With just two months to go until Election Day, the race for the White House is not the only key decision American voters will make. Six of the thirty-five U.S. Senate seats up for re-election this November are rated by the non-partisan Cook Political Report as true toss-ups – giving both parties the opportunity to win control of the U.S. Senate. A Republican loss of the Senate majority could have a wide-ranging impact on the second term of a Donald Trump presidency or the agenda of a President Joe Biden.
Democrats will need to win control of three to four seats to win that majority. Here’s a look at a handful of states with some of the most interesting races this election cycle:
Alabama
Any national outlook on the makeup of the U.S. Senate starts in the state with the most vulnerable Senate Democrat. The assumption is that Democrats start one down in the win column because of Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville’s lead in the polls over Democratic incumbent Doug Jones, who won his special election in this strongly Republican state in 2017.
Tuberville, a former college football coach, has enjoyed enthusiastic support from President Donald Trump on Twitter and in person at campaign rallies. He beat Trump’s former Attorney General Jeff Sessions after a lengthy primary season and has been leading Jones in the polls by double digits all summer long.
North Carolina
Part of the Republican National Convention was held in Charlotte, North Carolina last month and for good reason; the state is considered a bellwether for American politics because of its shifting demographics and mix of rural, suburban and urban areas.
“North Carolina is very much a microcosm of the nation as a whole, because our state is very bitterly divided,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “It's an even division between the partisans. And so, the likelihood is both sides will get anywhere from 43 to 45, 46 percent of their respective votes. But it's that last sliver of persuadable voters that could flip from one side to the other that really makes North Carolina as competitive as any place else in the country.”
That dynamic makes North Carolina’s Senate race one of the most important in the country. A Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state senator, leading Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis by 4.5 percentage points, with a CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in late August showing Cunningham with a lead of ten percentage points.
Bitzer says Tillis’ support of President Trump will play a key role in the voters’ decision as well as issues dominating the presidential race, including the state of the economy and the course of the coronavirus pandemic.
“The national dynamics play out here in North Carolina, particularly for the U.S. Senate race, just because Thom Tillis was so closely aligned to President Trump before COVID. But when COVID hit, he kind of started to tack more towards the middle, not really talking about Donald Trump. But I think that die is pretty much cast in terms of the relationship between the two,” said Bitzer.
Maine
In Maine, voters will have to decide if Senator Susan Collins has maintained her reputation as an independent voice in the Republican Party through a tumultuous stretch on Capitol Hill that involved her casting key votes in the Senate impeachment trial of President Trump earlier this year and the Supreme Court confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.
“Susan Collins has become more of a national figure,” notes Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs program at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management. “She's kind of become the standard bearer of enabling Trump in an administration where she's supposed to be that moderate voice in a typically liberal state where she hasn't really held up to - at least on the Democratic side - up to that bargain.”
Democratic challenger state representative Sara Gideon got an early fundraising boost from criticizing Collins’ votes. Gideon also received one of the few speaking slots featuring Senate candidates at the Democratic National Convention last month.
Polling throughout the summer has shown Gideon in the lead, with a Real Clear Politics Average polls ending in early August showing her leading the four-term Senator by 4.5 percentage points.
Iowa
Early in the campaign season Iowa was not rated a toss-up, but voters' opinions have solidified, and the race has become tight between incumbent Republican Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield. The latest Monmouth poll conducted in early August shows Ernst up by only one percentage point.
This week, the number of coronavirus deaths became a topic of debate in the race when Ernst told an Iowa voter she was “so skeptical” about the number of deaths directly attributable to the coronavirus. Greenfield tweeted a response to Senator Ernst, writing “It's appalling for you to say you're ‘so skeptical’ of the toll this pandemic has on our families and communities across Iowa.” According John Hopkins University data, the virus has claimed more than 1,100 deaths in Iowa.
Voters’ views of how public officials are handling the coronavirus pandemic will likely impact Senate races nationwide, says Burgat.
“We're waiting to see how folks either defend the president and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic or whether they're trying to distance themselves a little bit. And that'll depend on how much it's impacted the state and defined (by) how much that that particular Senator - Joni Ernst in this example - is willing to attach herself to a president who by and large hasn't received glowing reviews about how he's handled this pandemic,” he said.
Other toss-ups
Other key races that are rated complete toss-ups by Cook Political Report include Colorado, Georgia and Montana. While there’s little reliable polling data for the Colorado Senate race, Burgat says the race between Republican incumbent Cory Gardner and Democratic challenger John Hickenlooper is one to watch. Gardner – who won his last Senate race by just two points in 2014 – is the last remaining Republican statewide official in a state that was once considered an election battleground.
“He's facing [John Hickenlooper], a former Democratic governor with great name recognition, a very wealthy man individually who's able to self-fund. But he's also faced a contentious primary where he got dinged by some ethics violations. So, we're waiting to see how much that impacted his race in what normally would be the most vulnerable Senate race in the country,” Burgat says.
