put in by either Russia or China, but their political support, their diplomatic support, helps the regime. And we have made the argument unsuccessfully to date, to both Russia and China, that they're not helping themselves.”
((NARRATOR))
China and Russia have invested tens of billions of dollars to prop-up the economically crippled but oil-rich country. Venezuela is paying some of that back in oil, but Abrams says neither country should expect to be paid back in full.
((Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Venezuela))
“A bankrupt Venezuelan economy will never be able to repay those amounts. Only a Venezuela in recovery, would be able to do so, and that's not going to happen under the Maduro regime.”
((NARRATOR))
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, who the US recognizes as the country’s interim president, believes change is inevitable:
((Juan Guaidó, Venezuela National Assembly President, in Spanish))
"I don't know if it was a breeze in South America, or if it was a Bolivian hurricane of democracy, but here today I feel a little breeze in Venezuela of freedom, I feel a breeze of justice.”
((NARRATOR))
So far, the United States has provided 52 million dollars to aid Mr. Guaido and pro-democracy efforts in Venezuela. For Plugged In – Mil Arcega VOA News.
(GRETA)
The stakes are extremely high in South America. And there are deep divisions in several countries that could have long term consequences north to Central America - continuing north to the United States and beyond.
I had a chance to speak with Carlos Trujillo, the US Ambassador to the Organization of American States.
Putting it simply - I asked the ambassador 'What is happening in South America?'
((Carlos Trujillo Interview))
CT: Challenging times, I think a lot of opportunity as well. In Bolivia, we recently, there was recently elections that took place. A lot of fraud was discovered by the organization of American states. An interim government has been established and they're hopefully heading towards elections within the next 90 days.
GVS: Was it—now Morales, who has fled to Mexico as a consequence of the trouble in Bolivia, he says it's a military coup. Was it a military coup that threw him out?
CT: It was not. He resigned under his own free will, he decided to leave the country, he was granted the ability to leave the country safely. The Mexican Air Force was able to pick him up inside of Bolivia and take him back to Mexico. So he abandoned his post and he resigned from his, at that point, he was democratically elected as president of Bolivia.
GVS: Does it matter whether it's a military coup for any reasons other than what he calls, does it matter, is there a legal implication?
CT: what they're trying to do is create the narrative of a military coup in order to challenge the legitimacy of his resignation. But at the end of the day I think it's important to recognize the circumstances surrounding his resignation. He acknowledged that the elections, which he presided over, that his party was in charge of, were full of fraud.
GVS: what kind of fraud?
CT: Multiple dead people voting which is typical in some of these elections, but also digital and electronic fraud. (inaudible) observers that were coming into manipulate the outcomes of the actual official readings.
CT: the Bolivian Constitution has term limits. Morales went to a referendum to change the constitution to eliminate the term limit provision. It was rejected by the Bolivian electorate. At that point, he appealed to the Bolivian Supreme court and claimed a human right to indefinite reelection. Bolivia’s Supreme Court granted him this human right to indefinite re election. And that's why he was able to run for, I think, believe it was his full third term in office.
GVS: So what's the future for Bolivia, there are protests on the street right now.?
CT: I think there's protests on the street and obviously there's, there's ah, I think the democratic institutions work. I think Bolivia could be a framework of what could happen and what's possible in other countries such as Venezuela. The future Bolivia is an interim president, that's constitutionally recognized, going now and calling for free, fair democratic elections in 90 days
GVS: what, how would you describe the government of Chile. I mean in terms of –Morales is socialist? Fair enough?
CT I would say Morales is socialists.
GVS: and Chile is, what?
CT: Center right free market capitalists.
GVS: and so why, why are the people unhappy? or why in the center right, has it been unsuccessful? We have protests in both—
CT: I think you have protests all over the world, anytime, people who are either disenfranchised or there's not enough economic opportunity, regardless of who's in charge. in Central America we have center right presidents, in which people feel that there's not enough economic opportunity. Some of those people decide to protest or flee the country. across the Caribbean across the Americas you have center left and center right presidents and people feel that there's not enough economic opportunity, they’re disenfranchised. at that point it leads to subsequent protests.
GVS: So what's the future of Chile, immediate future?
CT: the immediate future of Chile, they have a democratically elected president, and who's offered some reforms to some of the opposition members. and they have to sit down and negotiate what's the best path forward for their country. but it's completely different from from Bolivia.
GVS: in what way?
CT: in Bolivia, you have a president, because of mass allegations of fraud, who resigned his post and fled the country, which is now-- in the middle of an election cycle. So, which has now led to elections taking place within the next 90 days governed by an interim government. In Chile, you have a democratically elected president who's had civil unrest, based on unpopular policies, which he has even defend the policies or find a way to make amends with the opposition in order to advance the country.
GVS: I’ve been in Colombia, on the border with Venezuela. We got an awful lot of unrest in Venezuela, people pouring across the border trying to get away from Maduro. How does Maduro fit into this, all this unrest?
CT: I think Maduro’s a massive destabilizing effect in the Americas across the hemisphere. and not only Maduro but also the Cuban influence in Venezuela and across the Americas has led to a lot of destabilizing effects.
GVS: is Cuba causing a destabilization in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and what, Venezuela, you said?
CT: well in Venezuela absolutely. and some of the other countries there’s obviously allegations that the Cuban influence is involved in Ecuador, Ecuador canceled last week the Cuban doctor program under the auspices that a lot of those doctors were actually Cuban intelligence officers. in Colombia and Bolivia, they found Cuban doctors, quote unquote, with bags full of cash, which were also expelled from for both countries the week prior. So I think there is an underlying Cuban influence, how big or how small, I think it's yet to be determined.
GVS: why do so many of these nations have problems? or am I just focused on them? If you look at South America, and you look at North America, they're just two different- they have very much in common, they have oceans, they have mountains, what's the what's the problem in South America?
CT: I would say the problem across a lot of countries, in studying America, what's the biggest differentiator between the United States of America and the rest of the Americas, really it’s the rule of law. Why do they have the same beautiful Pacific water the same beautiful Atlantic water, all these natural resources, oil, minerals, great people, hard working people, why are they so different in the United States when it comes to democracy and economic success? IT’s the rule of law.
GVS: looking at South America now, is South America right now with all the protests collapsing? or awakening? Or these are good signs? or bright future? Or these are terribly turbulent times and we have good reason to be worried?
CT: I think the next few months will determine that. Right now protests in and of itself I think are a good strong side of a democracy. The fact that people can protest in the street, that they can voice their concerns towards their government the fact that they’re peaceful, in some of the cases that hasn't been the case but a lot of times it has.
GVS: but pro Morales protesters have now gone to the streets, saying they want Morales back and it's not particularly peaceful and a lot of these people are getting killed in these protests.
CT: some happen, And I think we have to put some of these numbers, it's in the 10s of people that are getting killed. which is obviously much more than is acceptable, but it's not the hundreds or the thousands, especially a country of millions of people. and the Morales protesters they want him back, but Morales resigned and left under his free will.
GVS: is the problem in South America going to be visited on the United States in any way? What's the collateral impact?
CT: I think the collateral impact, we see it every single day across cities in America. When you have a failed state in Venezuela, in which transnational criminal organizations operate with impunity, and they're able to ship fentanyl through our southern borders and are able to come up over southern borders into Chicago, New York and Miami and San Diego and Seattle, the American people suffer. And I think that's the issue that we're facing when, why does Venezuela matter, why would someone in the middle of nowhere in any city, United States, why would they care about what's happening in the middle of nowhere Venezuela? Because when those failed states fail, the economic and political and social and criminal tragedies, don't end within their borders. They end across the Americas and unfortunately sometimes even into our country.
GVS: and Of course the immigration issue, because people are trying to raise their families or live and thrive. They want to get out of these places where there's so much danger, or whether there's no food for medicine.
CT: Absolutely. When you have a failed state of Venezuela that's dropping kilos of cocaine or fentanyl in a rural community in Guatemala, and now these narcos are killing and murdering people in those communities, no one wants to live in those circumstances. so it causes more pressure on our southern border more migration, and some of the tragedies, speaking to some of the migrants, of what they encounter on their path to the United States. It isn't on a subway cart, it isn’t in the backseat of a car with an Uber driver. It's with transnational criminal organizations with coyotes, a lot of them are human smuggled, some of them are, their personal rights are violated. it's a very difficult situation.
(GRETA)
So how do we make sense of what the ambassador calls “a difficult situation”?
And what is the impact to surrounding countries?
Cynthia Arnson is one of the foremost experts on the politics and the economies of Spanish-speaking countries in the Western Hemisphere.
She is Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
She has written books and articles on war, peace and human rights in Central and South America.
And she has testified many times before the US Congress.
((Cynthia Arnson Interview))
GVS: Thank you for joining us.
CA: A pleasure! Thanks for the invitation.
GVS: Okay, the common theme seems to be terrible economy, corruption, and massive protests it's all happening at least right now, what's going on?
CA: Well, I would agree with the previous commentators that there is very much an economic basis to all of this, the years of the 2000s a decade of the 2000s from about 2003 maybe until 2012 was really a golden decade for Latin America; particularly, South America, those countries that had basic commodities copper soy iron ore benefited from a huge increase in demand from China. At a time when the Chinese economy was growing something like 10 or 11%, a year. So, this was a time when massive numbers of people throughout the region were lifted out of poverty. And I think that there was a World Bank study a couple of years ago that indicated that for the first time in Latin American history as a result of this commodities boom. The number of people in the middle class was, was greater than the number of people in poverty that had never before happened, but I think what we're seeing now is another piece of the World Bank study which indicated that the largest class in Latin America consisted of those people who were vulnerable, who were one paycheck away from falling back into poverty. So, overall, in the region growth rates are very mediocre, in some cases in Brazil for example it's in recession Venezuela, as you've mentioned is collapsing and the cost of living continues to rise. Wages are stagnating, and I think that that undergirding of discontent because at the same time, people's expectations went way up as well.
GVS: You talk about expectations I mean I think Venezuela I've been to the border and seeing the people stream across in Venezuela. In that case, there's been so much promise to the people in terms of money, and then of course the price of oil went down and the government then couldn't give them money now we've gotten extreme inflation in Haiti and something that the ambassador mentioned, is rule of law and I've been to Haiti a number of times and they're not even paying their police officers and in the places that I go in Haiti you know it is really you know there is extreme poverty, I mean, let me see I've got a rule of law problem to at least Haiti is that true in these other places or not?
CA: Well, you certainly have rule of law problems throughout the hemisphere these massive corruption scandals that have exploded into public view over the last few years. You know if they're not dealt with, if people who are guilty or accused of committing these acts of corruption or not on, do not have to pay a price I mean it contributes to this sense that the government doesn't work that institutions don't work the democracy for all of its promise doesn't work
GVS: So, what do you do I mean I use Haiti as an example because that's the place I visit so much as I look and I think like, what can we do what can happen there? How does it get better for them?
CA: Well, Haiti is really, I think, a case that's very different than say what's happening in Bolivia what's happening in Chile or what's happening in Venezuela. Haiti has suffered a crisis of governance for about as long as I can remember in my professional life. This is a place where politicians have not been able to come together to provide for the common good to provide any semblance of clean government, and it's not that the international community hasn't tried, there have been massive efforts there have been U.N. missions. And so I'm not sure that I can say what the answer is in Haiti, but to continue to side with the people in civil society who are asking for clean government.
GVS: In the minute we have let me ask you the impossible question, how do you measure what the United States responsibility is with for a moral or even self-protection, what is the responsibility to this region?
CA: I think the responsibility of the United States is enormous. These are our closest neighbors. This is an area where US businesses have a huge presence. And I think we have an interest in having stable and prosperous governments in the hemisphere or we feel the effects.
GVS: Is it akin to the Arab Spring or is this just something very different?
CA: I think this is very different. There are all kinds of demands for changes and it's very, very important not to mix apples and oranges and trying to understand that there are common grievances about the way government doesn't work, the way the quality of public services, health and education is inferior to private health and education and people are fed up with that. But, what is going on in Chile and the demand for a new constitution is related to a Constitution, from the years of the dictatorship in Bolivia people are outraged that Evo Morales apparently stole an election, and that's just different from what's going on in in Haiti or in Venezuela.
GVS: Thank you very much, Cynthia Arnson Latin American program at the Wilson Center. Thank you very much.
CA: Thank you.
((CLOSING THOUGHTS))
And before we go, Some closing thoughts on another serious issue roiling South America - one that could have even more serious consequences for the planet – unless we do something about it.
The Amazon rainforest, the so-called lungs of the planet is still burning. Researchers in Brazil say nearly 77-hundred square kilometers of rainforest have been destroyed in a 12-month span ending in July.
Brazil’s environmental minister confirmed that number saying that illegal logging and mining operations in the jungle are to blame.
Environmental activists say that much deforestation will have a negative effect on the planet’s oxygen supply. But there are others who insist that assessment is inaccurate and overblown.
Regardless of who is right and who is wrong, here's another way to look at what we have lost.
The area of rainforest that has been destroyed in the Amazon, just this year is equivalent to the size of of New York City - times 12.
That's right. An area 12 times the size of New York City.
That is a lot of deforestation, and only what the world has lost in 2019. And 2019 is not over.
Environmental experts say we can still save the Amazon. But time is running out...
That's all the time we have for today.
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